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Klawchat 2/3/23
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Keith Law
1:22
No, she's not anywhere near as much of a fan of those teams or sports. We're busy now though with the Eagles and the Six Nations (Cymru am byth!).
Nolan
1:22
Hey Keith! Longtime follower of your work (you were the reason I finally sprung for the Athletic). I have a question I've been meaning to ask for a while: Did you (fairly?) recently come into following the NFL? I seem to remember you not following the league at all, and being vocal about it. Am I confusing you for someone else??
Keith Law
1:22
See above. I grew up watching football, lost interest in my 20s, only got back into it when my wife and I started dating four years ago.
Babo
1:23
Do you scout and write all your prospect ranks yourself, or is there a team that assists you? Any insight on that process?
Keith Law
1:23
I write everything myself. I see as many players as I can, talk to scouts/execs, watch video, etc. The words are all mine, though - it's the equivalent of writing a full book every winter.
Hank the Tank
1:23
If Max Fried goes on to have Cy Young caliber seasons in 2023 and 2024, what kind of contract would you expect him to land in free agency?
Keith Law
1:23
$30 million a year or more, probably 6/$200MM or so. Maybe more.
Johnny Mo
1:23
Outside of his frame, are there big concerns that Tink Hence won't hold up well with extended outings/a longer season, or is the trepidation moreso that he just hasn't done it before?
Keith Law
1:24
He hasn't done it and the limited workload in 2021 was due to shoulder soreness. No major injuries, though.
Jason
1:24
Hey keith. brewers fan here. What are we doing from your view? Going to arb with burnes over 700k? Starting rookies at multiple positions? has ownership just given up and gone cheap?
Keith Law
1:24
Starting rookies is fine. Fighting your best starter over $700K is bizarre.
Troy
1:24
Robert Gasser anything more than backend starter on bad team?
Keith Law
1:24
Probably not, but I like him.
Brian
1:25
What's the release schedule for the upcoming articles? With so many recent prospects graduating, I hope for a list of top X under 25 type addition this year.
Keith Law
1:25
Team reports & top 20s run one division per day starting on Monday, Feb 6th. Anything beyond that will wait till some other time - I head out for my first draft scouting trip on the 17th.
Buck
1:25
Turang anywhere near Top 125? Enough bat to be a good regular on high end?
Keith Law
1:26
Maybe top 150. Not much ceiling but could be a regular.
Tim O'Donovan
1:26
What's the ceiling and floor of Jett Williams?
Keith Law
1:26
Could be a star if he stays at SS and hits with some power. Floor is he never sees the majors.
Tony
1:26
Is there something about Painter's pitching style/delivery that gives him more injury risk than the two pitchers ahead of him? Based on the capsule, it sounded like the risk of injury was the only thing keeping him out of the Top 6, but to me, it seems like the two pitchers ahead of him, who are the same age and one of whom has actually had injury issues already, would share that same risk.
Keith Law
1:27
I think you're misinterpreting what I wrote.
Aaron C.
1:27
Have you ever shared or written your origin story on how got so into board games?
Keith Law
1:27
No, that's a good idea, although I worry the story's not that interesting in the end. Maybe the next newsletter.
addoeh
1:27
Anything you can share about Pedro Pineda from the A's?  Pos and Schur want to know.
Keith Law
1:28
I think he's an NP.
non-prospect, that is.
Brian
1:28
What are your thoughts on Spencer Strider?  The industry is enamored with the elite strikeout rate and seems to put him in the class with the other elite SP. I see a big innings jump, max effort delivery and over reliance on two pitches and worry for his ability to repeat 2022.
Keith Law
1:28
I don't think he's max effort, and the innings jump doesn't concern me in and of itself. The fastball is elite, and I think he's one of the few exceptions in that he can be a two-pitch starter.
Patrick Gordon
1:29
Hi Keith - I was reading about Drew Rom - He seems like a pretty high end prospect - what do you think of him?
Keith Law
1:29
He's a low-end prospect, but on Baltimore's top 20.
Full writeup on Tuesday in the Orioles' org report.
Alex in Austin
1:29
Heliot Ramos has been really disappointing.  Are there weaknesses that can be addressed through coaching or is he close to a write-off?
Keith Law
1:30
Not close to a write-off at all - way too quick for that given his age and tools - but the year was somewhat inexplicable.
Nick P
1:30
I know the Mets are still middle of the pack, but it’s hard to not love what the organization is doing.
Keith Law
1:31
It's the right strategy, no? You're trying to win now. You keep a few high-ceiling prospects, or players who can help the big league very soon, and everyone else is available. Hell, everyone is available if the right player becomes available. If the Angels suddenly said they'd take offers on Trout, you offer anyone.
Jeff
1:31
What do you make of Kumar Rocker at this point?
Keith Law
1:31
Big injury/reliever risk. Shows starter stuff and size.
Mike
1:31
Hey Keith - i’m very concerned about Elijah Green. If guys like Kelenic/Adell/Brinson all flame out once they get to the bigs (and they have better hit tools to begin with - granted maybe they still bounceback) what chance does elijah green have?
Keith Law
1:32
Kelenic is a little different from the others - he hit all the way up to AAA, and he was never as raw a hitter as Adell/Brinson. Adell is the big cautionary tale here. The Angels pushed him way too quickly and it may have effectively ended his career.
Mike
1:32
Who makes the bigs first - Tanner Bibbee or Gavin Williams?
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