JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 9/11/19

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Kiley McDaniel

1:01

But you could also see ATL being all-in on Donaldson, bringing him back at a slight discount from market and treat Riley/Pache/Waters as 3 guys for 2 starting OF spots and the Donaldson backup.

Sir Nerdlington

1:01

How do the fall league rosters get constructed? E.g. can each team send a certain number? How do 'they' ensure the right number of players for each position?

Kiley McDaniel

1:02

Each team has a set number and the AFL communicates to the clubs what positions are filled once the priority (2-3 must guys per team) are in place. After that it's more a balancing act of which guy goes to winter league, which guys rest, this guy will get a month of instructs and that's enough for him, this guy gets a part-time/taxi role in AFL because they need an OF, etc.

1:02

I guess its not really that important, but any thought of including prospects' peak ranking on The Board somewhere, and/or their ranking each year?

Kiley McDaniel

1:03

Already there! Click on their FV (like click the number "70" for Wander Franco) and the historic rankings pop up

1:03

Eta for pache and waters? No chance the Braves call them up this year I’m assuming?

Kiley McDaniel

1:04

No shot this year. Either could be a "2 weeks into 2020" callup like Acuna was, but I think it'll be more like Super 2 cutoff a month or two later

And if it's a half-season with neither of them, then Riley/Markakis in the OF and Donaldson at 3B makes more sense, because half season can become most of the season at some point.

Booker

1:04

I think in a podcast last year you and Eric guessed at which players might shoot up the draft rankings with good seasons, and as I recall Eric picked Hunter Bishop (good job Eric). Any top candidates for such a jump this year?

Kiley McDaniel

1:05

Yeah Bishop and Misner were both examples of toolsy guys that didn't play the summer but with performance could jump last year, and both did, to varying degrees

1:06

I'm looking at our yet-to-be-published 2020 rankings for some guys below the top 30 that could go mid-first-round

Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina. Missed almost all of 2019, shoved on the Cape

1:07

Cole Kmet (LHP) and Joe Boyle (RHP), Notre Dame. Kmet is a SP-looking lefty that's also a TE on the football team and hasn't played much yet. Boyle has been up to 100 for a couple years and is slowly putting it together.

1:09

Hudson Haskin, CF, Tulane
Joey Wiemer, RF, Cincinnati
HS: Kyle Teel (C), Masyn Winn (SS/RHP), Mac Horvath (SS/RHP)

Jose

1:09

Who's the better long term OF for the Indians: Daniel Johnson or Ka'ai Tom?

Kiley McDaniel

1:09

Both probably role players but Johnson has more upside for sure

BeefLoaf108

1:09

Can you give us White Sox fans any thoughts on what to expect from new Scouting Director Mike Shirley? I know he's been with the org for awhile, but any insight into his preferences or approach?

Kiley McDaniel

1:10

You never really know, but sounds like it won't be markedly different than the drafts under Nick Hostetler

BlueJayMatt

1:12

Nate Pearson is shooting up other prospect rankings, is it just health concerns that is keeping him lower on yours? What does he need to do to move up THE BOARD other than just stay on the field?

Kiley McDaniel

1:15

1st 17 games (55 IP): 2.37 FIP
Last 8 games (46 IP): 3.41 FIP

1:16

Not to say he isn't good, but that context is important

if you take that mid-3's FIP and look at the 2019 stats of all the top 100 pitchers in the minors (we use xFIP there, but basically the same): https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board-scouting-and-stats?pos=&...

that's right in the middle

1:17

He isn't young for the level and we have him rated in the top third of that cohort

1:18

It's positive that he's stayed healthy and you could easily argue he should be about 20th instead of 36th, but I think there's a little too much scouting the stat line/radar gun in some other rankings

Would you rather have a guy that throws as hard as anyone on Earth (incredibly risky historically, both for reliever and injury reasons) or Kelenic or Waters? I'd take the hitters.

1:19

I've already talked about the Luis Robert stuff at length

1:21

If you're ranking players on a rubric where its tools + numbers and very little else considered, then you will have rankings that often don't agree with ours in the top 50 or so. We try to both predict the future of what we think the players will produce in terms of WAR and mirror what teams are valuing/thinking, so some guys like Pearson or Robert will appear that we're just late because this guy has power and goofy numbers or throws 103, but a computer can very easily replicate that process

and then why would you need us or the people we talk to?

and also can't we be better than that?

Jake, not from State Farm

1:21

What were your thoughts from that ATL/CLE AAA playoff game?

Kiley McDaniel

1:23

Ian Anderson still needs to clean up the fastball command a bit but otherwise should be ready to contribute next year. Pache still swings a lot but is really talented. Waters is a much safer bet to hit and hit early but also swings a little too much. The Cleveland guys didn't stand out a ton. Zimmer was off-balance, Logan Allen was solid in a boring "2 WAR 5 years in a row oh crap this guy is pretty good" sort of way

Ben

1:23

Do you see Austin Martin as a legit 1-1 candidate for next year?

Kiley McDaniel

1:23

Yes. Could be Dansby if he takes well to SS.

1:24

Some have suggested there's some Bregman-like qualities as well

Austin

1:24

Does Luis Medina have a chance to be the best Yankees arm in the system by this time next year?

Kiley McDaniel

1:24

Sure, lots of upside, not a clear winner of that title

Billy Beane

1:25

RE: Sawchik's description of the soccer model, do you think that the possible improvement of a handful of elite prospects would be worth giving up on random pop-up guys? I know it has also been discussed that it might make sense to have as many guys as possible. As an exmaple, the A's have gotten almost a full win out of Seth Brown this year, and there's no way that's a dude who gets kept around in a team with 4 minor league teams and a complex.

Kiley McDaniel

1:25

That just gets scooped up by a broader independent league system, which is what those minor league towns with no team would do

1:26

they would have teams like always, just not tied to MLB, they have to pay the players and would sell the good ones to MLB clubs

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