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Live Chat With Tim Dierkes
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Tim Dierkes
10:33
The Nats and Padres are flush with outfielders.  It is the Giants who could badly use someone like Jones.  The Indians are a popular pick.  Projected OF: Allen, Martin, Naquin.  Oof.  Luplow in there too.  A 93 win team rolling with those guys...across all four the WAR projection is 3.5 WAR.
SpacelySprocketts
10:33
Are the "antics" of this offseason and last proof that baseball needs a salary floor and cap?
Tim Dierkes
10:34
It's hard to see how a hard cap would help matters.  We've already got teams treating a tax as if it's a cap.  And if you look at something like this from our Steve Adams: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/a-closer-look-at-the-red-sox-an...
10:35
Steve gave an example: the Red Sox signing Kimbrel at 1/17.5 would really be like paying him $29MM.
Even though I've dogged them for not pushing more chips into their bullpen, that's a pretty strong case to stop spending or at least move some money.
10:36
I've never been a huge fan of a salary floor.  Free agent spending is generally dumb.  Forcing teams to do it is not an ideal fix.  Getting fewer teams to tank is a better idea, as well as pushing more money to younger players who teams would feel better about paying.
10:38
MLB did this to themselves a bit with draft slotting and international spending caps.  If neither of those things existed, I'm not sure the Tigers would be tanking right now.  They could have just consistently spent big in those areas over the last five years and some of those investments would be bearing fruit currently.
Even a small market team like the Pirates was willing to go way over slot in the draft.  It helped reduce the down periods teams now feel they're forced to go through.
Astros guy
10:38
When will the Realmutto thing actually happen? It's exhausting
Tim Dierkes
10:39
We all hope it happens next week at the latest.  Part of it though is the redundant reporting we keep getting on this, with promises of "progress" or "substantive dialogue" that hasn't really meant anything.
Rod “Hot Rod” Trickle
10:39
I feel like India, Barnhart and another lesser piece (as reported) lands Realmuto. Your thoughts?
Tim Dierkes
10:40
If I'm the Marlins, no.  A team like that shouldn't assign much value to Barnhart, and the headliner should not be a 55 prospect like India.
Plus there was a report that the Reds have been pushing India to teams all winter, which is a red flag.
Garrett
10:40
What trade/signing is going to set off the domino effect? Do you see a frenzy of signings before ST begins?
Tim Dierkes
10:42
I do think it drags into March, especially for the Boras guys.  That could mean a rougher start to the year for Keuchel or Marwin, because full spring training really seems to help players.
10:43
I don't necessarily see a domino situation.  Maybe for the Phillies, since we've seen reports that getting Harper/Machado could trigger another move like Keuchel or Kimbrel.
10:44
But there should be Keuchel/Marwin/Kimbrel suitors who are not Harper/Machado finalists.  Why those players are at a stalemate I don't know, but the obvious answer is that all the offers have been disappointing to them.
Bryce Harper
10:44
Should I sign a one year 30 million contract with the Nats?
Tim Dierkes
10:45
I think if Bryce decides to do a one-year deal, which I still find unlikely, the Nats are the best choice.  I feel like he has to get at least 1/35 and could reasonably get 1/40 though.
BirdDog
10:45
What chances are there that the Rangers are a suitor for Adam Jones?
Tim Dierkes
10:46
With DeShields as the projected starting CF, I find the chances reasonable.
Harper
10:46
Are my tweets are teasing an announcement? Hoskins had a similar tweet as well
Tim Dierkes
10:48
For those unaware, Bryce Harper tweeted, "Loading..." about 14 hours ago.  I guess if I had a million followers, I'd mess with them too?  I have no idea why Loading means.  But I am not of Bryce's generation.
Richter
10:48
STL's front office has expressed that they may be done shopping in the offseason with money to spend and several quality pieces that could give them a boost. Do you think they're in a position to take the NL Central with what they've got?
Tim Dierkes
10:49
Yes.  If you want to say the Cards are pretty much even with the Cubs, I buy that.  I don't see the other three NL Central teams quite in the same bracket, but it's all bunched together enough that literally any ordering of the five teams is plausible to me.
Matzabal
10:49
CarGo: why isnt he a great fit for the Indians?
Tim Dierkes
10:50
Same as Jones...he's fine in a "warm body, 1.5 WAR" sense, when your OF sucks as bad as it seems to.
Random Fanalyst
10:50
So here me out... the more I think about it, the more Toronto makes sense for Bryce Harper.  They have no legit corner OF prospects, but Vlad Jr./Bichette are close, almost no money on books beyond next year.
Tim Dierkes
10:51
Yes - the Jays are on my list as a team that makes sense for Harper or Machado.  However, it's not where American-born free agents prefer to go most of the time.  So you'd have to take a leap of faith that Rogers would beat the market, which seems unlikely.
Hahn at the table
10:51
why don't I push in my chips and offer Bryce and Manny 10*30 and Keuchel 5*20, and give them each 24 hours to sigh
Tim Dierkes
10:53
Rick Hahn = White Sox GM.  Well, to offer Keuchel that kind of money is just plain dumb. I'd be throwing Keuchel like 3/51 offers right now, maybe with an opt out or something.
10:54
Would I jump up to 10/300 on Bryce?  As a team I'd feel fine paying that to him, but with so few serious suitors, the safer play is to inch your way upward rather than start at the possible finishing point.
Tim
10:54
Well, my question on the mystery team for Harper got used by someone else. So, what are the odds you think Keuchel returns to the Astros and, if so, on what kind of deal?
Tim Dierkes
10:54
I'll give him a 15% chance to return and it would be on a one or two-year deal.  Like 1/18.5 or 2/35.
TimmyPinDC
10:55
I'd heard somewhere that the Nats were interested in Kimbrel. I couldn't figure out how that made any sense for him. He'd have to sign a one year deal I assume because he's going to want to close and that's not really in the cards in DC.  Any scenario you see that makes sense?
Tim Dierkes
10:57
The Nats seem to have about $11MM of wiggle room below the luxury tax threshold.  I imagine on a one-year deal the Nats would still have interest in Kimbrel, a very Rizzo type of signing.  Even if Doolittle and Rosenthal are pushed down the depth chart.
Mozeliak & Girsch, LLC
10:57
We lack for LH hitting. We have no face of the franchise moving forward. Ozuna won't be re-signed. Goldschmidt is 50/50 at best. Are we really letting Dexter Fowler stand in the way of Bryce Harper?
Tim Dierkes
10:59
I think it's fair to think as a fan that the Cards could carry a record payroll for a year (still under the luxury tax threshold) for Harper.  Plenty of money drops off after 2019.  But the bottom line is that they like their team.  And I believe even suggested that making an addition at this point could mess things up.
Steve
10:59
In what world does Harper sign with the White Sox? They've seemingly been tied to just Machado since December.
Tim Dierkes
10:59
They've been tied to Harper.  I'm pretty sure they're in the mix to some degree.
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