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Kiley McDaniel Trade Value Chat - 7/19/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:05
Let's hope we're right!
Purple Mays Haze
1:05
I assume that all MLB orgs have their own "projection" systems for their minor leaguers...how many do you suspect are 'proprietary' (built in-house) vs licensed/purchased/customized versions from the publicly available ones (Steamer, PECOTA, etc.)?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:07
So I've worked for some teams and they're all proprietary but most models, for drafts or just projections, have some element of a public aspect whether it's a public projection or public draft rankings or public MILB prospect rankings, it's just usually a very small element used for regression purposes. The teams have so much info that the public stuff isn't really that useful.
weezy
1:07
I am curious of how volatility/sensitivity the trade value rankings. Obviously this list looks a lot different than it did last year. How much change is expected before the end of the season, for instance?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:08
Certain guys that go off in the coming months will move a lot. I think Acuna probably jumped like 10 spots (from 17 to about 7) in mid-July to September last year, we just don't do updates of this list.
Yordan is a good example of a guy we expect to jump
AD
1:08
Given his contract, do you think Kingery makes next year's Top 50 if he can maintain 120 wRC+ as a superutility type?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:09
Sure, there's just a lot of BABIP and K's in there now, so I'd feel much better about it with a bigger sample
Jason N
1:09
Trade Value series is awesome!  If you did one just for the trade deadline, would you consider any relievers for the list?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:09
Not really. Felipe Vazquez and Josh Hader made the honorable mentions but weren't in the top 60.
ben
1:10
Is there justification for players and managers yelling at umpires on a regular basis? In what other line of work would this be considered acceptable?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:11
well traditional allows it to continue and it's entertaining. the logic for doing it is:
1. fire up/motivate a team that needs it
2. try to get benefit of the doubt for later calls
3. free therapeutic release
1:12
i wouldn't say that publicly screaming in someone's face is necessarily the best way to accomplish these goals but also it looks kinda fun and i want to do it
Conor
1:16
As a follow up, how likely do you think it is that we a consensus 70 FV pitching prospect in the next 5-10 years?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:16
with pitch design and nutrition and whatnot improving, I'll say over 50%
Hello
1:17
Where would Acuna been had he not signed his extension?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:17
Still #1
Spencer
1:17
What are you seeing when you describe a prospect as being a "twitchy athlete" and what are the positive and negative implications of this trait?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:18
athletic, smooth actions, explosive movements. only real negative is sometimes when they're younger and don't have body control yet they're a little out of control but scouts are always excited to buy in at that point, seeing the upside
Daniel
1:18
How did you get a Manny Machado level player for Tatis? Just back calculate his stats with a .340 BABIP?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:19
I mean you could do that but mostly just age/body/tools more than strictly diving into the performance
Tim
1:19
Swaggerty seems to be struggling. Why is he still ranked so high?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:20
1. he has really good tools
2. he's age-appropriate for an elite prospect in High-A
3. he's hitting better than league average and has been above average defensively in center field

other than that, you nailed it
Aaron
1:20
How does Eloy not make it and Vladito does?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:22
baseball people think Vlad is a generational bat like 7 or 8 hit tool and think Eloy is more of a 5 hit tool. the rest isn't amazingly different
Daniel
1:22
Do you put much stock into Tatis' low xwOBA? His xwOBA is only .333, which is significantly lower than a Machado type player.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:22
GUYS HE'S 20, HE WILL GET BETTER
1:23
Machado at age 20
97 wRC+ over 51 games
3ish WAR if annualized
1:24
like please do the smallest bit of research
this is less than 15 seconds
Cat Latos
1:24
MEOW
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:25
This is addressed on the podcast and let me tell you, reader, Cats of any type are decidedly not (clap emoji) for (clap emoji) me (clap emoji)
Colby
1:25
Gavin Lux has been out of his mind to start AAA and been pretty ridiculous since changing the swing.  Will he be the reason the Dodgers win the world series this year?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:25
okay this may be back to a little too excited about a young player but i like where you're headed
Mark
1:25
I keep reading headlines that the Dodgers need to trade top prospects for an elite reliever. Do people not understand that holding onto the prospects continues to make the Dodgers a better and better team, and is a core reason why this team is argued to be better than the previous ones?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:26
I mean it seems like the majority of fans would run a team like they were George Steinbrenner in the early 90s
but they also are generally not billionaires so this approach may have some pitfalls
Adam
1:26
Do you have any personal favorite young pitchers/hitters to watch? (Max age:18)
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