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Klawchat 3/7/24
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Kyle
1:27
Hi Keith - Thanks for the update this AM.. Twins are interesting with picks at 21 and 33. With the lack of prep talent, could you see them buying 2 college arms with those picks (Santucci, Yesavage, Brecht, etc) and then spreading $ on prep later?
Keith Law
1:28
Why not?
Eric
1:28
Re: Dan Jones - no, not da vinci. That's Dan Brown. Dan Jones is a legit historian
Keith Law
1:28
You're right, brain cramp here. Obviously I have never heard of Dan Jones, although that may be my failure.
Jakey
1:29
How long do you think the Morel at 3b experiment lasts?
Keith Law
1:29
He's really not good there. I imagine less than half a season.
Mike
1:29
I just dont see how brody brect can be so high when he walks so many.
Keith Law
1:34
It's primarily a bet that he's so athletic and so inexperienced (having played football as well) that he'll continue to improve his control and command with more reps and pro coaching. His delivery is fine - it's certainly not why he walked so many guys last year - but he throws so hard and his arm is so fast that he hasn't really learned to manage it. If he walks nearly 20% of batters again this year, he'll drop to the end of the first round or out of it. He has walked fewer guys the last two outings, and I think being a full-time baseball player is going to yield some short-term improvement.
Zirinsky
1:34
Hi Keith. Obviously pitching metrics/labs are much more advanced than hitting metrics at this stage (at least in terms of allowing players to "improve"). Is this simply due to how different pitching/hitting are OR is there some potential advancement coming that will allow hitters to catch up in this space?
Keith Law
1:36
I think many hitting labs/coaches focus too much on single metrics of power or contact quality, like EV or launch angle, when there's often a more fundamental problem at play like pitch or ball/strike recognition. There are certainly teams and coaches that work on the latter, but there seems to be more approaches at work here than there are for pitchers.
Kevin
1:36
Thoughts on the Bello extension? Upside of a potential #2?
Keith Law
1:36
Love him and yes.
Ryan
1:36
You're a fan of power metal, right? Have you ever heard of Unleash the Archers? Big fan. The singer's voice is incredible.
Keith Law
1:37
I would say yes ... old-school thrash will never get old for me. I was listening to some Power Trip the other day and I love the music, although the late singer's voice was too abrasive for me and too forward in the mix. (I can deal with some pretty abrasive vocals when they're mixed lower, behind the guitars.)
AK
1:37
Hey Keith, just picked up Wingspan and have no idea wtf is going on. Any good advice/tutorials out there to get started?
Keith Law
1:37
When in doubt, ask Rodney:
Ollie
1:37
Ryne Nelson has looked really good so far this spring. I'm guessing he'll win the fifth starter job. Any thoughts on his performance or improved slider?
Keith Law
1:39
Spring performance doesn't mean anything and if his slider is different this year I haven't seen/heard it. I've been a big Nelson fan, though.
Zirinsky
1:39
Keith: When is it useful to start looking at results from veteran pitchers in ST? And obviously it's possible that the answer is "never."
Keith Law
1:39
I just don't, unless, say, a guy suddenly is walking batters at twice the rate, or has lost his fastball. Something really drastic.
PhillyJake
1:39
I'm finally reading Smart Baseball.  Just finished the OPS chapter last night.  I was blown away by the difference of a .400 OBP and .400SLG guy vs. a .300 OPB and .500SLG guy. Thanks for the enlightenment!
Keith Law
1:39
Glad you enjoyed it!
Michael
1:39
Thanks for doing these chats, Keith! I'll be in Seattle for the first time in a few weeks. Any restaurant recommendations?
Keith Law
1:40
Yes, I was there in July for the Futures Game. https://meadowparty.com/blog/2023/07/15/seattle-eats/
Chris
1:40
Have you seen “Anatomy of a Fall” yet? Curious what you think.
Keith Law
1:40
Not yet. I think we're going to end up seeing just 7/10 BP nominees before the Oscars, although eventually we'll get them all.
JR
1:40
At what point are Snell and Montgomery at risk for missing start of the season if they haven't signed? Or are we there already? Seems like an offensive player could be ready in a few days, but a pitcher would need more reps against live batting to get ready.
Keith Law
1:41
Yes. I'd say we're at that point now.
Jacob
1:41
Of the two Cal guys, Rodney Green Jr. and Caleb Lomavita, who would you draft first and who do you think gets drafted first?
Keith Law
1:41
Only one is on the top 30 today...
Gregory
1:41
Telling little boys that they might actually be girls trapped in a boy's body is, definitionally, grooming.
Keith Law
1:42
This is such a fundamental misunderstanding that it makes me despair of the state of our education system. Nobody is "telling" anyone they're trans, or queer, or anything else. That's not how any of this works!
James
1:42
It seems like Chourio is going to make the opening day roster. What would be your predicted slash line for him over 500-600 PA?
Keith Law
1:43
.270/.310/.425. Kind of seeing a slow build, maybe a rough start in April/May, some adjustment period, and a strong finish.
Mike
1:43
None prospect question....but the Twins sure are betting a lot on a healthy Paddock and Descalfini after losing Gray. Is this really going to work (in the post season if they get there)?
Keith Law
1:44
Paddack has never thrown 150 innings in a professional season, and he's only made 20 starts in a season twice (2019 and 2021). Banking on him as a starter is irrational.
Eric
1:44
the founding fathers would be amazed that two near-octogenarians would be running for president one day. but hey, let's go crazy
Keith Law
1:45
I mean, they would not recognize much of anything in our society, from guns to racial justice to who's allowed to vote and own land and so on. Also, imagine handing one of them a smartphone.
Jakey
1:45
I found your newsletter on trans stuff in TX to be spot on
Keith Law
1:45
Thank you. Leave trans kids alone.
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