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Klawchat 3/7/24
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Tyler
1:13
Hi Keith, 2 unrelated questions for you: 1) Would you say this is a good year to the number 2 pick? Asking as a Reds fan. And, 2) Do you believe that developing plate discipline is something that can be done? Just curious because I've seen conflicting opinions on this but limited data.
Keith Law
1:14
It's not a good year to pick high. I think some players can develop plate discipline, like we've seen with Austin Riley or Adolis Garcia, but for the majority of players it's a lot of wishful thinking.
1:15
You always have to try if you're in player development. It's just much easier said than done. Oh, stop swinging at sliders out of the zone? Well, sure, everyone is supposed to know that, but few can execute.
JG
1:15
All else being equal, if it comes down to extending either Bregman or Tucker, the easy answer is Tucker, isn't it?
Keith Law
1:15
Yes, because of age.
Cooperberg
1:15
Can spring training breakouts - like what James Wood has done so far - mean anything or is it all wait and see until the real games start?
Keith Law
1:16
Absolutely nothing. Pitchers are working on stuff. Managers aren't trying to win. You might face a big leaguer in the first at bat and an A-ball guy in the third at bat.
Eric
1:17
Why is the name Jackson such a precursor to being a top prospect nowadays?
Keith Law
1:17
Because it was a very popular boy's name in the mid-2000s.
Thomas
1:17
Who do you have more confidence in moving forward - Matt Manning or Casey Mize?
Keith Law
1:17
Mize.
Jerry
1:17
Hey huge fan been following since ESPN. Now subscribe with the athletic because of you. But getting to prospects. First question is Vanderbilt baseball any good this year? Don’t see anyone on your top 30 which is weird for them or they just underclass guys and will be on board next year?
Keith Law
1:18
They might be a good college team, but they do not have much in the way of 2024 draft prospects. Vastine might be a third rounder, Holton the same if he's healthy, although he's off to a rough start.
RAWagman
1:18
Hey Keith. Thank for the chats, as always. Which teams' offseason maneuvering was most befuddling to you? I'm a Blue Jays fan, and theirs was equal parts disappointing and head-scratching, but which teams, if any, were even more so?
Keith Law
1:19
I didn't get the Reds adding Jeimer Candelario rather than starting pitching depth. I'm also not sure what the Angels' direction is - it feels like they're no better off than they were last year.
Andy
1:19
At what age do you (as a scout) start hearing about high schoolers? Obviously, if it's a Bryce Harper type, you hear about it earlier, but do you hear much about the top sophomores (2026 draft available) now? College players we can see as first years and follow them and see their adjustments, does the same thing happen with high schoolers in the scouting world?
Keith Law
1:20
I usually don't hear much about HS players until they're juniors.
Heather
1:20
The Red Sox spent decades as a big market team.  Now that they've decided to be Tampa North instead, ownership is trying to sell the fans on, "Just wait until Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, and Kyle Teel are on the team in 2026 ... then we'll spend!"  Are they really that good?   We're just going to ignore for the moment that none of them is a pitcher.
Keith Law
1:21
I think those three are all very good to elite prospects. I think your notes about their lack of pitching in the system and ownership's sudden decision to treat the team like a cash cow are both well-considered.
Colton
1:21
I found your newsletter on trans stuff in Texas to be lacking. You say that gender ideology is harmless, despite the fact that the elimination of female-only spaces creates a danger to females in prison, for instance. Children are being sterilized (pause for a moment and think of the implications of the phrase "puberty blocker"). The very concept of a "gender identity" is an extreme belief in and of itself.
Keith Law
1:23
So I deleted the last half of this message because it descended into further anti-trans bullshit. You don't even understand the difference between sterilization, a permanent procedure with a long history in this country of use against people suspected of mental illness and racial minorities, and puberty blockers, safe and temporary medical treatment that comes under the care of a doctor. You also are at least 70 years behind on gender identity, and that's just in the west, as gender identity has history going back thousands of years in non-white European cultures. You're barely even masking your hatred of trans people behind inaccurate rhetoric.
CVD
1:23
With the changes to service time- should James Wood make the opening day roster to increase chances of ROY liklihood?  Or is he not ready so keep him down for another year of control?
Keith Law
1:23
oh HELL no. He was in double A for less than half of 2023 and struggled with contact there.
Gordon
1:23
Hi Keith! If you could cover any other sport what would it be and why?
Keith Law
1:24
No.
Jakey
1:24
Why so few HS prospects? Is it the Covid effect or something else?
Keith Law
1:24
Just a down year. It's just random.
Jackie
1:24
Who's winning the ROY awards?
Keith Law
1:24
I'll do predictions the last week of ST. Depends a lot on who makes OD rosters.
SJ
1:24
It looks like Quinn Priester's velocity is up a few MPH this spring. What's your outlook on him at this point?
Keith Law
1:25
I don't buy those spikes until the pitchers are working a little deeper into games. Higher velo in 1-2 innings may translate into higher velo in 5-7, but it might be a guy airing it out to win a roster spot.
Aaron G
1:25
Jackson Holliday - June/July callup? Or full season at AAA?
Keith Law
1:25
If they have a spot, he'll be up in June or July. I could also see them having no room for him.
1:26
Well, I guess that's not quite right - he's going to be better than almost anyone he replaces except Gunnar. But they may not dislodge an incumbent unless Holliday is laying waste to AAA pitching.
Tracy
1:26
Here in Chicago we have an owner who's got his hand out (again!) looking for taxpayer dollars to fund a new stadium, even though he already has one. Jerry Reinsdorf has single-handedly ruined the White Sox franchise, refusing to spend enough money to elevate the organization so it can be consistently competitive in the 21st century. Fans here are mostly outraged by his brazenness. This is also happening elsewhere. Owners are once again asking for money that solely benefits them. Do you think there is a growing national outrage from fans and taxpayers, saying they will no longer support publicly-financed stadiums?
Keith Law
1:26
I don't think so, because these proposals keep passing and legislators who support them keep their jobs. It's not even party-specific. The entire Tennessee legislature should be dissolved for the money they keep handing sports teams (and MLB will come with its hand out soon enough).
Steve
1:27
I see your first question was from Bob Pollard. He'll probably have 20 more ready by the time this chat is done.
Keith Law
1:27
I understood that reference.
Jakey
1:27
James Outman has become a good player on a top team. I know "don't scout the stat line" but in HS he barely hit .300 and in college he was at .249. How does a scout see a player like that and know they have a chance to be a big league regular?
Keith Law
1:27
Big bet on athleticism + that focusing just on baseball would help him. Great move for a later pick.
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