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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 8/8/18
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:11
Hello! I'm now stationed home for a nice stretch after seeing East Coast Pro (2019/2020 draft class high school showcase in Hoover, AL) and Eric is currently taking the tail end of HS showcase season on at Area Codes in Long Beach, then the PG Game in San Diego.
12:12
Draft stuff takes a break after the Cape wraps up so the chillins can go back to school, then some HS stuff fires back up in october for a few events before they basically disappear until Late Jan/early Feb
12:13
I'll be taking in some FSL, including seeing Brusdar tomorrow after being rained out twice already.
12:14
If you want to know where we rank any notable figure in non MLB baseball, we have a fresh update of THE BOARD right here: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx
12:15
Lastly for the intro, I'm working on some stuff related to what should change about baseball--so throw some stuff at me here. I'm thinking changing the draft, int'l signings, marketing the players, salary cap/floor vs. luxury tax, blackouts on MLB.tv, pace of play, all the stuff that bothers you lemme hear it
Now to your questions
Guest
12:15
Any insight as to what range in THE BOARD the prospects in the Fiers trade might land?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:15
I would guess 35/40 range, nothing too notable, but don't have inside knowledge there
Greg
12:15
Hey Kiley, how hard was Allard throwing when he was drafted? I remember seeing mid 90s numbers for him, and if that's true, is there any reason his velocity has dropped so much? Maybe the back surgeries? I know it's only two outings, but I'm trying to figure out how he even made it to Triple A with his current stuff.
chattachop
12:15
Braves have a deep farm system with lauded prospects, but we just saw Allard struggle in his 2nd game of work. It seems like our depth is primarily in the middle rotation and that we have few top of rotation arms in the wings. Would you say that Kyle Wright is our sole projectible TOR starter?
Five Finger Freddie
12:15
Thoughts on Kolby Allard's first couple starts? It seems like his command is off and his fastball is a pretty flat 90 mph. Seems like he pitches with a razor thin margin for error.
chris
12:16
A Braves writer defended Allard's shellacking by saying he's a consensus top 100 prospect -- but it seems he's been trending downward for two years despite decent numbers in AA & AAA. Has he ever shown a plus fastball since debuting as a pro and does he even project as a 5 at this point?
Joe simpson
12:16
Is it reasonable to think that kolby Allard could still add a tick or two to his FB at this point? Is that even his biggest problem?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:16
So this week's contrived problem with the Braves system is fans freaking out that Kolby Allard might not be good. This was like 1/3 of those questions. Let's take these in order:
12:18
Allard was 90-93 as an amateur and was 92-96 for one inning in the PG All American game in August before the draft. He's basically been 88-94 every outing of his life except for that one, but he was an athletic 16-year-old with three pitches and feel so, despite not being projectable, some thought he would mature into more velo. The back issue didn't help, but that was always a bit optimistic. This is about what he is.
12:19
If you define top of the rotation as #1 or #2 starters like how scouts define those things, there's about 10 #1's and like 20 os so #2's. A system can't have a bunch of frontline guys when there's 30 on Earth, so a bunch of mid-rotation, 2.5-3.0 WAR pitchers is as good as you're going to do.
12:21
Eric and I are wrong about plenty, but Braves fans seemed catatonic that we didn't have Allard and Bryse Wilson higher. I hope both succeed but Allard sits 88-92 with solid average stuff and feel and Wilson's two off-speed pitches are average to a hair above on good days. These sorts of things typically don't work for even mid-rotation starters. Now, they both could end up being that or even better, but this is why scouts (and generally us) prefer to have more raw stuff, or at least projectability to get that stuff, when we're projecting impact arms. Both will be productive big leaguers, though, because feel and makeup and competitiveness still matter.
17 year old, Wander Franco
12:21
Am I the future No.1 prospect in baseball?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:21
Certainly hitting all the checkpoints so far
Andy
12:23
How often do prospects develop the skill to take walks?  Is this skill projectable from the minors?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:25
There's been a number of studies that show that walks at the lower levels of the minors aren't too predictive, since those pitchers have trouble throwing strikes. The list of players who improve walk rates from the low minors to high minors is pretty short and is largely toolsy, wild swingers who tone things down and get to around average walk rates when they mature.  This appears to be easier to accomplish when you have limited baseball reps (multi-sport athlete, J2 guy that didn't play many games), which is why I sometimes refer to pitch selection as concrete and you want to change it before it dries.
:/
12:25
What's a good way to get started writing about prospects without being able to travel and see them? Just see who you're able to?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:26
Yep, even if you want to be more of a reporter type and less of a scout. Being around the game helps you get better at writing about it, meeting people, seeing if it's worth it to you to throw a decade of your life at trying to make it, etc.
Eric A Shortenhagen
12:28
Based on performance thus far, where would you draft Nolan Gorman if the 2018 class were re-drafted?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
We had him ranked 7th predraft https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018mlb&type=0&pos=all... so we already think he was really undervalued on draft day
Miley DcKaniel
12:30
Is Joey Bart the best catcher in the minor leagues?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:31
We have him as 3rd best, but it isn't a huge margin between them https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018updated&type=0&pos...
TopCat
12:31
Would you consider putting together a piece that provides the "Trading Value" of prospects? I thoroughly enjoyed the "Trade Value" series. I know the proposed endeavor may be a tall order, but it would be so intriguing. Not just based on FV, but the whole needs and demands part of the value.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:31
Not sure how different it would be than our rankings already. Sure, there's some types of players the industry or specific teams tend to value differently than us, but our base for the rankings is industry-wide trade value, which we then tweak based on what we think
DRL
12:32
Im not sure if I missed it or if it was ever said, but now that he’s signed, what caused Liberator to slide so much and end up signing for under slot?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:32
Short version is the agent did an awful job, according to at least a half dozen sources. Didn't want to say anything until he had signed and didn't have the NCAA to worry about.
steve
12:32
thoughts on DERMIS getting converted to a two way guy?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:34
Had heard a few weeks ago a conversion could happen, didn't realize they would do it both ways, at least for a bit. It's more common than you'd think with big bonus J2 bats that have huge power/arm strength and never quite work out the contact part.
Dunt
12:34
SSS, but Bryce Bush has been absolutely dominating since being drafted in June. What kind of reports did you have on him pre-draft?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:35
Some questions on the contact/mechanical consistency, but plus raw and a chance to play 3B
DJ Tanner
12:35
Which 2017 International prospects (not named Wander Franco), look to be better than advertised and should rise up the ranks quickly?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:36
Luis Robert, Ronny Mauricio, Kristian Robinson, Julio Rodriguez
Dan
12:36
Trey Wingenter a potential closer?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:36
Up to 100 with life, but not sure the command is there for that
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