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Klawchat 10/20/22
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Keith Law
1:03
You're calling all the shots. Klawchat.
James
1:03
Dave Roberts did nothing to warrant losing his job, right ?
Keith Law
1:04
Right. Really don't understand the hand-wringing over the Dodgers losing a short series to a very good team.
This is the playoffs. We have upsets. It's not about crowning the best team, but about crowning a champion. You have to accept that distinction or stop watching.
Jimmy
1:04
Team farthest away from being a playoff team?
Keith Law
1:04
The Rockies, for me.
Jimmy
1:04
Julio Wander or Witt next 10 years?
Keith Law
1:05
A healthy Wander. But I would bet all 3 make many All-Star teams.
Heather
1:05
What will you miss the most about the Liz Truss Era?
Keith Law
1:05
The lettuce.
Turner
1:05
Do you plan to read Cormac McCarthy's new novels when they come out this fall?
Keith Law
1:05
I wasn't aware he had any new novels coming, if that says anything.
Turner
1:05
The Orioles have a lot of hitters and few pitchers in their system. Is turning some of those hitters into an established frontlineish type starting pitcher something that can actually be pulled off or does it just sound reasonable in theory.
Keith Law
1:06
I think they have to do this, and it's feasible. They have surplus at a couple of spots, including shortstop and the outfield. They're not going to be able to get at bats for all of them if these guys all continue on their current trajectories, so converting a package of 3-4 of their hitting prospects into an above-average starting pitcher would be ideal.
RD
1:07
Kirby or Gilbert long term?
Keith Law
1:07
Kirby, given equal health.
Ken from Entertainment 720
1:08
Question on BABIP.  How do I know when it is skill or luck.  If a player is hitting .325 and has a certain BABIP how do I know if that .325 is based on skill versus luck on an elevated BABIP.  If his BABIP is sitting at .425 okay I get it it is luck (or the next Ted Williams) but if his BABIP is say .340 what factors do I use to determine luck versus skill here.
Keith Law
1:11
For starters, it depends on the hitter's history of BABIPs - if he's got a .340 BABIP this year, is that higher than his career norm? Much higher? OK, is he hitting the ball consistently harder? Or have some groundballs become line drives? Has his swing changed? Andres Gimenez went from under .300 in his first two stints in the majors to .353 this year. He changed his swing and started making much harder contact. That increase is some skill and some randomness. In his case I think it's more of the former, based on what we see and what the data say.
barbeach
1:13
Hello KLaw!  Thanks for the chat.  What are your thoughts on what you've seen in the MLB so far from the Yankees' Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera (SSS alert, I know!)?  Thanks much.
Keith Law
1:13
Peraza barely played. Cabrera showed similar skills to what we saw in the minors; he's a low-OBP guy with power.  Probably not a regular for the Yankees.
xxx(yyy)
1:13
big picture - was Kumar Rocker the right or wrong choice for the Rangers at #3? not asking if they should have taken another specific player, just if you think the process they went through to end up with Rocker was sound in your opinion
Keith Law
1:14
It truly depends on what's going on with his arm, and I just don't know the answer to that. If his arm turns out to be fine, it'll be a solid pick. If not, meaning Texas evaluated the issue incorrectly or ignored/undervalued it in choosing him, then that was the wrong choice with Collier, Termarr, Green, etc. all still on the board.
addoeh
1:14
Being compared to Daniel Vogelbach only sounds bad if you think you have Anthony Rizzo 2.0.
Keith Law
1:16
Agreed. It was also very strange to get that kind of reaction about a prospect in a system that's loaded with guys who are top 100 prospects or banging on the door - PCA, Triantos, Alcantara, Made, etc. It's not like it's Mervis or nothing over there.
Alex
1:16
With some luck, I can see the Pirates' position players forming the core of a contender but it seems like their best young pitchers have #2/#3 ceilings. Do you think the Pirates can build a playoff-worthy rotation out of their system if their window opens in the next few years?
Keith Law
1:17
That's probably right on the upper minors pitching. We'll see how guys like Chandler and Solometo come along in the next year or two. This was their first full pro season, and both looked very good in limited time.
AM
1:17
I wasn't a big fan of the Bucs picking Nick Gonzales and I worry that Termarr Johnson is similar- no clear defensive home and some questions about the projectability of the offensive tools given they're a bit undersized. Am I overreacting?
Keith Law
1:19
Very different players. Gonzales was a college guy, so less risk for that reason and less upside. He also played at altitude, 4000 feet above sea level, which really skewed his performance and data. Termarr was a high school draft, so more risk there, but a better athlete with a better present hit tool on draft day. I'd be very surprised if Termarr didn't become a better defensive 2b than Gonzales is.
Jibraun
1:19
Do you have an ETA on when Masyn Blaze Winn could be called up to the majors? Is mid-2023 too optimistic?
Keith Law
1:19
I think that's too optimistic. You asked about Herrera taking over as catcher - I would like to think that's their plan, and then Walker comes up later, and then Winn after that or even in 2024. He's very talented but nowhere near as far along in his development as Walker.
Yankees Homer
1:19
Hey Klaw, what do the Yankees do about the left of their infield next year? IKF and the Racist are clearly not the answer. Is Volpe ready next year? How about 3B? Thanks!
Keith Law
1:20
I'm a Volpe guy. I'd try to get him 120 games or more in the majors next year. Even if he struggles at the start I believe he has the aptitude and athleticism to make adjustments.
Scott
1:20
It came up in your last chat that you haven't seen Miguel Bleis yet.  I had noticed he wasn't mentioned in your preseason prospect summary on the Red Sox.  Is that because he's so far away?  The consensus seemed to be that he was the best FCL prospect this year.  I'm curious if you've heard enough from your sources that he might be in consideration in your next top 100.
Keith Law
1:20
He was only in the DSL in 2021 and didn't stand out in performance or to scouts I know who saw that league. Different now that he's played in the US against better competition and in front of more people.
Sage
1:21
You spent any time with Steve Stone?
Keith Law
1:21
Not really. Met him once over a decade ago. He was very friendly.
Jeff
1:21
I wonder if the Dodgers "failures" in the postseason are more due to approach and strategy towards a short series more so than anything else.  They seem to have a bullpen game in virtually every series including the most recent game 3 which was after not playing in round 1 and a day off between games 2 and 3.  I know the postseason is a small sample size so its not entirely indicative of who is the best team but when you have so much talent and you lose more than you win, something has to be the cause other than the randomness of the outcome of a baseball game/series.
Keith Law
1:22
How could we truly distinguish that from the randomness of a short series? I don't know if we could. I also kept thinking the series might have been different with a healthy Buehler, although that's all hypothetical (and then don't you have to ask the same about Padres/Tatis?).
Alex
1:22
The Giants have been fairly clear they expect Kyle Harrison to be part of their rotation next year.  Maybe not at the start of the season but sometime during the season.  Is this a realistic expectation and what do you see as his ceiling/floor?  Thanks for all the great content and taking my question.
Keith Law
1:22
During the season seems very realistic to me.
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