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Klawchat 2/3/23
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Keith Law
1:02
Let's do some living, after we die. Klawchat.
Zac
1:02
Have you ever seen a rebuild go as poorly as the Tigers have?
Keith Law
1:04
We've seen some teams in the wilderness for more than a decade, certainly. It's not unprecedented, and despite the farm system's ranking, I don't think this is some scorched-earth situation like the Angels a few years ago. This system isn't devoid of talent, it's just shallow, and most of their higher-upside guys have lower probabilities than their peers in other systems. I like the direction player dev has taken in the last year, and maybe a new approach in the draft will help too.
Braydon
1:04
Which organization is least likely to win a World Series in the next 10 years?
Keith Law
1:04
Tough call. Colorado, probably, as much because of ownership as anything else. Monfort appears to be watching another sport ... on another planet.
Guest
1:04
Think Jordan Walker with break camp with the Cardinals?
Danny
1:05
I was surprised to see Ryne Nelson leading the way for rookie eligible pitchers that impressed in limited time last year. Why does he rank higher than Wesneski, Dray Jameson, and Waldicuk?
Keith Law
1:05
I don't. They have Burleson and O'Neill for right field, and I imagine they'll want to sort through that before putting Walker in the big leagues.
1:06
Nelson's the best athlete with the highest upside of the group. Waldichuk might be the best bet for 2023 value, though, as he's got the strongest hold on a job and will make half his starts in a graveyard.
Matt
1:06
I remember during Torkelson’s rookie year (or before) you said you wished you went with what you saw vs what you were hearing and ranked him lower on your prospect list. What was it that you saw that made you second guess what you were hearing?
Keith Law
1:08
I didn't love the bat speed or the athlete. Saw power and a good eye, certainly, and he produced so well, even into the low minors, that I just figured I was wrong. The pandemic draft was by far the worst for me to cover, and I already think I've revised more opinions from that year than any other, because I saw so few guys that spring (I saw Tork and Martin as underclassmen; that spring I saw Lacy, Mitchell, Hancock, Wilcox, and Veen, and that might be it before the world ended).
Aaron C.
1:08
What was your favorite restaurant meal eaten last year?
Keith Law
1:10
Tough call. Pizzeria Sei in LA, maybe. Le Cavalier here in Wilmington.
Doug
1:11
Would you rather have an elite draft pick (let’s say Top 3) this year, or would you rather have the Mariners’ collection of picks between 20 and 30 (I think 22, 29, 30)?
Keith Law
1:11
Depends a little on the year, but I think I'd rather have 1-1. If we're talking about #3, then I'd rather have the three later picks for the bonus pool value.
Paul
1:11
How long will it take for the Atlanta farm system to get closer to the middle of the pack?
Keith Law
1:12
Could be five years or more, because I expect Anthopoulos to keep trading prospects to maintain the major-league roster.
BravesFan72
1:12
Of all of the extended Braves players, who in your opinion has the biggest chance of being a disappointment?
Keith Law
1:12
If we set aside pitching injury risk, Harris's approach at the plate worries me.
Sean Casey (not the player)
1:12
More of a comment… I really enjoy the newsletters and the reflections on your own life.  Baseball stuff is good too.
Keith Law
1:13
Thank you. I get such a good response when I write about personal stuff like I have been that I'm leaning more into that.
Mike
1:13
What would you do to solve the massive payroll disparity between the big and small market teams. It's beyond rediculous at this point and is killing baseball in multiple cities.
Keith Law
1:13
Is it? Or are penurious owners refusing to spend their revenue sharing takings the real problem?
J
1:14
If you're the O's do you run Henderson out at 3rd and Mateo at SS while you develop Westburg and Ortiz further? Or Henderson at SS, Urias (?) at 3rd and Mateo all over?
Keith Law
1:15
I'm a little biased on this because I think Henderson's glove at third will be a 70 or better, but I know that not everyone sees it exactly that way. But I'd move him there, and Mateo keeps the seat warm at short until they can give Ortiz a go.
Carter
1:15
If Grissom can’t stick at SS defensively in a regular capacity, would he fit as a left fielder for Atlanta, or would he end up a trade piece?
Keith Law
1:15
Not sure the bat plays as a left fielder.
Jibraun
1:15
I recently read Alan C. Logan's The Greatest Hoax on Earth, which thoroughly debunks most of Frank Abagnale Jr.'s claims in Catch Me If You Can. (Other journalists have also debunked Abagnale's claims as well.) Basically, Abagnale made up 90% of the stuff he claimed he did. This changed my opinion of Abagnale's book. I was wondering how it would affect your opinion of the book as I recall it being one of your favorite non-fiction books.
Keith Law
1:16
I haven't read that book but I've read other debunkings and now it's pretty clear Abagnale's a phony. It's a shame, as I did enjoy his book a ton. The movie sucked anyway.
Andrew
1:16
Thanks for doing these! The Nationals have struggled to have a good farm system and to produce any meaningful talent outside of Soto in years. Is that due to bad scouting, bad developmental coaching, bad investment (in resources) or bad luck?
Keith Law
1:16
Biggest reason was that they traded and graduated a lot of guys to build the WS winner, and then didn't backfill well due to weaker drafts and very little from IFAs after Soto. I think they're on the right track again, and now they're not trading prospects, but stockpiling them.
Jose
1:17
Beyond the cheapness of ownership, do you think there is a root cause of the A's inability to draft/sign and develop quality talent at the minor league level? Is it scouting? Development? Any cures?
Keith Law
1:19
I think if you go over their drafts, you see a lot of misses on high picks. Since Matt Chapman in 2014, these are their first-round/supplemental picks: Richie Martin, Daulton Jeffries, AJ Puk, Kevin Merrell, Austin Beck, the quarterback, Logan Davidson, Tyler Soderstrom, Max Muncy, Daniel Susac. One of those guys is a top 100 prospect and none are anything more than replacement-level big leaguers. They're also usually late in the international free-agent cycles and end up with guys like Puason, Lazarito, and Pineda, all seven-figure guys who are non-prospects.
Dr. Bob
1:19
Hey Keith. When you say that STL's system is atypically top-heavy, what does that say about their organizational depth?
Keith Law
1:19
Meaning their depth is lacking compared to their depth in previous years.
Steven
1:20
If you were the Orioles, would you look to trade Jorge Mateo to a team that missed on the FA shortstops and replace him with Joey Ortiz?
Keith Law
1:20
If there's a market, sure, but I don't think teams are banging down the door for a guy with a .267 OBP last year.
Jibraun
1:20
Do you believe Liberatore has the command/control to go to a heavier changeup/curveball mix? He didn't seem to show much control, much less command, in his limited time in the majors last year.
Keith Law
1:21
I think the control problem was a function of trying to go away from contact, not pure wildness. So, yes, he does, but the Cardinals need to try a two-seamer or a cutter or something instead.
addoeh
1:21
So you've become an Eagles fan through your wife.  Are you also a Sixers or Flyers fan now?
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