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Live Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 7/18/17
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KH
3:23
Which closer has more value in trade, Britton or Osuna?
Steve Adams
3:24
Osuna, by a landslide. Been healthier, cheaper, more controllable. I love Britton and think he's the better pitcher between the two (when healthy), but Osuna's long-term control is immensely valuable
Sad Tiger
3:24
How big do they go as sellers?
Steve Adams
3:25
Avila, Justin Wilson, JD Martinez... I don't think much more beyond that. Guess they could move Romine or Iglesias, and perhaps Anibal if he keeps pitching well and they eat a big chunk of the cash. But that won't bring a ton in return
Mike Trout
3:26
any chance i get traded?
Steve Adams
3:26
Nope
Matthew Winters
3:26
Do you think that after the home run derby Aaron Judge's slump will continue for the rest of the season?
Steve Adams
3:27
There's been plenty of research to show that the Derby/second half slump is more correlation than causation. We just tend to selectively remember the ones who slump.

Judge was always due for some regression. Even with his hard-contact rate, he's not going to keep seeing 40 percent of the balls he puts in play land for hits. He'll be fine
Tommy Kahnle
3:28
Trade now or try to build more value?
Steve Adams
3:28
As always, it depends on what the offers are. I wouldn't take a so-so package on him just because you feel you need to take what you can get, but if someone buys into the breakout and offers a substantial return, there's no reason not to be open to it.
Antwan
3:29
Odds Acuna is called up this year? Before September?
Steve Adams
3:30
I mean, it seems like they're going in that direction. I don't really get it. He's 19 and barely played in High-A or Double-A. But to his credit, he's hit at every stop thus far. September seems like a reasonable guess based on this trajectory.
Manfred Long
3:31
WIth Adrian Gonzalez now hitting off the tee, do you see a realistic match with the Yankees?
Steve Adams
3:31
No -- there's no way of knowing when he'll play. I can't even tell if that was a serious question the more I look at it, ha
Felix
3:32
Does Brad Hand net the Padres two top 100 prospect?
Steve Adams
3:32
They're trying for it. I don't think it's happening, though. But hey they're got 13 days to market him... no reason not to be asking a ton right now.
Al Avila
3:33
do the Diamondbacks have the prospects to acquire JD Martinez?
Steve Adams
3:35
I'm sure they could entice the Tigers with some kind of young MLB-ready ish piece (Brito is healthy and playing well, for instance) plus some lower-level guys, but if the Rockies and others are really interested, it won't be hard to outbid the D-backs. Arizona's farm is really thin after the Stewart/La Russa regime
TribeFan
3:35
How much do teams value the "hold" statistic?  How much do stats v. talent matter in a trade.  As an Indians fan, (and if you read their social media page), there's pitchforks and fires for players like Bryan Shaw and Carlos Santana, but from an outsider-looking-in, Shaw has a decent amount of holds (29), decent K/BB rate (36/18; 7.8 K's/9), and an average(ish) WHIP (1.23), while Santana draws a metric ton of walks, and while he's had a horrible year this year (his WAR is .5.  Yeesh, wasn't aware it was THAT bad).  Do you think these two would be a good package to someone looking for a 1B/RP combo like the Yankees?
Steve Adams
3:36
I don't think teams give a crap about the hold stat other than when it comes into play in arb hearings, ha. Shaw's been OK this season, Santana not very good... I don't think the Indians are moving any pieces off their big league roster when trying to win right now though.
Bob
3:37
Will any teams be interested in Melky Cabrera?
Steve Adams
3:37
I think he'll be a fallback for teams (especially AL clubs) if they try for someone like JDM or Bruce and miss. But his glove isn't great, and the bat doesn't compensate for the lack of defense as much as it does with a Martinez or a Bruce
Ian
3:38
When do we see Rosario in queens?
Steve Adams
3:39
I have no earthly idea. I'm not really sure why he's not there already. At this point maybe they wait 'til September? There's no rush anymore since they're obviously not contending.
HS
3:39
what is the tipping point on a KC fire sale?  +/- 5 games back at the deadline?
Steve Adams
3:39
The notion of a fire sale has long since passed. They're trying to add pieces. I mean, if they drop 11 of 12 games before the deadline or something, maybe that changes, but short of that it's not happening.
Jacob Greenia
3:40
Any chance the A's shop Khris Davis? Marcus Semien? Ryon Healy?
Steve Adams
3:41
Given Beane's recent comments and the fact that Khrush is already arb-eligible, I'm sure Oakland will be open to it. Semien would be likelier than Healy, but his value isn't exactly sky-high having missed most of the season due to injury (even if it was a freak wrist fracture). Healy will finish the season in the one-year-plus service bracket, so less urgency on him still.
Brandon
3:42
Does Bobby Evans have a job next year?
Steve Adams
3:43
Of course. The Giants have had like, one bad year in how many? And Sabean/Evans have been there throughout this entire run. 2017 doesn't jeopardize that. The guy was a huge component in the Giants winning three World Series in six years.
Joey
3:43
Between JDM and Justin Wilson, can the tigers land more than 2 top 100 pieces?
Steve Adams
3:45
More, I don't think so. Two exactly, probably.

I'll say, as I said last week, that I think people get way, way too caught up in prospect lists. I know it's the best avenue to prospect evaluation most of us have, but those things are snapshots in time. If Baseball America released their Top 100 prospects in early August instead of early July, it'd look different. And teams are hardly beholden to those rankings. It's not like Al Avila is going to pull up BA's and MLB.com's lists and work off those as he's negotiating trades. Teams have their own scouts, their own analysts, and their own rankings, and those evaluations are in a constant state of flux.
Hep
3:45
Twins make a block buster?
Steve Adams
3:46
Nah -- I bet they add some kind of rental arm for the rotation (Trevor Cahill?) and add another reliever but not a top-tier one. I don't think they're going to gut the top of the system to make a run at Sonny Gray or anything.
Flarp
3:47
Odds Marlins don't deal out anyone?
Steve Adams
3:48
They're going to trade some pieces. Just not the ones everyone's excited about. I think Phelps and Ramos are as good as gone, and Ziegler could move too. Tom Koehler, perhaps. But as for Ozuna, Yelich, Stanton, Realmuto... I'm not expecting that
Mike
3:48
What do you expect the Angels to do before the deadline
Steve Adams
3:49
It's a better question for next week, because I genuinely think that as of this moment, they're not even sure. If they win five games in a row or something, that's going to have a serious impact on their thinking. If they drop five of their next six, they'll all but certainly sell off some short-term assets
3:50
They're one of the bubble teams that are in this type of limbo almost every year... the second Wild Card addition has caused a lot of teams to go right down to the wire in making this determination. Six years ago, the Angels would probably be all but certain to sell right now
Karl Vanderburg
3:51
Does Kendyrs Morales have any trade value? Do you think the Jays try to dump him off at the deadline?
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