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Longenhagen and McDaniel Prospect Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:00
Good morning from Tempe
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:01
And good early afternoon from Orlando!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
This will likely be Kiley's regular chat spot moving forward but we're both here today as I missed my spot yesterday to see Luis Robert and others.
Let's get to it...
THE Average Sports Fan
12:02
If the Reds deal Hamilton, who benefits more: Winker or Ervin?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
I suppose Ervin because it means he gets more of an opportunity with Hamilton gone and it looks like Winker is already going to have a significant role, even with Hamilton there. But Winker is the better prospect and I don't think it's very close.
Ethan
12:04
Thoughts on players the Pirates got in the McCutchen/Cole trades?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:04
Hey I recently wrote about that in some detail. Here's that article: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-pirates-are-forced-to-value-pl...
12:05
Short version: lower end starter types and role players that are close or are MLB ready, Musgrove has a chance to be a mid-rotation guy. PIT seems to be shooting for 2019/2020 contention.
Q-Ball
12:05
It seems like IFA money doesn't change hands for much when it's traded.  Do you feel it's undervalued, or am I over valuing it?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
I think it's important to remember that that isn't real money being moved around, it's just the opportunity to spend more money on the IFA market. Also I think we're still seeing the value of those slots develop under the new CBA and that there are several external factors that impact leverage.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:08
and the timing in the signing year/if there's a big name still out there/who is in the penalty also matters, so not all IFA money deals are the same
i.e. wouldn't shock me if analysis showed the pre-Ohtani deals paid a slightly higher price
leprekhan
12:08
Hey Kiley and Eric....thanks for doing this again. Who is a prospect in the Braves system that is currently under the radar that could make a big jump in 2018? Is Jean Carlos Encarnacion a potential option there?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:09
I'm currently working on the Braves list and JCE is actually the guy I may be most high on that doesn't seem to get much hype (well, one of the two). Dude has thunder in those hands and can play in the dirt. I believe he signed for $10k, as well.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
And William Contreras and Cristian Pache are guys who could take a leap into top 100 lists
Josh Nelson
12:10
Saw your tweet from the White Sox hitters camp. Who impresses you the most from that group?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
It was Robert and it wasn't close. Hit balls out to all fields during BP, more raw pop than anyone else taking BP on that field including Burger and Sheets
Another Dan
12:11
Eric...and Kiley...together in one chat room?!? So! Many! Questions!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:11
Well we were in the same room talking prospects like a week ago but now we're back on opposite coasts
Frank
12:11
% chance that Gohara is the braves best starter by the end of next season?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:12
A real chance. I think an underrated ability he has is to spot his slider to both sides of the plate and it's more vertical than horizontal. Those two elements means he could be the rare guy that could succeed vs. RHH and LHH with just two pitches, though his changeup is fringy to average so he doesn't have to
Jimmy Ballgame
12:13
Tanner Houck a fast mover? Starter or BP?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
Probably not moving quickly unless he's moved to the bullpen. Most scouts I talked to before the draft thought that was ultimately where he'd end up, but I give him a better shot to stay there than most. Even if you think that there's value in trying him as a starter for a while just to see if it works out, and it allow Houck to accrue more innings/reps to improve than he would out of 'pen..
Kevin Mick Latchy
12:15
Anything that should cheer up us Pirate fans?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:15
It's a little midleading, but I did just tweet this
Erix
12:16
For Kiley: Are you the man who has a grip on what to think of Danny Jansen's 2017?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:16
You know how someone would want to name their kid something then they meet a terrible person with that same name and it changes everything? Cistulli/Jansen. UGH.
Ben
12:17
Any update on a couple of Brewers pitchers who didn't make your write-up; Nate Kirby (injury issues) and Nash Walters (control, injury too)? beyond hope at this point?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
Both of those guys are at a point where they need to re-prove that they're prospects. Especially Walters. Kirby threw this fall during instructs at least.
Juan
12:18
As prospect writers, how precious do you think prospects are? Which is to say, if you were GMs, how willing would you be to trade big time prospects? On a scale from Dombrowski to Luhnow.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:19
Increasingly, I find that clubs have sophisticated ways to look at this to where the margins are getting smaller and smaller in terms of gaps in evaluation. I think I would lean toward being zig-zag when it's close to being close in terms of value. There's also lots of value to ignoring the actual valuation of the prospects and if you're rebuilding, borderline badger the teams that are going for it until you find a match. That's obviously much easier to line up.
12:20
And this answer touches on some topics I referenced in my first article: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-status-of-the-scouts-vs-stats-deba...
and by zig-zag I mean go a little counter to what the industry seems to be leaning toward at the moment, as that could create some value.
Deb
12:21
So is there something going on in the Yankee system? They've been able to take fringey guys like Chance Adams and J. Montgomery (among others) and turn them into legit prospects. Have you heard anything different about their process, or has it just been recent luck?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
Juan, I think your approach to both the quantity of prospects you hold/acquire and the type of prospects you hold/acquire depends on where you are in the competitive cycle.  Because we're not subject to those incentives and others (like job security if a team isn't competitive shortly) we try to do it in more of a vacuum.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:22
Don't want to put what I know about the NYY process on blast, but they are looking at a lot of the more sophisticated measures from trackman to biomechanical to medical, etc. Lots of teams do that too but I think they get a rare level of buy-in across the board from their staff. Credit to Cash and Damon.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
I agree and would note they've altered arm slots and improved arm actions of guys like Montgomery.
Zonk
12:22
What sleepers do you like in the Cub system?
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