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Klawchat 3/8/18
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Keith Law
1:00
So numb, can't even react. Klawchat.
What's in a name?
1:00
Did you know there was never a major league baseball player with the first name of Tyler before 1993?  Now there have been about 40.  The Yanks set a new record with 4 Tylers last year.  There were no Brandons before 2000; now there have been about 50. The 2012 A's had FIVE.
Keith Law
1:01
I believe in 2013 we had four players in the first round or so named Hunter. We gave our daughter a name that had never appeared on any of those top 100 baby names list to avoid something like this (plus we loved the name we gave her anyway).
Joseph
1:01
I looked forward to these every week. I heard reports that Vlad Guerrero Jr is THICC right now (not in a bad way). But it seems more likely he moves from 3B to 1B. What percentages of likelihood would you put on it?
Keith Law
1:02
I'm not certain you have to move him to 1b; he's a big boy, but not unathletic, and maybe he could stand in an outfield corner. Probably 40/60 on him staying at third.
Jo-Nathan
1:02
Knowing how you feel about Tim Tebow, what were your thoughts on Michael Jordan as a ‘prospect’ in 94?
Keith Law
1:03
I was 20 and busy finishing my senior thesis. I really had no idea at the time whether it was plausible or a publicity stunt or something to do with gambling.
addoeh
1:03
Who signs first; Jake Arrieta or Kirk Cousins?
Keith Law
1:03
Did Arrieta solicit suggestions on social media?
One Klawwi Boi
1:03
You mentioned in chat weeks ago that Jo Adell has the highest ceiling of anyone in the 2018 draft. If he has a productive year, does he vault into top 20 consideration going into 2019? Potentially higher? Is his ceiling a 65 FV?
Keith Law
1:05
I don't love putting specific numbers like that 'future value' on players this young & far away. I think he has superstar upside, but also huge risk ... early last spring I had scouts telling me they were questioning whether he could hit at all, talking about him on the mound, and then he hurt his arm but started making more/better contact. I do think his full-season debut will tell us a lot more about how advanced a hitter he is - whether he's a Trout/Vlad Jr type who already has a good enough approach to race up the minors or will be more a level-by-level guy or is something even less than that (which I doubt, but it's possible).
Hello
1:05
My friend wants me to ask you: "Is Rafael Devers going to be Baby Miggy?"
Keith Law
1:05
I wouldn't put that on any prospect.
Romo
1:05
If you were in a front office, would you have removed Seth Romero from your draft board?
Keith Law
1:06
I would have, given what we know about his behavior, his medicals, and his delivery. It is a legit plus-plus changeup, though, and above-average velocity, from the left side. I understand why he went where he did, but there are risks I'll stomach and some I won't.
Eric
1:06
I don't expect you to know the Vegas win totals off the top of your head, but are there any teams projected for the bottom half of baseball that you could see surprising people this year if a couple dominoes fall the right way?
Keith Law
1:06
I'll look at that later this month. Right now I've been more focused on draft stuff.
Faria
1:06
Does Faria have a future as a starter? If so, what's his ceiling, #4?
Keith Law
1:06
Yes. League-average sort of upside.
Garrett
1:06
It'll be at least 2020 before Walker Buehler pitches 200 innings, right?
Keith Law
1:07
I'll put 50/50 odds on him never pitching 200 innings in a season.
And that's not a criticism; I think he's potentially elite, but unlikely to handle what is now a top-end workload.
Joseph
1:07
I'm making Pastrami for St Paddy's day and I've never done it before (though I've smoked brisket half a dozen times). Was wondering if you had any advice for me and wish me luck!
Keith Law
1:07
I have never made brisket in any form, sorry. Even when I did eat beef, the time required & the quantity produced made it a poor investment.
Mike
1:08
What's the deal with Dayton Moore about dragging the Royals into his uber-conservative social stances? First the Royals teamed with an anti-abortion group as a marketing partner (and declined to let Planned Parenthood participate in a similar marketing program), and now the Royals are hosting anti-porn workshops for their players. Moore can believe whatever he wants and support whatever social cause he feels best represents his views. But to drag the Royals into it from an official (i.e., team-sanctioned) POV....Huh???
Keith Law
1:11
I had the same thought last night. He is absolutely entitled to his personal views and to conduct himself in a manner consistent with them. This anti-porn thing is a bad joke, though; the individual and societal effects of pornography have been researched for decades, and no link has been found between pornography viewing or availability and things like sexual assault rates. (Porn may actually reduce such rates, although I think the relationship is weak.) You don't like porn? Absolutely fine. But what the Royals are doing here and with their anti-abortion partners is bringing religion into a secular work place, and I would hope a Royals player would exercise his rights and fight back.
Jay
1:11
Would you give Andujar the starting job at third?
Keith Law
1:11
Yes, although I think they'll give it to Drury now and aim to have Andujar up by midyear.
Jay
1:11
Kannapolis or Winston-Salem - where would you start Robert out?
Keith Law
1:12
I hope to see him this weekend, at which point I may have a different answer, but my gut right now is Kannapolis. Easy to move him up if he overwhelms the league; hard to demote a guy this high-profile.
TJ
1:12
Do you think that Moustakas is just netter off waiting until June once the comp pick goes? He doesn't seem to have a lot to gain by signing a short term deal
Keith Law
1:12
Yes.
Andrew
1:13
Keith - Thanks for the time, always enjoy the chats.  Quick question with a little broader scope - do have any thoughts or heard anything on the grapevine to explain the Yankees improvement in player development over the last ~5 years?
Keith Law
1:14
They've shifted their draft philosophy somewhat, especially with higher picks; they've changed how they develop pitchers, including working with weighted balls, which has led to a lot of guys gaining velocity; and they've been more focused on getting and retaining prospects in trades.
Rodney
1:14
Hi Keith, thanks for doing these chats! The biggest knock against Matt Thaiss seems to be the lack of power he's shown. Do his 2 home runs in 22 spring training PA signal anything, or is typical spring training stats noise?
Keith Law
1:14
Everything in spring training stats is noise. It's even worse in Arizona because the entire league tends to favor home run production.
Nick
1:15
Andrew Vaughn is off to a great start. How does his bat compare to the 1B-only bats in the 2018 class like Beer and Baker?
Keith Law
1:15
Beer isn't 1B only. I don't think Vaughn or Baker is a first rounder.
Dingus McGee
1:15
I hear a lot about spring training stats don't mean much, if anything, but what do teams/scouts/those in the know look at during March games?
Keith Law
1:16
You can still look at players to see, from the seats or in Trackman data, if something tangible has changed. A new delivery, a reduced spin rate, a different launch angle, a new pitch, more velocity ... those are real changes that can impact this season's performance, but the tiny samples and inconsistent competition of spring training makes those stats useless.
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