Live Chat With Tim Dierkes
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Tim Dierkes
1:56
Hello everyone!!!  Thanks for joining me for this hour long chat.  Feel free to ask any kind of baseball question.  Usually we just do hot stove stuff, but with fantasy drafts approaching, feel free to ask that type of question especially if it might have broad appeal.
Rob
1:57
Harper harper harper harper?
Tim Dierkes
1:57
Might as well get this out of the way...
1:58
Where will Bryce Harper sign this week?

Phillies (50.2% | 1,161 votes)
 
Giants (8.8% | 203 votes)
 
Dodgers (23.2% | 537 votes)
 
Nationals (2.6% | 61 votes)
 
Other (15.2% | 352 votes)
 

Total Votes: 2314
Brian
1:58
If Rick Hahn called Scott Boras today and offered 10-$335 would he be a White Sock?
Tim Dierkes
1:58
Yes, I believe he would.  He being Bryce Harper.
jc
1:58
what would you predict a aaron judge extension would look like?
Tim Dierkes
1:59
Whewwww...let me take a minute and ponder that.
2:00
I don't know if I can do this justice within a minute or two.
2:01
The next four years just cover his arbitration years.  On a related note, Matt Swartz has just created an arbitration calculator that will help me put a value on those four years for Judge.  So I'll test that baby out.  Judge's free agent years start with his age 31 season.
I imagine the Yankees are unwilling to go past Judge's age 35 season, and maybe not even that far, as when they did it with Aaron Hicks just now the numbers were so low that those last couple of seasons might as well have been free.
2:04
Maybe like eight years and $160MM?  Definitely don't hold me to that.  This would line up with Buster Posey's deal, though that's six years old.  The problem is that such a deal gives a $20MM luxury tax hit at a time when Judge's luxury tax hit is essentially zero and probably won't hit $20MM until 2021 or '22.
Jamie
2:04
Do you think Hanley Ramirez could help tribe?
Tim Dierkes
2:05
Not really...best case scenario seems to be a lefty masher off the bench.
Lunch Break
2:05
So, how likely is a strike going to happen?
Tim Dierkes
2:07
I will say that my chat questions on this topic were non-existent last week right after Machado had signed.  Discounted as that was, $300 mil still seems impressive as a number.  So Harper will probably get $300MM+ himself, and it's perhaps not the right time for players to complain.  It might come out better next winter.  Aaron Hicks just sold himself short, in my opinion, so it shows that players are scared of entering a frigid market.
Bryce Harper
2:07
Why do you assume I'm signing this week?
Tim Dierkes
2:07
Only because Bob Nightengale said so.
Father Hustle
2:07
I feel like Bryce wants to play for the Dodgers
Tim Dierkes
2:07
According to Nightengale, that would be his first choice, but both the Dodgers and Giants are looking to do a short-term deal.
Travis
2:07
To a fan or sportswriter, why does it matter if Harper gets his record contract?  Why does it seem the writers all want him to get a record.  Is this just for clicks?   He makes a bad team a little less bad and a great team marginally better, so as a player he hardly moves the needle.
Tim Dierkes
2:09
Our traffic won't be different if Harper gets $250MM, $300MM, or $350MM.  I don't have a dog in this race - I'm not getting a commission on his contract.  I think he's "worth" the numbers on the higher end, but if he doesn't get it it doesn't affect me.
As far as hardly moving the needle, that's just wrong.
Matt
2:09
Were you surprised that Jose Iglesias had to settle for a minor league deal?
Tim Dierkes
2:10
If you'd asked me in November, yes, but now, no.  It's weird...I get why teams don't want to pay $300MM to Harper/Machado if they don't have to, but I'd think there would be enough competition for an awesome-gloved SS to get him a roster spot.
Larry Baer
2:10
Does 6 years 216 work with an opt out after 4 for Bryce?
Tim Dierkes
2:11
Larry Baer being the CEO of the Giants.  No, I think that's a contract Bryce might settle for if there are simply no good $300MM+ offers.  And even then, I think he'd take it from the Dodgers.
Nick
2:11
Are the Dodgers being used as a last gasp negotiation tactic to get the Phillies to bid more?
Tim Dierkes
2:12
Maybe Boras sees it that way, but I don't think the Dodgers would bother at this stage if they didn't have any interest.  I assume they're trying to be creative and maybe sell him on doing something for 4-6 years with opt-outs.
Xabial II
2:12
So this offseasons FA market didnt screw top tier guys like Machado or Harper but instead screwed guys right under like Keuchel or Kimbrel
Tim Dierkes
2:13
We'll have to see what Keuchel and Kimbrel actually get.  Guys like Yasmani Grandal and Marwin Gonzalez got stung pretty badly though.
Nolan
2:14
Does arenado or Bryce Harper get the bigger contract/aav
Tim Dierkes
2:14
All logic says Harper, due to the age difference if nothing else.
Deep-Fried Beer
2:14
Where should I draft Posey this year? I usually reach for him and it turns out well for me but last year hurt me deep
Tim Dierkes
2:16
He's at 139.2 right now and I think that's good value.  Obviously keep an eye on how he looks when he starts playing in games.  Gary Sanchez and J.T. Realmuto are better in fantasy, but those guys will go in the 5-6th round as opposed to the 12th or whatever for Posey.
PG
2:16
It seems everyone other than PHI is interested in Harper but on a shorter term deal. If the Phils draw the line at 10/$300, does Harper explore something like 3/$110?
Tim Dierkes
2:16
I think if he decides to look short-term it's closer to 5/200, something like that.
J.Vandy
2:17
Why were the Yankees content in signing LaMahieu over Marwin Gonzalez?
Tim Dierkes
2:17
I like Marwin more.  But DJ signed over a month ago and at that time, maybe Marwin was stuck on a three-year deal.
Trip
2:17
How many of the remaining free agents will get a job?
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