Klawchat, 6/12/17.
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Keith Law
3:12
I don't know the third tier of prospects as well this year as I have in past years so I don't have any great answers on that - but I do like Stephen Jennings, Kyle Hurt, and Blaine Enlow, all pretty high on my Big Board but not likely to to go first round.
Paul
3:12
Hey Keith. Thanks for the chat. I keep reading that the Dbacks are interested in Pavan Smith, and reading about him really does not excite me. Is there any chance he can play a position other than first base? And how much power do you think he'll end up having? Thanks!
Keith Law
3:13
First base only. I think average power. Some people think more. I've never seen him really hit anything hard, and to me that's a swing for contact rather than power.
Trixie
3:13
Who's your favorite mystery writer? Have you ever read anything by Sue Grafton?
Keith Law
3:13
Still Agatha Christie. Never read anything by Grafton or other mass-market authors like her.
Dave
3:13
Keith, thanks for all your draft coverage. Do you think the A's will take a HS OF (Beck, maybe Lewis) or college bat (Smith, Hiura) at 6?
Keith Law
3:13
I think Beck is their guy, unless Gore gets there. Not on Lewis or Smith.
Nate
3:13
Thanks for the chat Keith! What are your thoughts on the recent rumors that the Twins might be trying to cut a deal with Royce Lewis at 1-1 and, if they do, who might they be considering at 35?
Keith Law
3:14
That's been rumored for a few weeks, but I don't see why Lewis would take an underslot deal at 1. He's going 4 or 5 at worst, so why would he sign for less than McKay, who's also going 4 or 5 if he doesn't go 1, and has less leverage than Lewis does? I could be way off but I wonder if there's some posturing here to negotiate McKay (or someone else) down.
Will
3:15
Michael Chavis is showing some power at High A this season. How much, if at all, does this change Chavis's prospect stock?
Keith Law
3:15
He was hurt last year but didn't disclose it or miss any time. So I'd rather say that my rankings of him off last year were the error, and he'll resume his correct place now that he's health and performing again.
Kevin
3:15
Why do you think Minnesota is passing on Greene for a college arm?
Keith Law
3:15
For increased certainty.
Moltar
3:15
Am I wrong to be kind of underwhelmed with the mock selection of Lange to the Mets? His scouting reports don't get me as excited as Pearson or Peterson if they're set on an arm (I'd rather they catch my fave pokemon Warmoth).
Keith Law
3:15
I would take Warmoth there in a heartbeat. Lange for me is almost certainly a reliever.
Craig
3:16
Every draft preview I have seen has the Brewers taking a HS outfielder with a comment about how MIL keeps collecting outfielders with a certain profile (speedy, plus defense, good bat with potential for developing power). To what extent is that an organizational plan vs. collecting guys that happen to be available at that time/spot?
Keith Law
3:16
I haven't made that comment - I don't think that's their profile or type, just that they take BPA. They could take Kendall too, college guy who can run and has power but needs a lot of swing help, along the lines of Montgomery taking other top talents who got farther down the draft than they should have.
Joe-Nathan
3:17
I remember Nathan Kirby opting out of the draft by refusing to subject himself to drug testing a few years ago, so my question is there anything onerous about being draft eligible? If not why would anyone, like Joe Boyle, declare themselves ineligible for the draft????
Keith Law
3:17
It's possible the player didn't think he could pass the drug test. It's also possible the player is just taking bad advice from the college coach, too. I would never send any young pitcher to Notre Dame; Mik Aoki has a long history of overusing pitchers and no history of developing them.
Andy
3:17
Hi, Keith! Hope all is well with you and your family. Not sure if this chat is solely about tonight's mock, but I had a non-draft question for you. Have you had a chance to see Lucas Giolito over the past month or so? I've been lucky enough to catch most of his starts this year and he's never looked better than he has of late. He's confident in the curve and has this really neat changeup, too. Wanted to see if you've heard anything about him lately as the Sox unravel and piece back together his motion and mechanics.
Keith Law
3:18
Haven't seen him but have talked to folks who have and am hearing just that - he's getting close to where he was before Mike Maddux etc. changed his delivery.
Kevin
3:18
How much projection is left for Gore? Seems like a safe choice (for a HS pick), but am I wrong thinking that he'll be nothing more that a #3/4 in time?
Keith Law
3:18
Totally disagree. Much more upside than that.
Casey (Saint Paul, MN)
3:18
Hello Keith, Are teams likely to overlook Kyle Wright's most recent game or is that something that could actually impact his draft position?
Keith Law
3:18
You consider everything. It's a factor, but shouldn't be weighted more heavily than other starts (hello, recency bias).
Adam
3:18
Has the lack of over-the-fence power shown by Jorge Ona been concerning for some scouts?
Keith Law
3:19
That's an ambiguously-worded question. Am I concerned? Not really. It's two months.
Adam
3:19
Tommy Mace is an interesting prospect. Heard anything on him?
Keith Law
3:19
He's #99 on my Big Board.
Adam
3:19
Any teams tied to Mark Vientos?
Keith Law
3:19
Could sneak into the teens, likely in the 20-35 range, doesn't get past 41 Atlanta.
Adam
3:19
Does Mackenzie Gore's mechanics give evaluators some pause? His hip swing/ leg kick motion seems like it would be an injury concern as he ages.
Keith Law
3:20
On the contrary, I've had scouts praise him for it, saying it demonstrates how athletic he is.
Joe-Nathan
3:20
I get that Seth Romero is talented but how can a staff full of educated adults justify giving this kid who clearly has issues over a million dollars by drafting him? The odds of him imploding are so high that
Keith Law
3:20
Your question cut off, but I think what you think. This is a bad idea.
banksy_
3:20
No question today, just want to say thank you for all that you do for your readers. I wouldn't follow the draft as closely if it weren't for you and many other writers that do a fantastic job of educating readers on the nuances of scouting and projecting amateur talent. But especially you, since I've really enjoyed your book so far! Looking forward to passing it on/recommending it to friends and family when I do finish it!
Keith Law
3:20
Thanks. Big fan of your street art, too.
Randy
3:20
In years past, you did a great job picking out Conforto and Benintendi as picks that had a good chance to move through the minors quickly. Whom would be your best players for similar advancement in today's draft?
Keith Law
3:21
Warmoth is my guy this year. Haseley too, but Warmoth is the one whose swing I like, and I think he stays at short.
Justin
3:21
To a draft newbie, if the consensus top talent by all accounts is Greene, why would the Twins not take him first? Higher probability of flameout as a high schooler than a college player?
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