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Live Chat With Tim Dierkes
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Graham
2:31
Dan Warthan was fired in 2017!
Tim Dierkes
2:31
Ha...yeah.  Dave Eiland I meant.  I'm kind of bad with pitching coaches.
aka22
2:31
Why is Dansby Swanson considered a good enough SS to take the Braves out of the Machado running? The difference between those two feels gigantic.
Tim Dierkes
2:31
He's not.  They just don't feel like spending that kind of money.
ke'bryan mays hayes
2:31
How much does Gio Gonzalez have left in the tank, and where do you think he winds up?
Tim Dierkes
2:35
It has been a remarkably quiet offseason for Gio.  Needless to say he will not be reaching our two-year, $24MM projection.  He's a guy who can take the ball every fifth day and give you a 4.50 ERA.  I'd probably peg him around one year, $6-7MM at this point.  I'd have to flip through some depth charts to see who has a fifth starter worse than this.
Dave Eiland
2:35
Did I get fired?
Cubs?
2:35
Windows closing. Bryant is coming off an injury that seems to have sapped his power. Are you surprised the Cubs aren't checking in given the relatively weak market for Harper? It seems that would make them a quick favorite!
Tim Dierkes
2:36
If Theo is operating in stealth mode on Bryce, he's pulling a fast one on basically all local and national reporters trying to sniff that out.  Maybe if somehow Harper is looking at a $250MM contract and Theo knows it, he can convince Ricketts he's being pennywise and pound foolish here.
2:37
I think most fans understand that teams will have down cycles where they spend less money or choose not to go the extra mile for their roster.  They just don't want the team to take that approach when they are smack dab in the middle of an amazing chance to win a World Series.
KC Fan.
2:38
Nice articles and explanation on Merrifield contract.  Thanks.  Just curious what you put the odds of Merrifield still being a Royal in 2021 at?  50\50?
Tim Dierkes
2:38
Jeff Todd crushing it.  I'll go 80/20 he stays.
Skeptical Phils Fan
2:38
Do you think Matt Klentak is being played in this free agent market? After all the posturing, there is at least a 50-50 chance that Machado will go to the White Sox and Harper back to DC. In which case, I guess we'd add Kuechel and I definitely feel that Segura, Robertson and McCutch are upgrades. Still, can't help thinking we're getting played here.
Tim Dierkes
2:39
The Phillies are in the catbird seat.  If the offseason ends and they don't have Harper or Machado, and the price tags settle at $300MM or less, I'd say the club probably misplayed its hand.  But let's let things play out before judging them on that.
BeninSF
2:39
With a little luck, rebounding, and health, couldn't the Giants contend this season with Bryce?
Tim Dierkes
2:42
Say it's a 76 win team.  Harper adds five wins to the ledger so you're at 81.  Pomeranz and Samardzija could beat their projections and get you three more wins to get to 84.  Grab Marwin in a Boras package deal, add two more wins, you're at 86.  The Giants would firmly be in Wild Card territory in that scenario.
I do not think they hired Zaidi to do that.
Matt
2:43
The off-season is, yes, slow but do people tend to glare on only the negativity? We saw Patrick Corbin be aggressive and get his huge deal from the get go. I think it could still be much worse than it is now.
Tim Dierkes
2:44
Corbin, Eovaldi, Cutch, maybe Britton.  That's the entire list of free agents who beat expectations.  When everyone has signed there will be a much longer list of players who fell short of expectations.  Props to the Nationals for doing what it takes to get the best available starter rather than bottom-feeding.
Seebs
2:44
Speaking of Brewers, why not bring up Hiura when his super two kicks in and not buy a stopgap?  Sure would like him sooner than later
Tim Dierkes
2:45
Well, the kid didn't really light up Double-A.  But I'm sure he's on their radar for a big league call this year and rather than worry about Super Two, they'll probably just make sure he can't get a full year of service this year (so anytime in late April or beyond).
Red Sox Bullpen
2:46
Do I even exist?
Tim Dierkes
2:47
Our writer Steve Adams has expressed amazement at a team like the Red Sox, with so many players possibly departing soon, hitting the brakes on spending with the bullpen they have.  Good parallel to the Cubs.  GUYS: you can be cheap in a few years!  Now is "go for it" time!
Lance Lynn
2:47
I would say I beat expectations too, Tim.
Tim Dierkes
2:47
Good catch, yes he's on the list.
Windy City
2:47
So lets say Cubs salary dump Zobrist, do they have someone earmarked for his salary?
Tim Dierkes
2:48
One would hope that dumping Zo would be for the express purpose of a run at Kimbrel, if they were to dump Zo.
Old Timey Mustache
2:48
Which ends first? This chat, or a Realmuto trade to the Reds announcment?
Tim Dierkes
2:49
Jon Heyman says the Reds are making progress on a JTR trade.  I think this chat ends before a deal is done.
2:51
By the way, let's talk about the Reds!  So refreshing to see a team trying to seize the day.  If they get JTR without Senzel that would seem pretty good.  If the Reds got JTR I'd say all five NL Central teams are in a fairly tight band - something like 80-87 wins.  This division will hopefully be a dogfight.
Ben
2:51
Rizzo, Bryant, Baez....which one is a Cub beyond their current control in 2022?
Tim Dierkes
2:52
My guess would be Rizzo.  He has that Cub for Life feel and will be 32 when his contract runs out.  He might not be looking at a huge FA score and could hopefully settle on something reasonable to remain a Cub - even if they decide to take a step back around that time.
The Market
2:53
How much is what's we've witnessed the past few years just a "bad" CBA and how much is there is a secular market change in how players are valued?  Who at the MLBPA thought penalizing revenue share paying teams International $ was a good idea?
Tim Dierkes
2:54
I think more the latter.  Teams just decided they didn't want to keep doing certain kinds of free agent deals, and they almost all seem to agree on it.  I don't see what Tony Clark could have forced into the CBA to make teams give Harper and Machado the kinds of contracts people like me expected them to get.
2:55
I'm also not clear on the way forward or how this could be remedied.  We can't mandate teams give out ten-year free agent contracts.  Things like earlier free agency or a greatly increased league min salary would move the needle in the players' direction, but wouldn't bring back the days of the Albert Pujols style contract.
Bill from mke
2:55
Aside from vlad jr in the AL who are top ROY candidates?
Tim Dierkes
2:57
Eloy Jimenez, Forrest Whitley, Jesus Luzardo, Nick Senzel, Victor Robles, and Kyle Tucker are near the top of my list.
Barring a Harper return, Robles is probably my NL pick, as his path is clear and he seems ready to pop.
Berra Knowledgeable
2:57
Why wouldn't the Angels make an insane push and sign Harper?  Imagine having Trout and Harper for a run?
Tim Dierkes
3:00
This would require a $200MM payroll on a team that's been firmly in the $165MM range for the past three years.  It would require Arte Moreno to be the one to save Scott Boras, which I still find far-fetched.  (Steve and Jeff liked the Angels for Keuchel at the outset of the offseason and I did not for that reason).  That said, yeah man, 84 win team becomes 87-88 and would have the fast track on the second wild card.
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