JotCast | Live Chat With Tim Dierkes

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Rog

2:43

Who do you like best for this year alone out of - Robbie Ray, Kyle Freeland, Luis Castillo, Josh James

Tim Dierkes

2:43

My pick would be Luis Castillo.

Brian

2:44

Regarding the luxurry tax... there has to be something in place to try to keep some competitive balance. When the Rockies tv contract pays them 20 mil/year and the Dodgers tv contract pays them 15x that, there has to be something like a cap/luxury tax in place. Otherwise NY, Chi, LA, etc will just buy every good player and fans will leave.

Tim Dierkes

2:44

You're basically arguing that MLB lacks competitive balance, which is what Bud Selig pushed for so many years despite teams of all kinds of market sizes popping up and succeeding.

BOB in MD

2:44

Do the O’s have any players on its 25 man roster that have potential 1 WAR value or more?

Tim Dierkes

2:46

They have several of those, but actually seem to have zero projected 2 WAR players. I guess if I had to pick a 2 WAR guy it'd be Dylan Bundy.

tad2b13

2:46

MLBTR is too good to leave over chats for subscribers only. As a retiree on a fixed income, I wouldn't pay, so I think the threat to leave is a bluff.

Tim Dierkes

2:47

Thanks, but I'm not sure it's worth finding out. To be clear, the idea was to keep the current free chats, but also hold a few additional for paid subscribers. I do appreciate the point that people pay to subscribe to lots of stuff these days and for some of our readers we are not essential enough to join that group.

2:47

How much would it help a team to have an Albert Pujols in their team (future HoF), but with such a terribly contract. Do they sell more tickets, jerseys, higher than ratings because of him or does he not make a difference anymore?

Tim Dierkes

2:49

I think he does not make a difference anymore in that regard. But they do have Albert for three more years, so if he pushes into that 700 career HR range I think he'll start to sell tickets again. It might be fun to see if he could get to 700 or 715 before he's done, even if it's a bit of a death march.

2:49

If LAD sign Bryce, who is most likely traded: Bellinger, Muncy or Pederson?

Tim Dierkes

2:50

I think Pederson, but knowing them they might try to make it all work.

Alan

2:50

So, instead of complaining about our teams not making efforts to sign top players, should we the fans try complaining about ticket prices, concessions, and MLB.tv prices?

Tim Dierkes

2:50

If you are fed up with your team, the only complaint that will register is not spending any money on them.

Padres

2:51

Is keeping Myers on his 4/72 ($18mil yr avg)contract a better investment than Bryce at 10/330? I think Myers will be a 3-4 WAR player, and Bryce has been barely that.

Tim Dierkes

2:52

I think Myers is a 2 WAR guy, and Harper is a 5 WAR guy. Plus, Myers' deal was backloaded such that he'll earn $20MM/year from 2020-22. Oof.

Big D

2:52

Why would you pay a player anything over 25 million once he's past 35? Most players break down and decline well before then. I think realizing that, as a player, would help with negotiating longterm contracts.

Tim Dierkes

2:54

I say this a lot but those painful back ends of contracts were the cost of doing business, with the idea being that the guy could easily be worth $40MM/year or something in the first few years of the deal, which is what you're really after. Take Bryce. 5 WAR player, Machado just signed for $9.5MM/WAR. To pay Bryce close to $50MM just for 2019 would be a reasonable investment for a team not flirting with the luxury tax. So when we talk about a 10/300 deal or whatever, the team would get surplus value on the front end. Furthermore, Bryce is abnormally young, mitigating the effect of those final years.

George Steinbrenner

2:54

I would he signed Harper, Machado, Keuchel, and Kimbrel, right?

Tim Dierkes

2:55

I don't think he would have signed all four, but he probably would have harangued his GM about all of them. If nothing else it was more fun than the pragmatic front offices of today.

Price

2:55

One of the ideas being thrown around this year is penalizing tanking teams by dropping their draft picks. Am I crazy for thinking this is just a terrible idea? To punish teams just for being bad? Or can you perhaps explain better why this is or is not a good idea?

Tim Dierkes

2:56

I think it's a good idea. The flip side of punishing badness or rewarding teams for trying. I like the idea that 85 wins and missing the playoffs could be something MLB rewards. If MLB was all about competitive balance with the draft, they could remove slotting or drastically increase the slot values, so that the Pirates or Royals could invest huge in the draft. Of course, they ain't goin' back to those days. They've left few paths for teams to build sustainable winners other than losing a lot for several years.

Jimmy

2:56

Any reason to believe Josh Bell still has some untapped potential or has he proven he's a .270ish average 12-15 homer type of player?

Tim Dierkes

2:57

I definitely see breakout potential in Bell. He's only 26 and has the skills for a .360 OBP, 30 HR.

Von Purple Hayes

2:57

The Phillies had a solid offseason even without Harper, but do you think Middleton's "stupid money" comments are going to haunt him if they don't land Harper?

Tim Dierkes

2:58

Yes, but only in the short-term and only for the diehard fans who listen to sports radio and are fully aware of those comments. I think most fans simply want to see a winner, and don't care whether that involves Bryce or not.

Arte Moreno

2:58

So you don't believe I am in on Harper?

Tim Dierkes

2:58

Arte Moreno, Angels owner...there's no reason to think he's in on Harper.

Matt K

2:58

Tim, all this luxury tax and special interest talk is making my head spin... who will win the World Series this year?

Tim Dierkes

2:59

I thought about this for about 30 seconds. Gimme the Astros.

Tim Dierkes the 2nd

2:59

Does everyone currently in this chat want to toss in some money and buy one of the teams? I feel like it wouldn't take that much to pry the Marlins away from Jeter.

Tim Dierkes

3:00

If each one of you chips in about $833,000, I think we can do it.

Cogito

3:00

How do you incentivise winning without making the league top-heavy? It seems like if the almost-ins get the top draft picks and turn into playoff teams, forcing a few of last year's playoff teams to become this year's almost-ins, it's a cycle that leaves little hope for the bottom.

Tim Dierkes

3:01

Well, getting the top draft picks doesn't turn a team until a playoff team, since there's a 3-5 year lag between a draft pick and an MLB impact. Bad teams trying to get better might have to spend some money in free agency.

Joe

3:01

As long as free chats continued at 2-3 per week, I can't see the existence of separate subscriber-only chats having any impact on normal MLBTR readers. That's pretty much business as usual for the internet nowadays (with Patreon, etc.)... don't know that I'd pay for them, but certainly wouldn't begrudge you doing them!

Tim Dierkes

3:02

I appreciate that. It's an idea to kick around. Not sure what the interest is. We might start with a simple "pay to remove ads" option and see where it goes.

TwinsVet

3:02

Please never let Steve Adams leave. He is a national treasure.

PATigersFan

3:02

what say you -- Scott Boras should be the head of the players association for the next CBA....

Tim Dierkes

3:03

Haha...you just found a way to make baseball fans dislike Scott Boras more than they already do.

3:04

That said...the reason people like Marvin Miller and Don Fehr succeeded, I think, is because they did not care what the public thought of them and fought tirelessly for the players. And maaaaan would the owners hate Boras getting that post.

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