JotCast | Live Chat With Tim Dierkes

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KIMBREL

2:08

Would he take 1 year money at a high AAV and be ok with not closing? (Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, exc)

Tim Dierkes

2:08

I don't think Kimbrel can afford to be picky about whether he closes this year.

Adam

2:09

Joe Kelly thoughts? The Dodgers bullpen has at times been a complete dumpster fire, and he has been one of the main culprits. However, his track record speaks for itself. Is he suffering from “huge contract pressure” symptoms?

Tim Dierkes

2:11

It's been awful for Kelly, but as an example look at July 13-24 for him last year. 11 baserunners and 8 ER in 2.3 innings spread out over four appearances. Most players go through rough stretches. His velo is down a touch, but I have not compared April to April for him. Barring any health issue I think he'll be fine.

Over Reactor

2:11

Lots of fans hitting the panic button too early on their teams?

Tim Dierkes

2:12

What does it mean for a fan to hit the panic button? Stop watching? Some of the more extreme starts have had a serious impact on some teams' playoff chances, for instance the Cubs.

Mariner Fanatic

2:12

At what record do you take these guys seriously? 50 games in or more?

Tim Dierkes

2:13

I'm already taking them seriously. My subjective bar for contender/non-contender is a 10% shot at the playoffs, and it looks like you guys agree that the Mariners do have that right now. Obviously this is not an 8 run per game offense, but on an individual level I can see it being a strong one. Sustainable: what Mallex Smith, Mitch Haniger, Omar Narvaez, and Dee Gordon have done thus far.

2:14

Unsustainable performances but still capable of being at least 15% better than league average: Domingo Santana, Jay Bruce, EE, Vogelbach. And if you want to make a case for 10% better than league average for Tim Beckham or Ryon Healy, I wouldn't argue.

2:16

Led by EE, who we know is capable of anchoring an offense, this could be a deep lineup with few easy outs. However, it is difficult to see their current pitching staff as a playoff-caliber one. Trader Jerry could make a couple big trades and suddenly everyone would have to take them seriously.

fergie23

2:16

If the Cubs are not in contention in July, would everyone be available other than say Rizzo, Baez, Hendricks?

Tim Dierkes

2:18

I think the Cubs would need to be, I dunno, at least 8 games out for them to look a one-summer selloff. I'd imagine Bryant and Contreras would also be off the table, and their terrible contracts would remain immovable. Guys like Hamels and Zobrist could bring back a few decent pieces, but they don't really have contract year type players that would result in a big score like the Yankees got with Gleyber Torres/Chapman.

Keuchel

2:19

Doubtful any of the injuries of the past 24ish hours changes things for me, correct?

Tim Dierkes

2:19

I don't see the Indians getting involved, but I guess the Yankees' interest may have increased slightly.

Andrew

2:19

Why hasn't a AJ Ramos been signed?

Tim Dierkes

2:20

I'm hoping to get some kind of update on his health status. I think he had labrum surgery last summer and I haven't heard anything lately. I imagine that's why he's unsigned.

Reds Fan

2:20

I was expecting better than this? Time to blow it up and deal attractive pieces?

Tim Dierkes

2:22

The offense has been anemic, and Gennett's absence doesn't help. Just about everybody should be much better moving forward - Votto, Puig, Peraza, Suarez, Winker. Plus, Senzel will be up at some point. The problem is that these guys had little margin for error going in, so a 1-8 start makes them look like a 75 win team that should be selling many rental players come June or July.

Service time

2:23

If the Padres start tanking in mid-late season... can't they still send Paddack and Tatis Jr. down to manipulate service time? It'd look bad, but doesn't holding them down look just as bad?

Tim Dierkes

2:23

That would be even worse than if they had held them down to start the season, which is at least what everyone else does. The Padres made a conscious decision to go for it and I can't see them sending either of those two down unless it's merit-based.

Orioles

2:23

The Orioles actually don't have any choice with Chris Davis, right? Nobody will take him on, too expensive to bench him...minor leagues?

Tim Dierkes

2:26

I hate to pile on the guy, but what's happening now is just bad for all involved. The dude is owed more than $90MM (though some is deferred) through 2022. I can't recall a team eating $90MM. Getting him to agree to some time at Triple-A would be an option for sure.

Contender

2:26

Of the 8 teams you listed, what chance do you give at least one team making a run at it? I would say Tigers or Rangers might still contend.

Tim Dierkes

2:26

I'll say a 5% chance that one of those teams could make the playoffs.

Contender

2:27

If Tigers were to get Kimbrel or Keuchel in conjunction with a good start are you changing your tune?

Tim Dierkes

2:28

No...we could spot them five extra wins and they still wouldn't look like a .500 team. It's not that I don't want them to contend - that would be amazing - but I just can't see it.

Orioles=62 Mets

2:28

How beneficial is it for Keuchel and Kimbrel to hold out for the entire season?

Tim Dierkes

2:29

I think overall it's a detriment for both of them. The loss of draft pick compensation is a real benefit, but in general when a player takes a year off for any reason, teams aren't clamoring to give him multiyear deals at $15MM+ per.

ForLoveoftheGame

2:29

How much time on the IL (meniscus injury) will it take to diminish Matt Moore's trade value despite his strong start and team-friendly $2.5 mill. salary?

Tim Dierkes

2:31

Those 10 innings were interesting, because you know the talent's there (although it was against weak opponents). Even one month of healthy pitching prior to the deadline, if Moore shows he's something around his 2016 self, would make him a popular trade target. Low salary helps too.

Kris Bryant

2:31

If we start to swoon early how vulnerable am I to a trade? With my remaining team control the Cubs could get a King’s ransom?

Tim Dierkes

2:31

Yes, but with a team that has no choice but to try to win in 2020, what could you trade Bryant for that would make sense?

2:32

I grew up in Glen Ellyn, and am headed back to town this weekend to visit the folks. Any new restaurant suggestions? We usually go to Parkers', but I want to expand the list.

Tim Dierkes

2:32

Nobel House!

Tom C

2:32

What would happen if Chris Davis faced Trevor Rosenthal, right now?

Tim Dierkes

2:32

I feel like he'd reach first base on a dropped third strike.

Gladiator

2:33

Sale seemed to have arm issues with CWS...?... nothing changed

Tim Dierkes

2:33

Kind of seemed that way, but he didn't...averaged 203 innings over a five-year span.

NICE, GARY!!

2:33

Is Daniel Vogelbach a first-ballot Hall of Famer?

Tim Dierkes

2:33

How about a little ROY consideration??? He'd need to take over the full-time 1B job first.

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