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Live Chat With Tim Dierkes
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Tim Dierkes
2:32
Well, the Yankees, Indians, and Astros all still look good for the playoffs.  And really the Nats, Cubs, and Dodgers are kind of finding their level where we might have expected in the preseason as well.  So far surprise-wise we've basically seen the Rays take a lot of the Red Sox playoff share.
Travis
2:32
Is there some organizational philosophy with the Cubs that makes pitchers lose the strike zone?   It is uncanny the utter lack of any arms they can develop on their own.
Tim Dierkes
2:33
It really is damning how the Epstein regime has been completely unable to draft and develop pitching and some of the control problems their guys have exhibited.  I don't think anyone is going to run him out of town over it though.
Milo
2:34
Speaking of the Angels, why not sign Dallas Keuchel?
Tim Dierkes
2:35
Well, they're sitting on a 5.4% chance at the playoffs and they'd have to give up the #55 pick in the draft (plus a good amount of money) to add a mid-rotation guy who probably won't be ramped up until June, at which point they might be virtually out of contention.
Medic Mike
2:35
Almost a month into the season anything stand out as the biggest surprise to you?
Tim Dierkes
2:38
On the individual level, guys like Hunter Dozier, Christian Walker, Alex Gordon, Jason Heyward are some examples of things I would not have predicted in any way, shape, or form.  Plus the Red Sox of course.  Also Jose Ramirez starting so poorly.
Kevin
2:38
You surprised with the play in the NL Central?  Standings about what you would have thought?
Tim Dierkes
2:39
Actually yes, it's lining up mostly to expectations.  I thought maybe the Reds and Pirates were a bit better than this, but for them to be 77 win teams was never crazy.
Brian
2:39
D.Voglebach, am I for real ? +/- 500 AB's ?
Tim Dierkes
2:39
I think he's a legit 120 wRC+ type hitter from here on out.
Andy
2:39
RE: Sale.  His velocity is down substantially, he's refusing to even acknowledge the possibility of injury.  Are he and the BoSox ignoring the signs that are universally acknowledged as predictors of injury for the sake of hope?  If he blows up his elbow, we'll all say they should have seen it coming.
Tim Dierkes
2:41
April 2019 Sale was at 92.61 mph, April last year 93.36.  3/4 of one MPH does matter, but I wouldn't say his velo is down substantially.  I'd also think that if he was truly injured, there wouldn't be a conspiracy about it.
OakTown Gawd
2:41
How do you rate the Khris Davis extension? Will Khrush ever get the respect he deserves.. salute!
Tim Dierkes
2:42
It is an example of a player taking a bit of a discount to stay where he wants to be.  But when a guy doesn't play the field and hits a lot of bombs but doesn't walk a ton, that puts a cap on his value.  So I think he's respected about as much as he should be.
Moonarc
2:42
What about Victor Robles? He should be in the top 3 for ROY?
Tim Dierkes
2:44
Of Alonso, Walker, Tatis Jr., and Paddack, who would you bump for Robles?  My picks were based on what players had done so far, not a prediction.  Robles has been a great fantasy pick but he's not an amazing real life hitter right now.  A decent one though.
Boog Clemente
2:44
In 2018 MLB had its worst attendance since 2003. Do you think that teams not going all out to win is a major factor why?
Tim Dierkes
2:45
Here's a related article I wrote:
2:46
I felt that when the season began, 70% of teams had a shot at the playoffs.  I think that's still true today, if a shot at the playoffs is like a 10% chance.  It'd be nice to see less rebuilding, but I think there are myriad reasons why attendance is down.
2:47
One reason is that the experience for an MLB fan to watch the game at home is cheap, whereas going to a game costs tons of money, sometimes you have to sit a mile away from the action, sometimes it's crappy weather, often the commute and parking suck, etc.  There are just so many reasons for even a baseball fan to decide not to attend a game.
Sol
2:48
Seems Punk Harper's cooled down in Philly, and you ain't typed a mumblin' word T.D. Don't think .250-.400-.510 is going to make the Phils a winner or Punk Harper worth $30 million a year.
Tim Dierkes
2:49
Wow, someone has a chip on his shoulder about this.  For me, when a player plays right around expectations, that's not really a hot topic for chats.  I guess your argument is that Bryce should have, like two additional HR right now to justify his contract?
Travis
2:49
Why does baseball have revenue sharing?   I get sharing national TV contracts, and the visiting team getting a % of the gate, but why should any team be penalized for putting a better product on the field and selling more tickets, merch, getting a better TV deal, etc?
Tim Dierkes
2:50
The owners in the smaller markets banded together and forced that issue.  I think it was mostly Steinbrenner-based, when the revenue/payroll gap was looking huge, and a free-spending owner in a large market seemed to have such a massive advantage over a team like the Padres or Pirates.
2:51
I think some revenue sharing is justified, simply because Milwaukee will never have access to as many fans as NYC.  There is an inherent lopsided situation that has nothing to do with the Yankees' business savvy.
Paul
2:52
Another Live Chat where Mr Dierkes focuses exclusively on 3-4 major market teams. Shocking..
Tim Dierkes
2:52
I get how some people say this about the various major media conglomerates, but to say it about MLBTR suggests you're just not paying attention.
Wild Card
2:52
Of the 15 teams with less than 16 percent chance of making the playoffs, which team would have the best shot?  Pirates maybe.
Tim Dierkes
2:53
D'Backs or A's, I guess.  A 15% shot at the playoffs isn't too bad and these things can change a lot with a winning streak.
Cubs Season Ticket Holder
2:53
I sat thirty feet from Theo and Jed a handful of years back and quote "we will acquire pitching".    Acquiring and developing are the same thing---and in many cases, as plain as day---acquiring is better.
Tim Dierkes
2:54
They're not mutually exclusive though.  You can trade for Cole Hamels and Jose Quintana, sign Lester, etc, while also making at least the occasional pitching draft pick that impacts the Major League team.  Theo has seven drafts in the books now and no pitching to show for it.  I'm sure someone can run the numbers on how that stacks up to other teams.
What PR Backlash
2:55
How much PR backlash to you REALLY think Addison Russell is going to bring to the Cubs that isn't already there?   So what, he gets booed like Ryan Braun does.   So it's a little louder the first time through each city.....this is old news.  If he's a better player on the roster than Mark Zagunis, he's going to be there.
Tim Dierkes
2:56
I don't honestly know and that's a good point.  For the past few days I've mostly gotten my Russell opinions from Twitter, which is very different from going to Wrigley or a bar and asking around.  I suspect most Cubs fans side with you - if he helps the team a bit, keep him, and that's it.
Dark
2:56
Market size complaints are so bothersome. Every team's fans seem to want to use it to justify that us fans of larger market teams cant have a valid opinion about their teams. I think revenue sharing is a fine idea, but i don't like the comp picks idea.
Tim Dierkes
2:56
I think the compensation picks are bad in that they are not serving their supposed purpose.  They're just a tax paid on free agency.
Sol
2:57
One of us reads like Punk Harper's Personal Water Boy, T.D., and it ain't me. Phils paid for Punk Harper of .460-.649-1.109 of 2015 or .413-.595-1.008 of '17, and they're getting below career averages in batting and slugging and slightly above career averages in on-base and OPS. In short, D.C. Failure just became Philly Failure. Carry that Punk Bucket, Water Boy.
Tim Dierkes
2:57
Sorry, just had to publish that for everyone to see how dumb it is.
Cardinal
2:57
Ozuna four years 75 million extension seem reasonable
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