JotCast | Live Chat With Tim Dierkes

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Tim Dierkes

2:19

The following players should get an MLB deal: Harper, Keuchel, Kimbrel, Gio Gonzalez, Maldonado, Adam Jones. It's fair to note that the Yovani Gallardos of the world had to wait and take minor league deals even when the free agent market was booming.

David

2:19

Keuchel to Cards. What say you??

Tim Dierkes

2:21

With Mikolas, Wacha, and Wainwright up for free agency after the season (and the latter two of questionable value anyway) and Carlos Martinez hurting, there's a reasonable case to be made for the Cards to offer Keuchel a reasonable three-year deal.

Hick$

2:21

Did I leave money out there or was the deal a steal in this market

Tim Dierkes

2:21

The Yankees essentially gave Hicks a six-year, $64MM deal covering his age 30-35 seasons. Conservatively, let's say he will provide 12 WAR from 2020-25. To pay $5.3MM/WAR is dirt cheap. The Padres just paid Machado at least $9.5MM/WAR. The Dodgers paid A.J. Pollock about $8MM/WAR. The Phillies paid McCutchen over $7MM/WAR. This extension is like getting a 30-40% discount even over the new, discounted free agent prices. Hicks basically gave the Yankees his 33-35 seasons for free.

B. L. Zebub

2:21

If Giants don't get Harper, who/what is Plan B?

Tim Dierkes

2:21

I don't think there is one, which speaks to how unique of a free agent Harper is.

Deep-Fried Beer

2:21

Should we believe in Donaldson having a good enough year to be drafted in the first 5 rounds?

Tim Dierkes

2:23

Oh, no...if you're looking for a 3B that early, take Suarez. Donaldson is like a 9th round type and you might be better off with Travis Shaw or equal with Wil Myers.

David

2:23

What do you see tronto doing this year with all the young talent?

Tim Dierkes

2:25

77 win team...pretty weak at middle infield and OF corners/DH and a pitching staff that looks highly questionable even if Stroman returns to form. It is fair to say that the Blue Jays are not trying too hard to win in 2019. Unless you're more excited about Matt Shoemaker and Clayton Richard than I am.

Draft

2:25

Do you think we will ever have an international draft?

Tim Dierkes

2:26

Yes, I think as the players' union continues to weaken, they might use teenagers who are not yet in the union as a bargaining chip.

Red Scare

2:26

Hi Tim, I love how MLBTR and especially Jeff are starting to move the FA narrative to where it correctly belongs - on the owners. That Nutting interview was shockingly insulting to all Pirates fans - can MLB reel in its owners and get them to spend or force them to sell if they simply are not interested in the on-field product and are only concerned with lining their pockets off the money made from the players?

Tim Dierkes

2:28

From the dawn of MLB until right now, the owners have always tried to tamp down player salaries. The players perhaps were short-sighted to allow for the luxury tax...I imagine Don Fehr knew it could be used as a de facto salary cap and that the owners wouldn't allow it to be a temporary thing.

2:29

If I'm the players, one thing I fight for is to move those luxury tax thresholds way the hell up. That way, we're just moving some numbers and not trying to completely change the system. The luxury tax used to be the George Steinbrenner tax, but now it is affecting many teams. The bar should probably be at like $240MM right now.

Mr. Cub

2:29

Do the Cubs try to get a legitimate relief pitcher or just try to catch lightning in a bottle or do nothing?

Tim Dierkes

2:30

Brach, Cedeno, Barnette, Tazawa, Kontos...this is pretty clearly the lightning in a bottle strategy.

Sauron

2:30

Do you think Bryce is watching this chat right now? Bryce? You in here?

Tim Dierkes

2:31

Is there at least one actual MLB player among the 1,117 people watching this chat right now?

Yes (28.6% | 311 votes)

No (40.6% | 441 votes)

Yes, but specifically only Bartolo Colon (30.8% | 335 votes)

Total Votes: 1,087

Johnny5Alive

2:32

Dodgers are interested, albeit in a short term deal - if that was the case, that he'd truly consider that, wouldn't, I don't know, 15 other teams be just as interested? I mean most of this posturing has to just be boras trying to up the philly offer, right? h'es not taking a 2 year 80million deal

Tim Dierkes

2:32

Exactly. Even the teams pretending to not have enough money would have to jump in. However, you have to consider where Bryce wants to be, and it's starting to sound like the West Coast. So the Dodgers have an advantage. You'd think the Angels would get in though.

HappyFunBall

2:33

When Harper inevitably signs with PHI, will it be the saddest 9-figure signing ceremony ever? Is he a good enough actor to fake like he's happy that no one else was willing to pay him?

Tim Dierkes

2:33

I feel like Harper won't rock the boat too much at his press conference, but Scott Boras will have about eight analogies lined up to explain this travesty.

McGuirk

2:33

Which team is in Better Shape, Rockies, Marlins or Padres?

Tim Dierkes

2:34

The Rockies and Padres are essentially a wash for the 2019 season for me, but the Padres are definitely set up better long-term.

STEVE

2:34

Sometimes you all ask what is something we would pay for, I would pay to see a transcript of all the questions you didn't post in these chats!

Tim Dierkes

2:35

If there's one thing I've learned it's that our readers don't want to pay for anything! But that's fine...if banner ads continues to work, then MLBTR will keep on keeping on. The unanswered questions are basically equal to the published ones. I just can only get to so many.

Ham

2:35

Would Jerry Dipoto be wise to call up one of the 2 finalists in the Harper derby that don't sign him and offer Haniger for a boatload of prospects?

Tim Dierkes

2:36

It'd be kind of rough PR for the Mariners to pull that move so close to the season starting. I feel like the pitch all winter has been "At least we still have Haniger! And Kikuchi is interesting!"

Future

2:36

In 4 years, will we look back thinking the AJ Pollack deal was good for the team or player?

Tim Dierkes

2:37

I think our reaction will simply be "meh" regarding the Pollock deal. Useful player, unlikely to reach 140 games in a season, but generally worth his contract.

Lazzaro Da Fietta

2:37

Knowing what we know today, what is Kershaw's ADP in a standard league?

Tim Dierkes

2:38

Kershaw is going 10th among SPs, around 34th overall. I'd feel safer just waiting a few rounds and grabbing Corbin.

Bryce

2:38

Or a paypal feature to let us pay to actually get our question answered ... for once.

Tim Dierkes

2:39

We did broach the idea of exclusive chats for subscribers. A lot of people said if such a thing existed, they'd simply leave MLBTR.

Hal

2:39

Going back to your comment on Hick's contract, if WAR is the the metric to value FA contracts, then wouldn't the only difference be how teams value the price per WAR?

Tim Dierkes

2:40

Each team should have it's own $/WAR they are willing to spend based on various factors, but it also matters what you project to get out of the player. I said Hicks maybe gives 12 WAR over the six free agent years of the deal, but perhaps the Yankees' numbers show 10 or 15 and that would definitely change the offer.

Alan

2:40

Tim, about luxury taxes, player contracts and all that, do you agree that the market spiked earlier on this decade (Pujols, Canó, Votto, Cabrera etc) and the owners/GMs are trying to make a course correction or is it more like they're tring to really undervalue top players and stuff their pockets?

Tim Dierkes

2:42

I think it is easier than ever to be a profitable baseball team regardless of winning, and so there are fewer teams going for broke trying to bid on the best players. Vintage George Steinbrenner/Illitch would be all over Harper/Machado and likely win one of them, but we don't have much of that anymore.

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