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Tim Dierkes
2:19
You have to consider how insane it is for a player to  have 64.9 WAR through his age 26 season.  Aaron Judge literally has 13 WAR through his age 26 season.  Born about eight months apart, Judge has accomplished 20% of what Trout did through age 26.
Enrique Martinez
2:19
Now that spring training is almost over and have seen where free agent players have landed. Can you tell me your prediction on NL and AL wild card picks please?
Tim Dierkes
2:21
If we go Yankees/Red Sox, Indians, Astros for the AL division winners plus first wild card, that leaves the following second WC contenders in my mind: Rays, Twins, A's, Angels.  It's honestly hard to see how the discussion could include any other teams.
2:22
I guess you want to pin me down on a pick...umm...gimme the Twins I guess.
2:23
I think the Dodgers are the strong NL West favorite.  Might as well put the Cubs and Nats in, even though it's not nearly as clear-cut as in the AL.  I'll give the Phillies a spot, because they are pretty good now and would likely get reinforcements as needed in July.
Then it's Mets, Braves, Cards, Brewers as the top second WC contenders for me.  I guess I'll take the Mets.
charlestonchew
2:24
But the 3-batter rule might actually mean *more* pitching changes, unless you're willing to let guys go for 4-5 outs, you are guaranteeing that mid-inning pitching changes happen in every subsequent inning. Typically, relievers will start innings anyway (so this creates a challenge). People could adjust, but I just don't see how this saves time, really.
Tim Dierkes
2:25
That's a fair point, but I think it's a net reduction in pitching changes.  It's possible it doesn't really move the needle, but also isn't bad.  The auto-intentional walk is fine by me, even if it only trims a few seconds off a game.
Xyrak
2:25
Is it utter insanity that Gio is essentially settling for a try-out right now?
Tim Dierkes
2:26
I think he's pretty much got the MLB roster spot, and it's him agreeing to give the Yankees the maximum amount of time before putting him on.
Todd
2:26
When will inflation stop with baseball's salaries?
Tim Dierkes
2:26
2017
Sala
2:26
How could anyone think Trout isn’t worth what he got? It’s a bargain if anything. He’s basically Mickey Mantle
Tim Dierkes
2:28
Speaking of which, there are a good number of scenarios where Trout doesn't age all that great (and provides less than, say, 50 WAR from age 29-38).  If Trout ages like Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Mike Schmidt, Ty Cobb, or Stan Musial, we'll say the Angels got a bargain.  If he ages like Andruw Jones, Ken Griffey Jr., Albert Pujols, Jimmie Foxx, or Miguel Cabrera, we'll say this didn't work out for the Angels.
2:29
In fact, look at the Mick.  Like Trout, he was the extremely rare player with 60+ WAR through age 26.  But Mantle only provided 37.4 from age 29-38, which would not be good if matched by Trout.  The one player I found who was both Trout's equal through age 26, and also killed it from age 29-38, is Ty Cobb.
Grayson
2:30
Despite what people say, it is teams like the Rays and Athletics that ruin free agency. Granted they don’t have the financial power like the Yankees but they can certainly carry a team with a higher payroll than $40 million
Tim Dierkes
2:31
Well, who is free agency ruined for right now?  The fans?  For the fans, it's mostly just dragged out, but I haven't met a fan who was pissed that Gio Gonzalez got a minor league deal potentially worth $3MM, rather than a two-year, $20MM deal.
So, you are the rare person who might be annoyed baseball players don't make more money.  The fact is that most people think they're already overpaid.
patigersfan
2:31
Looks like Voit wins the job in NY... could Bird be had at a reasonable cost in trade?  Detroit could sure use him...
Tim Dierkes
2:32
Bird has minor league options remaining, and we know the team's brass used to love him, so I think they'd send him to Triple-A rather than trading him at a discount.  If Voit starts the season off strong and Bird is also looking good and healthy in Triple-A, then I think he becomes prime trade bait.
Astroworld
2:33
Will there be more pressure for the Astros to pony up and bring back Verlander and Cole next offseason?  Have to imagine the Angels will be spending more money soon and will make the division more competitive.
Tim Dierkes
2:34
More pressure from Astros fans?  This seems like a front office that's just going to do what it wants, regardless of what their fans might want.  Whether it's letting Morton and Keuchel walk without putting up much effort to bring them back, or trading for Osuna, they just do what they think is best.  So if they like the numbers on Verlander or Cole (not both), then I could see one returning.
jgu71
2:35
My feelings are the Reds should sign Keuchel, I'm thinking his price tag can't be at the same level it was at the beginning of the FA season...would 3 or 4 yes at $18 million get it done...I'm thinking this move helps tremendously not just this year but afterwards as Wood and Roark will be F/A...what's your take
Tim Dierkes
2:35
I do think three years at $18MM apiece would get it done, but the Reds' rotation is full at present and I would not sign Dallas with 2020 too much in mind.  So I don't see it as a great fit.
Brandon
2:35
Angels could have 9 Mike Trouts, they will never win if they continue to ignore their starting pitching.
Tim Dierkes
2:36
Actually that is probably the one way a team could win while ignoring their starting pitching, to get like 80 WAR out of nine position players.
Nick
2:37
Why is Kimbrel not on the Rays right now? Signing him still puts the payroll below 2016-2017 levels and players not named Snell are still 2-3 years from arb, during which time Morton will come off the books.
Tim Dierkes
2:37
Kimbrel is a good fit there, but he'd improve almost any contending team.
Danimal
2:37
don't forget that Albert Pujols in the first 8 years of his career was Mike Trout before Mike Trout was old enough to legally drink.  Albert was also more durable in his first 8 years and produced better offensive numbers (better slash, better homers, better RBIs, more runs, more homers, etc.).  If Pujols signed a mega deal extension like this when he was 27 that deal would look terrible right now.  The same will happen for Trout.  If you think it won't, then you are being unrealistic.
Tim Dierkes
2:38
Pujols through age 26: 45.7 WAR.  Trout through age 26: 64.9 WAR.  So Trout has actually been much better than Pujols was through this stage of his career.
2:39
But yeah, the worst thing would be for Trout to go the way of Ken Griffey Jr., a top comp of his.  I found enough comps like that that I started to come around to the idea that the Angels can only bank on 40-45 WAR from Trout during this deal, and therefore the deal is not a huge bargain but rather right in line with Arenado's.
Colby
2:40
Now that you mentioned Lindor-Any chance at all the Indians can sign him to an extension to buy out 1 FA year?  Can you throw out a best guess at his free agent contract in 3 years?
Tim Dierkes
2:40
No, Lindor seems pretty clearly headed to free agency.  But if the Indians were to get him to stay, it wouldn't involve buying one FA year, because that has immense value.
2:42
A new Lindor deal would start with his age 28 season.  So I'm thinking 8-10 years at an AAV of at least $30MM.  Discussions start at 8/240.  But he's three years from FA, so a lot remains to be seen.
Rusty Greer Extravaganza
2:42
If Pujols is injury ridden/subpar performer again this year, odds of him permanently benched? Odds of walking away from the contract due to phantom “injury”?
Tim Dierkes
2:45
I think Pujols is a semi-regular for most of the year, with the team hoping he can get the 28 HR he needs to pass Willie Mays.  I think he gets there, but even at that point there's a long road to 700 if you're 39 years old.  I guess I could see something where after the 2020 season, if these next two go pretty badly but he at least passes Mays, the Angels and Pujols work out some kind of settlement for him to retire a year early.
Danimal
2:45
Saying Trout produces much more than $36 million/year in value is naive.  It's naive because you have no proof that anyone would pay "much more" than $36 million a year for his services.  You can't back into a valuation for $/WAR and then apply it to a free agent market because the market isn't perfect.  Therefore your War/$ values are all hindsight values not forward looking values.  Finally, not every team would even be able to bid at those numbers and without competition (see Harper, Bryce or Machado, Manny) the total price is way less than your War/$ numbers would ever suggest (see, e.g, your wildly overstated estimates of what Machado and Harper would get in Free agency)
Tim Dierkes
2:47
Aren't we all beginning this discussion with the understanding that I don't have "proof" of what teams would pay on the open market for Mike Trout two years from now?  Your argument is basically, "You're speculating, and speculation isn't always right."  Yes Danimal...we know that.  This is MLB Trade Rumors...we basically exist to speculate about stuff like this.
2:48
There is a lot that happens that people don't see coming.  That's what keeps it interesting.
Franch Friar
2:49
If Paddack starts the year in the rotation, do you think he still gets sent down later in the year to manipulate his service time?
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