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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 9/4/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
Hello from ATL, Scout is resting alongside me as she's about to being nap #3 of the day.
We just posted some changes to THE BOARD on twitter that are reflected on the site
12:29
12:31
I'll probably be sneaking out to the Gwinnett/Columbus playoff game tomorrow, waiting to hear back but expecting Logan Allen v Kyle Wright with Pache, Waters, Riley, Alex Jackson vs. Zimmer, Daniel Johnson, Bobby Bradley. That would be good
12:32
the prospects landing page has prospect leaderboards, graduation tracker and all of our content: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/
Sung Min Kim has been at the U18 worlds, including 2020 draft dudes: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-dispatch-from-days-three-and-four-of-the...
12:33
Josh wrote up the Gavin Lux callup, with a scoopy nugget on his trackman stuff https://blogs.fangraphs.com/called-up-gavin-lux/
Eric wrote up Sept callups of the NL, with AL coming soon: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/analyzing-the-national-league-september-ca...
and the AFL rosters have their own seasonal pumpkin spice board https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-arizona-fall-league-rosters-announced...
to your questions:
TommyTwoBags
12:34
Talk me down off my Brailyn Marquez hype high. Touching 102 from the left side?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:35
He's pretty good! Still mostly fastball at this point, but encouraging that there's Ks/GBs/velo and he's performing well enough to be promoted/young for High-A
He's a first round type arm, but still in that 45+ waystation where we'll sort through the borderline top 100 guys in the offseason
12:36
Edward Cabrera with the Marlins just jumped into 50 FV status with similar arm speed and more performance. Ryan Weathers and Simeon Woods Richardson are probably the top 45+ arms with Marquez, so a little more offseason info could help them jump to 50 FV
but, as is, those three and Alek Manoah are like 120 to 140 overall
Luis Robert’s Agent
12:36
Kiley, what are the chances I file a grievance vs. the chances that my client is actually too fatigued for a major league cup of coffee?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:38
The "deserved a promotion" thing is akin to one of the hot button political topics where no one is ever changing their mind and a certain subset gets super heated when it directly affects them.

Until the rules change, at least 90% of the time, the player will be left down when he otherwise wouldn't be, if the rules were more merit based. So does it really matter?

The players aren't winning grievances and some of these guys sign extensions a year later, or right away to force a promotion. It's just what's happening and it won't change until at least the next CBA, maybe even the next one after that.
Josh Nelson
12:39
Any updates on the possible International Draft?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:39
Nothing concrete. Eric and I called around a lot right after that stuff broke and almost wrote something but shelved it for a bit. I think I set odds a chat or two ago, lemme go find those
12:41
2020: 10%
2021: 35%
2022: 90%
I'd still go with that
Cole Train
12:41
Do you find it odd that the media tends to fixate on where a player grew up as the most important factor in a free agent decision as opposed to things like you know money?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:41
I mean it's boring to write "he'll go wherever the money is" so I have some sympathy for beat writers but yeah that's the biggest factor over 90% of the time
12:42
or if you have an agent who is only out for himself, doesn't tell the player about offers he doesn't like and will only tell the player to agree when it also benefits the agent's narrative
those situations are pretty easy to predict, too
Cody
12:43
Rank these Double-A catcher prospects: William Contreras, Cal Raleigh, Mario Feliciano, Tyler Stephenson
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:43
a great use of THE BOARD!
12:45
1. Tyler Stephenson - 50 FV, 56th overall, 6th C in MILB
2. William Contreras - 50 FV, 84th overall, 10th C in MILB
3. Mario Feliciano - 45 FV, 14th-19th C tier
4. Cal Raleigh - 40+ FV, 20th-31st C tier
12:46
kinda amazed Stephenson isn't on every top 100, btw. go poke a hole in that profile. performs, tools, pedigree, well-rounded, durable, consistent, two easy plus tools in power and arm
Brian
12:48
Indians RHP Carlos Vargas had a nice stretch to end his season, does he have the tools to stick in a rotation?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:49
Big stuff, athletic, chance to start, but needs to make some command improvements, so we would lean to more RP now
would be much lesser chance if he was less athletic
Willie K.
12:49
You seem to be the high guys on Tyler Stephenson, giving him a 50FV. What sticks out to you on the positive side about him?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:50
Great day to ask this question. Eric and I didn't have a strong opinion either way when we did the top 100 shuffle a couple weeks ago then we just couldn't poke a hole in him and I think there's probably some prospect fatigue since he's been famous for 4 years and hasn't put up bonkers numbers
12:51
but catchers rarely give you three straight years of what you're expecting. Go look at the lists a couple years ago, there's reliever-level variance at that poisition
it's so much more cerebral (harder to scout) and there's so much wear and tear and concussions
VUHawkTalk
12:51
Does Vandy have a realistic shot at clearing any of Pete Crow Armstrong, Robert Hassell, Enrique Bradfield or Dax Fulton through the 2020 draft?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:52
I'd set the over/under at 0.5 and I think 0 is more likely. Right now, they would all go in the top 50 on talent, PCA and Hassell are probably both 5-10 overall, Fulton more 15-20, Bradfield 25-50. Don't know each signability yet but it's like a 75% chance or so that you'd get none of them if the draft was today
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