JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Trade Value Chat

Kiley McDaniel Trade Value Chat - 7/19/19

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Kiley McDaniel

1:26

this feels like a trap

Dallas

1:27

You touched on it but hopefully you can go even further here but where is Ohtani ranked if he gave up pitching and played RF everyday and got 650 plate appearances per year?

Kiley McDaniel

1:27

probably 30-40 range?

1:28

it's like a 4 WAR RF with 4.5 years of control. I think I'd take that guy over Hoskins? Right around Alonso?

Dallas

1:31

If Carlos Correa signed a Bogaerts extension this off-season (which would include arb years so not really apples-to-apples comp) would he rise up the list?

Kiley McDaniel

1:31

yep

Bro Thor

1:31

If a new franchise were to be approved in Vegas or Portland, how'd they go about acquiring enough talent to compete at the Major league level? What about filling minor league rosters?

Kiley McDaniel

1:31

EXPANSION DRAFT

sorry got a little excited because that may be the most Kiley/Eric thing that could ever exist

1:32

all 30 clubs have to protect a certain number of players of certain levels of experience/40 man/positions, etc.

expansion teams draft a year before they have teams, start with affiliates for a year, then the MLB team plays, probably aggressively grab released/indy ball guys/play bulk approach in J2/draft

a note to potential owners of expansion teams:

1:33

i will be your GM for 2 years for just free food/housing

Fang Raphs

1:33

Did you peep any of those anagrams posted in the Trade Value series' comments? There's some gold in there...

Kiley McDaniel

1:33

the most redeeming part of the comments section imo

The Kid

1:34

Great series. Ozzie was the only player that jumped out in the top 10. If you assume he is a 4-win player through the life of his contract, and hold $/war constant w/ no inflation, his NPV is still somewhere in the ballpark of $200mm in surplus value. That contract is such a bargain, it is hard to imagine there are 7 more valuable assets than that. Love the work though.

Kiley McDaniel

1:35

That's an example of a topic I touched on throughout the series where the asset value calculation doesn't take into account WAR over a really long period versus concentrated WAR in shorter periods. Also not everyone in baseball (I think they're being nitpickers) thinks Ozzie will be a 4 WAR player for the next 5+ years

Stephen

1:35

What's your take on these three yankees minor leaguers: prospects or no?: Luis Gil, RHP (A), Nick Nelson, RHP (AA) & Maikol Escotto (DSL) by the way DSL Yanks now leading DSL Angels 22-1

Kiley McDaniel

1:36

They are all in good spots in our ever-updating NYY prospect list on THE BOARD: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-...

1:36

Last year Ezequiel Duran was a popular sleeper pick to breakout as a prospect. Currently running a 163 wRC+ in Low A. Anything you've seen or heard that makes you think it's happening now?

Kiley McDaniel

1:37

Tweeted this just before the chat but he's going off as we thought he would last year. Last year was explained to us as swing tinkering, getting overaggressive to try to get his numbers back and a snowballing of tough breaks. Clean start this year, so back to where he was initially. It's not like he was injured or the tools changed. This happens with youngsters sometimes.

Adrian B

1:38

Any Team USA guys who have stood out to you beyond the big names?

Kiley McDaniel

1:39

Justin Foscue 2B at Mississippi State stood out. Love me some Burl Carraway power LHR at Dallas Baptist. I'd also like to take credit/blame for calling his plus curveball the BURL CURL.

Roberto

1:39

Do you have injury concerns for Cade Cavalli? Highly ranked but was shut down for a bit this spring and has hardly pitched at all for USA team.

Kiley McDaniel

1:40

He was also surprisingly good. 93-98, does it easy, plus breaker, pretty athletic. He will take off up the list if he stays healthy and produces because it's what scouts want it to look like.

Daniella Correa

1:40

Correa's drop seems heavy given his performance and the injuries largely being "flukes" and unlikely to impact his future value.

Kiley McDaniel

1:41

Well every guy, all else equal, will drop like 25-30 spots going from 3.5 years to 2.5 years of control

Baez is 34th with 2.5 years and I can all but guarantee he won't make next year's list

(prove me wrong, Javy)

Westeros

1:43

I hear about Track-man all the time. But what I don't understand is the equipment so cumbersome that it needs to be installed by professionals/ or is scouting industry have scouts who show up before game time and set up the cameras? Thanks

Kiley McDaniel

1:44

It's like a 3 foot by 3 foot thing that looks like a solar power deal you put on your roof. You can easily spot them in the stadium because of the size/specific look and it's always up high behind home plate, around the press box.

they're stationary and get installed once

David

1:45

"my dudes" works, everyone knows girls can be dudes

Kiley McDaniel

1:45

hmm i'm gonna need a ruling on this

Can women be dudes

obvi, bruh (69.3% | 61 votes)

nah, brah (30.7% | 27 votes)

Total Votes: 88

Sam

1:46

You should do an article about players trade value and how you would rank them. Would be pretty cool imo.

Kiley McDaniel

1:46

I might do this!

Off the Handle

1:46

How does one pronounce Luis Robert? I haven't heard "Robert" pronounced as a native Spanish word ever before and have never heard anyone say his name who definitely knew the right way.

Kiley McDaniel

1:46

We call him LouBob but I believe it's roe-BEAR

Savages

1:48

Can you go in depth on how Severino fell off the list? Seems like he has ace potential and a good bit of control

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