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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 9/11/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:24
Hello from ATL. Scout is eating lunch and I'll get to that after I'm done with you people
12:25
We've done some board adjusting and video on the usual FG_Prospects twitter and fangraphs instagram but are mostly doing behind the scenes work now that you'll be aware of in the coming weeks
some reading, if you're so inclined:
Rosenthal on the Rockies and trading Arenado?: https://theathletic.com/1202375/2019/09/11/rosenthal-after-the-teams-s...
Sawchik on if the minor leagues are necessary: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-we-even-need-minor-league-base...
12:26
to your questions:
Gumby
12:26
What percent of your working time do you spend speaking with scouts and other team personnel to collect information as opposed to directly scouting yourself? And does a lot of the consolidation of opinions happen in the offseason?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
Scouting myself goes in fits and starts. The six to eight weeks before the draft, I'm out all the time since that's the best way to collect information for a number of reasons. Just after that in the window for showcase season/college summer/Futures Game there's also a lot of in person stuff. The rest of the year is more based on need and focus. As I mentioned at the top, lots of behind the scenes new things are happening (rather than incrementally changing things, which is boring and would drive me nuts) so there hasn't been as much bandwidth lately for just going to games and being open to discovery. I went to the ATL/CLE Triple-A playoff game last week because there were a ton of guys less than a hour from me, so I couldn't pass that up.
12:29
When I tell non-baseball friends how my day usually goes, they're surprised when I say "well I do this and then that, workout, cook, etc. but then if someone calls and it's something that demands a 2-hour conversation, then that will eat up a lot of my day, but if I try to schedule it for later, it may never happen."
That may not be the best way to handle things, but I have tons of flexibility so I like to try to take advantage of it
12:31
That also means there's lots of weird off-topic calls in the middle of the day, like when someone called me last week to tell me they heard Dombrowski would be out soon (this is almost a week before it happened). I didn't really buy it, then made some calls and it seemed like it had a good chance to happen, but at least weeks later, then poof it happened...and there wasn't really anything I could report. There's like dozens of those things that randomly pop up a month, a handful end up being exactly true like that one and you guys hear about one or two of them.
Kiley DcManiel
12:31
Have you ever sourced info on a prospect from a non-scout person? Like an umpire? They may be too close to get good reads on mechanics and such, but they might have insight about makeup. Seems like a Cal League umpire for example would get more looks at a player than a scout could
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:32
If in the stadium, I like talking to the people that are at the park every day in a non-scouting capacity since they have a better sense for the personality and makeup than I can ever get in a few games
But if you listen to those people too much, you'll look pretty silly. I would submit the scouting observations of opposing managers are about as useful as a rival broadcaster--it's just not what either one is assigned to or is good at doing.
Dan
12:32
Brennen Davis looks pretty incredible for a 19year old, two sport, first full professional season. You guys gonna bump his FV?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:33
We're locked now, but I bet he's a 50 FV in the offseason
matt
12:33
has jasson dominguez started playing in instructional league yet. If he has have you heard anything about how he looks so far
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:34
Instructs happen in late Sept/Oct and I haven't seen the NYY roster but I have to believe he'll be on it. More teams are having closed instructs with no games, but NYY and the FL teams around there seem to always play at least a few games per week.
All I've learned from his IG is he loves aguacate, so he's def getting those healthy fats
Christian
12:34
What did you think about Travis Sawchik's article on if there's a need for the minors in developing players?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:35
Yes, very interesting. It's been discussed a lot in an open-ended sort of way in my circles, both as a larger part of CBA/improving the game and also how to actually make players better.
12:38
I'm generally against incremental change and doing things one way because that's how they've been done, but there's also 6-7 levels worth of about 200 minor league teams with stadiums and contracts and employees. Cutting half of them and expanding spring training complexes and making the soccer model happen would take a really long time to see all the way through. It's a nine figure expenditure league wide all to improve some players at the margins, screw over 100 minor league cities and save six figures per team on MILB salary. The finances make it like parallel parking the Titanic in Manhattan.
Chris
12:39
Jim callis thinks Julio and kelenic will both be top 10 prospects next year. What are your thoughts on these two and what the mariners should do with their excess outfield prospect depth?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:40
You could argue Kelenic should be around 20th now, near Drew Waters and over half the guys ahead of that spot are now in AAA or MLB and will thus graduate before him. So just logically, that answer is yes.
12:42
Julio is 9th among all teenagers (pretty tightly packed, so a hot month or two in 2020 could get him to 5th or so) and you can project a few more guys to emerge/be drafted but that also logically puts him in position to be the next Jo Adell if he continues on this trajectory
12:44
And the OF depth is those two blue-chippers that are 1-2 years away, then other guys like Kyle Lewis and Jake Fraley and Braden Bishop that are either part-time types or wait-and-see guys. I always say having too many good players isn't a problem and this is far from being something that needs to be solved, particularly for a club like Seattle that's in asset collection mode.
Joe
12:44
Any rumors on where the Braves Hi A team may relocate?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:44
Has to be to the new ST home in North Port. Maybe a one-year fill-in if the timelines don't line up?
Jaffe rhymes with Taffy
12:44
Kiley - in your opinion should there be more of a backlash against MLB for this alleged juiced ball?  Have people just become conditioned to this kind of manipulation from 'authorities'?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:45
In general, people saying "the game was better back in my day" or "kids these days SMH" or "they changed a thing I like, so I'm mad" get the most eye-rolly eye-rolls from me.
12:48
You could argue that the juiced ball and the type of play that this and the more power-based approach to pitching and hitting have created is objectively worse BUT the main case for that is "it's worse because it's different" AND the main prescription is more weak grounders and small ball WHICH was already the worst aesthetic part of baseball according to ANYONE who's being honest SO I'm gonna need something stronger before I think anything needs to be actively changed in some way.
12:49
And if you could prescribe 50 years ago how to make baseball purely more fun to watch, wouldn't it be more home runs and more velocity and nastier breaking balls? This is akin to (generally older) people saying basketball is worse because it's so iso-dominated and there's too many 3's but using the "50 years ago, what would you change?" rubric, dunks and 3's and elite athletes matching up 1-on-1 would be the answer
12:50
so it just seems like any change in sport or app UI or whatever will have a solid 20% "this is great!" and a solid 20% "this sucks" and a solid 60% "I like a good bit of this but also don't love change, but lemme see how I feel later"
12:51
And no one represents the 60% in media because people aren't drawn to milquetoast, measured opinions
in conclusion, get off my lawn
Not Evan
12:52
How do the mechanics work when a prospect's career ends without reaching the majors? Like is there a particular day when hundreds get the call that their team doesn't have a spot for them anymore and they've been released?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:54
Generally they lose playing time at AA or AAA and in the later stages in-season when there's a roster crunch or at end of spring training when rosters are set, they get the talk with their player dev director and it's usually a lot of nodding and "yeah, I know" by the player but inside a lot of turmoil about a stage of their professional life ending. When you lose playing time or the PD guy asks if you ever thought of coaching, you get an idea that the clock is running out.
Tacitus Kilgore
12:55
What do you see Josh Donaldson signing for in the off-season? He's been great and seems to fit Atlanta. And what's your too-early-but-I'm-asking-anyway guess on how the Braves outfield would look between the AAA kids and Riley/Markakis/Ender if JD stays in Atlanta?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:57
Seems like JD likes it in ATL but you'll be make a decision on his age-34 season, coming off a 5 WAR year with Austin Riley behind him and Pache and Waters coming to the OF, so you can't just move them out there. It feels like all four will settle into their spots (Pache CF, Waters RF, Riley 3B) and with Acuna, Swanson, Albies, Freeman there, you don't really have a spot and they're all at the minimum except for Freeman, so there's tons of free money around.
12:59
Donaldson is probably in line for a 2 or 3 year deal and paying close to retail for an older guy off a late-peak type year doesn't seem like the sort of move ATL would make. They would probably make a one-year+option offer, he hits the market and ATL would be a backstop if his market craters, then otherwise spend that money on pitching or trades or opportunistic low-dollar stuff as backups if the kids don't pan out
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