JotCast | Klawchat 1/28/21

Klawchat 1/28/21

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Keith Law

1:03

But the names you drop are secondhand. Klawchat.

addoeh

1:03

If Heston Kjerstad had a couple rock umlauts in his name, like Motörhead or Spın̈al Tap, would he rank higher?

Keith Law

1:03

I feel like I burned my best Kjerstad joke in the draft writeup last June.

Jackie

1:04

As someone who watched Scott Rolen every day for six seasons in St. Louis, I say this: he was not a Hall of Famer. You can very easily tell the story of Major League Baseball in the 2000s without mentioning his name.If you have to explain to me why he deserves enshrinement, then he doesn't.

Keith Law

1:04

I checked the rules for the Hall of Fame voting process. It turns out we do not have to explain to you why a player deserves enshrinement for him to be voted in.

Pierce

1:06

When the voting results were announced the other night, I said to myself, "Well, if Curt Schilling can keep his mouth/twitter account shut for one year, then he's in." He only missed by 364 days, 23 hours, and 40 minutes. I have to admit, a perverse part of me is saddened to miss out on his induction speech -- it probably wouldn't have been boring.

Keith Law

1:06

I don't think we need to give any more platforms to white nationalists or insurrectionists right now.

Alex

1:06

I'm probably not the only crazy Braves fan on the internet with a Drew Waters question — nevertheless, what would he have to show you with his hit tool in order to merit a top-100 ranking? *If* he started to show you, how much time would it take for you to be convinced that he was for real?

Keith Law

1:07

He wasn't on the top 100 last year and it's not like we have new data or information to say he's a different player now than he was in 2019.

Frank

1:07

Thank you for the rankings. Always a must read. With so much of the MLB season up in the air, what is the outlook for minor league baseball in 2021? For development of talent alone they cant repeat what they did last year. What should we expect to see for the minor leagues? Oh and thanks as always for still hating my team!!!

Keith Law

1:07

I have said a few times that MLB may have to subsidize some minor-league operations this year to allow teams to play without fans or with limited attendance just so the prospects have a place to play.

Alex

1:07

It seems highly likely that some teams handled the development of talent much better than others during the pandemic especially for players who were not at the alternate site last year. Do you think we will see that play out over the next 12-18 months and do you have any insight into which teams did more than others for their younger players?

Keith Law

1:08

We will probably see some of that this year, but i have no idea who actually handled the layoff better - it's all just talk for now.

Jackie

1:08

Still waiting for Roger Clemens to fail one drug test, ever ... but at least Bud Selig, the guy in charge during the "Steroid Era" got inducted into the Hall of Fame a few years ago. Gotta draw the line somewhere.

Keith Law

1:09

Selig and Kuhn are embarrassing selections for the Hall, as are Bill Conlin and Bill Madden (who won the Fink Award), but they were all voted in by groups other than the BBWAA. It's not quite equivalent. The real hypocrisy will be when writers who refused to vote for Bonds (zero failed tests) or Clemens (also zero failed tests) do vote for David Ortiz (one positive PED test in 2003).

Brian

1:09

Keith, thanks for the Top 100. What does Leody Taveras being the only Ranger in your top 100 say about their system? Have they just missed on too many of their recent draft picks and trade targets?

Keith Law

1:12

Jung was just outside the 100 - I'll do a just missed column next week - but their biggest problem has been a horrendous run of pitching injuries. Whatever they were doing, and I sort of have an idea, it not only didn't work, but it probably contributed to the blowouts of at least four of their pitching prospects.

Matt_

1:13

I have a question not related to the Top 100 prospects. For the last few years I have noticed my interest in baseball draining away. I'm a diehard Cubs fan, and even when the team was awful in 2012-2014 I read fangraphs every day, listened to baseball podcasts all the time including EW and your short-lived ESPN show. Now I just don't really engage with baseball content much. I'd blame the general malaise surrounding the Cubs franchise the last few years, the utterly odious Ricketts family running the team, and what seems like a larger phenomenon that teams don't really care about winning all that much in a way that makes analysis of transactions almost seem beside-the-point. As you can imagine this offseason has been extremely demoralizing. My reaction to the Ricketts fam selling off the team for parts has been less anger than apathy. What do you recommend I do to reignite my interest in baseball? Who should I be following that could help spark joy in following the sport?

Keith Law

1:14

That's a tough question to answer without knowing more about what you personally enjoy(ed) about baseball, but I at least get the most joy from watching the best and most entertaining players doing their thing - players who aren't just talented, but play with enthusiasm, style, panache.

Chris

1:14

I saw this question on Reddit a few weeks ago, but with your prospect rankings dropping today, now feels like the time to ask: If every pro baseball player were suddenly entered into a draft today (but their contracts moving forward would stay the same), what round would Franco get drafted? What if contracts didn't matter?

Keith Law

1:15

Franco would probably go in the first round because you know you're getting all of his prime years (assuming that the six years of team control still existed).

Bob Wagner

1:15

Is there a basic reason why MLB has much more labor strife than other professional sports?

Keith Law

1:15

MLB's union is much stronger, and has done a better job representing the interests of its members, than the unions in the NFL or NHL have.

MannyKay

1:15

Did Ryan Mountcastle graduate from prospect status or do you not like his profile much?

Keith Law

1:16

Still eligible. LF only with no real history of patience or plate discipline before 2020.

Bill G

1:17

Keith - No questions, just a comment. Excellent job as always. It is also obvious that the listing is abnormal, in that there appears to be a higher percentage of players on the list with MLB experience. That does contribute to some prospects being left off the top 100. I would assume your just missed list could be a bit longer! Thanks again for all the work you put in to create this list.

Keith Law

1:18

I have to talk to my editor about it but I had ~14 players on the just missed list right now.

Jake

1:18

Spencer Howard dropped quite a bit from last year. Your report focuses on location issues, but doesn’t mention in game velocity loss noted in other places. Do you feel that was mostly just health related? We’re there any signs of that being an issue previously in the minors?

Keith Law

1:19

The velocity stuff was a symptom of the shoulder issue that eventually shelved him. I saw him twice at the end of 2019 and he didn't lose velocity in either of those starts.

Guest

1:19

Hi Keith, is there any reason Nick Gonzales was not ranked in your top 100 when players you ranked lower in the 2020 Draft top 50 (Hassell, Kjerstad, Detmers, Crow-Armstrong) were included?

Keith Law

1:20

Because they're not the same list. I don't just take the draft rankings and plug them into the pro list. I start the top 100 from scratch every year. And in this case there will be more variation from the draft ranking to the pro ones than there would be in other years, since I only saw a half-dozen draft guys before the world ended, and the industry didn't get a lot of looks at these players either.

John Olerud

1:20

Thanks again for the chat. And congratulations to you and your family! I don't think I'm alone when I say that the world of international signings is still somewhat confusing to me (not to mention cringe-worthy and concerning in many regards). But can you quickly remind us why some teams seem to always sign the elite prospects? And why others never seem to? Specifically, as an Ms fan (sigh) should I be "mad" that they never seem to contribute any of their budget towards signing the elite prospects (especially in recent years when they are trying to rebuild and have less budget going towards their MLB roster)?

Keith Law

1:21

That's a philosophy - the new hard cap on international bonuses means all teams have essentially the same opportunity to sign the elite players, and some teams will want to spend all of it on one guy each year (e.g., Jasson Dominguez) while other teams say those players are so high-risk that it's better to spread it around.

Also, thank you!

Tim

1:21

New to espresso making and got a good quality breville. I've found that even while using the same grind/volume settings merely a different type of coffee will drastically change the pressure settings. Do you know why? And where can I get some damn good beans?

Keith Law

1:23

Different beans will indeed require different grind settings and even slightly different amounts to get a perfect shot. It's an iterative process each time I get a new bag. For beans for espresso, I love Re-Animator's Foundation and Archetype's Espresso.

Ben

1:23

No Adell? I realize his ML.debut didn't go as planned, but really? Have his tools and ceiling just vanished since this time last year?

Keith Law

1:24

Not eligible. I explain the eligibility rules in the intro.

Bobby Higginson

1:24

One word to describe the depth of the Tigers farm system.

Keith Law

1:24

Top-heavy.