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Klawchat 5/14/20
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Keith Law
1:00
I didn't mean to take you up all your sweet time. Klawchat.
addoeh
1:01
I know your default statement is all 1st rounders sign.  Will that still apply this year?
Keith Law
1:03
I don't think so. Too much uncertainty on both sides. Strong possibility a team takes a player and offers him 50-60% of slot, says "take it or leave it," and if he doesn't sign just takes the compensatory pick next year. (I'd have a lot to say over on The Athletic if that happens.) Also, I think a lot of HS kids will just choose junior college or their original college commitments if they aren't drafted where they expected they would be.
joshkvt
1:03
Isn't all talk about starting sports premature until we have a national testing plan (or even pretend to have a federal response)? MLB/NBA etc. burning through 10s of thousands of tests for entertainment when sick people of less means and grocery workers can't be tested seems a recipe for long-term resentment by rational people.
Keith Law
1:04
Testing and contact tracing. I know Delaware is moving forward with a contact tracing plan before we reopen too many places, but other states are rushing to reopen without anything of the sort. I've mentioned the Arizona data a few times, because I don't know how baseball restarts if Arizona doesn't have the pandemic under control yet - the U of A's site has the state's Rt at 1.18-1.23, which is nowhere near "under control."
Nick
1:04
I recently made it to the episode of The Wire with Prezbo's quote that you used in your book. Started watching the show since I've seen you praise it a couple of times, and I've very much enjoyed it. Also really enjoyed your book!
Keith Law
1:05
Excellent choice. It's a big commitment but IMO worth it in the long run. Never seen a series that tackled that many important topics while also working in so much entertainment value.
Aaron C.
1:05
Wife's been ordering weekly boxes of produce from local farmers. Any preparation recommendations with the occasional eggplant, acorn squash or bok choy in the box, Klaw?
Keith Law
1:06
Roast or grill the eggplant to scoop out the center and make baba ghanoush. Bok choy is the perfect ingredient for homemade soup with ramen or soba (you can buy instant dashi powder online for the broth). I am not a huge fan of acorn squash but you can roast it, let it drain a little as it cools, then mash it to make gnocchi.
Aaron C.
1:06
Acknowledging that pretty much EVERY celebrity encounter is mundane, do you have a memorably mundane celebrity encounter?
Keith Law
1:07
I remember seeing (but not talking to) Fred Schneider of the B-52s on a bus in lower Manhattan in 1992. Maybe 15 years ago I spotted Doug Wilson, one of the designers on Trading Spaces, in a Starbucks in Manhattan. He saw me recognize him, so I gave him the 'hey' head-nod and he returned the gesture. I don't think it gets more mundane than that.
Ryan
1:08
Ok so I used to write in these that the GOP was tanking for better draft picks, but I didn’t realize it also meant their tanking involving killing thousands of people ...
Keith Law
1:08
How can satire survive when one political party is openly advocating for a higher death rate to save the economy?
Dave
1:08
Hi Klaw. Just wanted to say that I'm enjoying the Inside Game. I was also wondering if you're going to send your daughter back to school in August/September because "young people are in great shape" and since "you can be driving to school and some bad things can happen". Also hoping you can enlighten me as to how a scientific fact can be unacceptable.
Keith Law
1:09
Those pesky scientific facts always getting in the way of poll numbers!
(I hope schools reopen, but I'm not an optimist, not on this subject.)
Matthew
1:09
Do you think music criticism is an important discipline and do you have any recommendations of any must-read music writers?
Keith Law
1:09
I'm not sure how to answer the first part, but no, I do not read any specific music writers as I do with the work of some movie critics.
Ben B
1:09
You're back! No question. Just a sincere thank you for the chat. I'm sure you get trolled to the max and get so many covid questions that there are no answers to, but we appreciate you holding the chat and giving us some kind of interaction to look forward to during these hard days.
Keith Law
1:10
I'm sorry it took me so long to do one, but I felt like there wasn't enough real baseball to talk about - at least now with my mock draft, and a scheduled draft date, we can get back to that amongst your various board game, food, and book questions.
Andy
1:10
Any chance Veen or Hancock make it to the Rockies at 9?
Keith Law
1:10
Right now, I would say no, zero chance.
Guest
1:10
What impact do you think the draft changes will have on 2021, 2022 and 2023 high school graduates?
Keith Law
1:11
I think 2021 is significantly altered, because many players from this year's draft will try again next year (college players returning as seniors/fourth-year juniors, HS kids who try junior college). Then there will be a smaller ripple effect into 2022, and so on. It's beyond those players' control, however, so it's best to just focus on what they can control - their performance, skills, conditioning - and let the draft fall where it may.
JR
1:11
I'm sure everyone will ask this...but your current best guess, do we get MLB this year?
Keith Law
1:12
I believe the various sides will push something through - there is too much internal and external pressure to make a season happen - but that it will likely happen before the public health situation is sufficiently stable, and there will be a high risk of a shutdown to the resumed season.
Mike
1:12
You had the Red Sox going safe in the 1st round with Chris McMahon - do you expect Boston to try to save a little bit of $ at 1-17 to use later given the lack of a 2nd rounder?
Keith Law
1:13
No, I think they'll be one of many teams staying college/conservative because of the way this spring unfolded. Not a permanent change in philosophy but a reaction to this year's unusual events.
Leo
1:13
Would you say Austin Wells is the best college bat in the class after Martin, Gonzales, Kjerstad? Which would be the best comp for him and why he's not getting the buzz he should?
Keith Law
1:13
I don't think he is the next-best college bat; he's not getting more buzz because teams don't think there's any chance he can catch.
KirkGibsonfan
1:13
I think your mock was what you think will happen. If you ran the Tigers - would you take Torkelson or Martin? As a Tiger fan - should I be disappointed that the Tigers take a right handed hitting 1B at 1?
Keith Law
1:15
If Martin had come out this spring with the same arm he showed last year, he'd be the easy 1-1 for me. He had some throwing trouble in the first few weekends, and nobody knows (as far as I know) if it was a blip or something serious. I remember Anthony Rendon dealing with a sore shoulder his junior year that affected his swing, but it turned out to be nothing and he should have gone 1 or 2 in that draft. Maybe this is the same?
Tony
1:15
With no baseball, I've been doing a lot of looking back. As a Hall of Fame voter, how much value do you place on peak vs longevity? For example, if Cole Hamels ends up with 70 WAR and 3,000 strikeouts, is he a Hall of Famer, even though he never had a noticeable peak, just a lot of 5ish WAR seasons?
Keith Law
1:15
My gut reaction is 'no,' because I want stars in the Hall, not just the good-for-a-long-time types like that or Buehrle. No disrespect to such players, but the plaques should go to the very best.
Aaron C.
1:15
Nothing but respect for MY president *checks notes* Blake Snell?!
Keith Law
1:15
Indeed. Slapdicks represent!
Peteprz
1:16
Think a team in the teens taking JT Ginn would be reaching? How high is the chance of that happening?
Keith Law
1:16
I think he's someone's second pick. Perfect candidate for that.
Guest
1:16
Just finished Smart Baseball (fascinating!), which spurred me on to read Moneyball (almost done!). What should I read next?
Keith Law
1:16
Russell Carleton's The Shift.
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