JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat - 8/21/19

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 8/21/19

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Bort

1:51

How big of a problem is the anchoring bias in prospect analysis, especially when a guy like Tarik Skubal comes along?

Kiley McDaniel

1:52

It's more of a feature than a bug. When Austin Riley comes up and goes nuts and every Riley comment in the chat is we were too low on him and a month later it's we were too high on him, having some inertia to changing rankings on short-term performances is good

1:54

Skubal was a totally different type of pitcher in college (stuff with limited command), but still good, then blew out, then couldn't throw strikes and had average stuff in his draft year, then started performing some this year...we should want to see some sustained performance and health when he's basically never done it before. And now he's performed for a few months and we moved him up once it was clear he's now this type of pitcher.

So I'm fine with that process, because it's how the people that make million dollar decisions on these guys do it, too.

1:55

If a team was confronted with a potential Skubal trade a month ago, push some resources into making a decision and get comfortable with him a month before we did. But we're also keeping tabs on about 2000 guys in the minors and there are no 7-figure decisions, so we'll be a little slower than the quickest team will be on in-season promotions

1:56

There are certainly times that guys without a profile don't get a fair shake simply because they didn't have a profile, but after some Jose Ramirez's, we see the hole and give those guys the benefit of the doubt/dig deeper. Luis Arraez is a good example.

And we also have access to the sort of info in selected instances that we didn't have a few years ago, so I'd like to think the better process will mean better results on the performance over track record/hype/tools types

randomdude

1:56

What can you tell me about Graham Ashcraft? Seems like he's got great stuff based on his player page, but i cant find any info on him, and his college track record is super underwhelming.

Kiley McDaniel

1:57

High profile HS arm up to 99 with sharp breaker, no command, TJ in college, hot start in 2019 at UAB, tailed off, reliever look

pretty good spin rates, some upside, but likely 1-2 inning type and some teams were scared off by medical past

Jake

1:58

Who’s the guy that people aren’t talking about right now that they should be?

Kiley McDaniel

1:59

For the record, there's like 20 of these questions in the queue every week. It's a bad question to basically ask "who are you wrong about" since I obviously can't know that? And if you mean guys we have rated higher than others, that's also a bad question since we're the place with the easiest access to what we currently think about every notable player below the MLB level, so you can pretty easily compare that to whatever other people have said

Jake

2:00

U do sandwich rankings too?

Kiley McDaniel

2:00

oh i do it all honey

Hoser

2:00

At what point in your prospect list do you have to start looking the guys up to refresh your memory?

Kiley McDaniel

2:00

there's some 40s i'm not very familiar with on the teams i don't know as well. there's some teams where i can rattle off 10 other just-missed names off the top of my head after the 30-40 that we list

Eppo

2:01

Have you seen Johan Rojas? Is he toolsy?

Kiley McDaniel

2:01

No! Yes!

Tommy

2:01

Where do you expect Hugh Fisher to fit in Vandy's staff next year? Hickman and Rocker look like locks for the weekend. Eder got more meaningful postseason innings in '19. Leiter, Brown, Smith and others need innings. There's a lot of mouths to feed!

Kiley McDaniel

2:01

I think Fisher may be the Dane Dunning type that fills in on the weekend when someone is hurt, maybe starts some midweek games, relieves on weekends, etc.

2:02

I would guess Rocker, Leiter, Hickman are weekend, Eder, Smith and Brown are pen

Fisher could go either way

IsIt2020Yet?

2:04

Do you do bad question rankings?

Kiley McDaniel

2:04

oooh that would be a solid way to own the morons that complain about how i answered their question incorrectly

Todd

2:05

I was watching this prospect in Iowa yesterday. Seems like he's got an effortless power stroke, deploying an optimal launch angle in his swing. Know anything about him? Any major league potential?

Kiley McDaniel

2:05

i heard he was a lefty?

Joser

2:05

Just want to see you guys are awesome and your coverage is 2nd to none.

Enlightening Round

2:05

Can't usually make to chats, have to read the transcripts but thank you for ALL of your work and content

Kiley McDaniel

2:05

that was almost too earnest, but i'll take it! thanks

Federal Officers

2:05

We're looking for a Mr. Gorland, have you seen him?

Gorland

2:05

Kiley kiley kiley I am not here, please be cool man. Just say I'm not here.

2:06

Oh and apparently I'm supposed to put on my goody two shoes and pay taxes like some kind of boy scout

Kiley McDaniel

2:06

hmmm feels like we're in range

Mike from queens

2:06

Hey Kiley, first time long time, if Adley Rutschman comes up and is terrible can’t we say Adley was rushed, Man? Thanks, I’ll hang up and listen.

Walter Sobchak

2:06

Would you care to help heal this country's racial divide by comping Mike Cameron and Josh Lowe?

Klews

2:06

IS A POP TART A RAVIOLI

Matt Damon

2:06

MATT DAMON

Kiley McDaniel

2:07

see you guys next week!

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