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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 8/21/19
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Robert
1:24
When you were with the Braves was it immediately obvious that Acuña was special?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:26
Yeah I've mentioned it before but Victor Robles was the hyped guy out of the Appy League in 2015, which is when I joined ATL. Acuna's peak exit velo as a 17 year old was something insane over 110 mph already and Robles was more what you'd think a hit-over-power young CF would be, which is obviously much lower. Robles had a nice gradual improvement in that area while Acuna started much higher and still grew from there
Lazarus
1:27
What does peak Dylan Carlson look like? Averaging 520 with a 440 ISO, right? (I kid)
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:27
He can hit but it isn't bonkers power, though you could see a 60 hit, 60 power, plenty of walks corner OF
1:29
so like .280/.350/.480 or so?
sandlotgiant1
1:32
Who are some of your early favorites from the 2020 international class?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:33
We mentioned some of the top guys in the class back in February: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/updated-july-2-prospect-rankings/
and also the 2021 class, if you're really insane
those names are all still top of the class types
Carlos Colmenarez is probably in front at this point
Jeffrey
1:34
Are pitch grades median values, like overall FV?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:34
the present grade is mean of the quality of present pitches
1:35
future grade is what we think the mean will be in a couple years
1:36
future ones are a little more optimistic, since a 50 CB that never flashes 55 vs. one that flashes 60 should be noted differently, even if it's somewhat likely they end up settling closer to the same in quality in a few years
Bo
1:36
Encouraged by Vaughn Grissom's GCL start. Can he stick at short?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:36
Possible, maybe 30%? Not that laterally quick, but the hands/arm are fine
Josh
1:37
Kendall Logan Simmons has started to heat up at the plate. Any late season buzz there?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:37
He was just added to the Phillies list this week
Big power, used to have no idea at the plate, now has a new swing that has him more athletic and on time, so he's got a shot
Roger
1:38
No question, just an observation: Of Atlanta's $262M farm value, $197.5M of it resides in AAA.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:38
Yeah, we're actually gonna add some crosstabs to the Farm Rankings in the offseason, like upper/lower level concentration, average age, amount of upside, etc.
if you want to treat the farm system like a mutual fund and not get too detailed on any one player, this would allow you to do it
Jim Leyland Palmer
1:40
Could Tarik Skubal be an elite shut-down option coming out of the bullpen?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:41
Plus fastball with TrackMan friendly characteristics, two offspeed pitches around average, throws strikes and is aggressive. I guess that could be fastball-heavy reliever, but he seems more suited to turning over a lineup once or twice
1:42
In that Bryse Wilson territory where 1 inning (3 pitches and feel) or 6 innings (no plus secondary for 2nd/3rd time thru lineup) are both not really a perfect fit
Hinkie
1:43
Any big movers (up or down) for the 2020 draft after their summer on the Cape or the CNT?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:43
South Carolina RHP Carmen Mlodzinski is probably the biggest riser from those two places https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft/summary?s...
Jim Leyland Palmer
1:45
When would it be appropriate to get excited about the Tiger's two big 2018 J2 guys, Reyes & De La Cruz?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:45
They're both on our Tigers rankings so I guess? DLC is a risky power-over-hit RF, Reyes has more stick and defense
Tigers prospect twitter also seems to have been much more active the last year or so
Bearry
1:46
Ex-Rays coming up right and left. Which of Gibaut, Solak, Burke, Fraley, and Wood all up with McCarthy and Sanchez soon to follow. Who hurts the most?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:46
Sanchez is the only one we think is more than a 45 or 50 type
1:47
and there's some risk to Sanchez becoming a 55-60 FV type, so maybe none?
Chicken Wars
1:47
Popeyes sandwich vs Chick fil a vs Wendys Spicy ?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:48
actually going to try the popeyes one sometime soon bc I'm curious
Evan
1:48
This must be so stressful for you, to be in the business of constantly making predictions in a field that's pretty hazy to begin with, and then inviting a bunch of people to question you on those predictions.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:49
never really thought of it that way, but i'll take any sympathy you guys want to give me
Matt
1:49
Hi Kiley!  If the decision was yours, how would you personally choose to allocate your international bonus spending?  Would you spend it all on the best talent (maybe top 5 rank)?  Spread it across several top 20-30 talents?  Try hard to trade for additional bonus room?  Would your philosophy change dependent on the perceived talent level of the very top guys? Thanks!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:49
the talent dictates the strategy
1:50
all things being equal, i'd spread it around b/c there's so much projection on even the most polished players. but if i think there's a truly elite guy for most of my pool, i'm changing it up
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