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Mar10_2025 BHQ Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:34
Beck has had a good spring and like him as under-the-radar possibility. Have no idea on what scale (my guess is $26.00?) .70 is, but doesn't seem like a crazy price to me. Could be wrong, but I'm not worried about Bouchard when I'm considering whether to keep Beck or not.
AL only
12:34
Alvarez 33 Gunnar 18 Kirby 16 Lewis 12 Duran 13 Westburg 11 Jobe 6 $5 annual inflation, can keep forever, have to cut one. Who would not be?
Brent Hershey
12:34
Would come down to the longer-term injury risks, I'd think ... so probably Lewis first, then Alvarez (also b/c of the cost here). Would do that hoping Alvarez can stay on the field in 2025.
Giuseppe
12:35
putting together a draft plan for a 5x5 mix 12 team h2h categories redraft league. Strongly gravitating towards breaking my usual risk-averse team building strategy and targeting as many high ceiling players as possible (jrod/carroll/jazz/abrams/chourio/ wood/etc). Given the weekly sample sizes does the high variance of these profiles become less or more worrisome when planning a team build? Gut feeling says that even on the down weeks where these profiles are struggling, i would be maintaining an edge in steals and backfilling with cheap power in the later rounds. Who needs avg in a weekly h2h league anyway??
Brent Hershey
12:35
Yeah, I think this is a solid plan. The more high-upside guys you get, in theory the less likely that they ALL go cold at the same time.
Peter
12:38
Thanks, Brent--2B is soooo thin. Who do you see as the "safest" bets? Do you see any upside to T Estrada? PT concerns? Thoughts on J Holliday? He never had much in counting stats in the minors. Where is the hype? Am I missing something?
Brent Hershey
12:38
Depends on your league size, but I think there's some good shots to take at 2B late.... Estrada and Holliday among them. Estrada has PT locked down in COL; Holliday was a top-scale prospect for a reason. Yep, looked awful in 2024, but my faith is still there. Running this spring; think the pop will come. Safer bets might include the likes of India, Donovan and Gleyber.
NFC ADP
12:40
Hi Brent, thank you for taking my question. Regarding the use of NFC ADP’s: since I want to see the most recent trend with the most up-to-date information, how many drafts should I try to obtain by setting my start date? For exemple, this morning, by selecting March 1st to March 10th (for 15 teams), I get the ADPs based on 15 drafts. Is this a high enough numbers of drafts to be relatively reliable picture of the most recent trends based on recent information?
Brent Hershey
12:40
Yeah, that's a good sample; anywhere from 8 to 12 or 15 drafts. The other thing (when applicable) is to filter by contest as close to what your league settings are. IOW, if you just do dates, that will include format from a 12-team FAAB league (30 rounds) to a 15-team draft and hold (750 players deep). Using those filters will help you get better results. Good luck!
Guest
12:44
Brent. Thanks for all you do and enjoyed the HQ weekend seminar. Hope you can help. I can keep two of the following in a 5x5 15 team keeper league Roman Anthony $5 Vinnie Pasquintini $5 Mason Miller $5 Jared Jones $5 Zack Neto $5 Jackson Jobe $5 Would love to lock up Roman A for three years but know it’s a gamble. Same with Jobe. Can put all under contracts for up to three years
Brent Hershey
12:44
Yeah, I'd not do long-term contracts with either of those rookies you mention. If keeping just 2 at those above salaries, I'd probably do Miller and Jones (Vinnie a close 3d). If extensions are a part of the mix, might do VinnyP at $10, but let the others play out and enjoy this year's salary benefits. Good group; tough choices.
Chet Manley
12:45
Projections seem down on Eovaldi, is this just injury risk or was he more lucky last year?
Brent Hershey
12:45
Some of both ... plus age. Will be a sneaky play if able to stay healthy.
Pedro
12:49
Brent:  AL only 5X5.  Can keep two of Wells, Soderstrom, Meadows, Story, Larnach or Wallner.  All would be $5.  I am leaning Soderstrom and Meadows (assuming his arm improves).  Thanks.
Brent Hershey
12:49
Hmm ... almost think Wallner is so similar to Soderstrom, with a longer track record. Also like Larnach a good bit, but would not keep the two Twins. Hate keeping an current injured player like Meadows ... though would be all over him if healthy. Postionally, maybe it should be Soderstrom and then either Wallner or Meadows. So ... I guess I agree with you, though could see Soderstrom AND Wallner.
Don Dringus
12:50
Gavin Williams is getting some helium, is this legit or just more spring training sample size freakouts?
Brent Hershey
12:50
I'm calling this one legit. Control needs to improve, but classic young guy with tools for the next step.
Rich
12:51
Hi Brent. How far down the SP rankings would you slide Kirby and Grayson Rodriguez in light of their current injury woes? Thsnks!
Brent Hershey
12:51
Assuming redraft, probably far enough down that I'm not going to get them. Just hate drafting already-injuried pitchers, when there are healthy dudes I like in both ranges.
Guest
12:53
Before Spring, Rafaela was on the bubble at $10 in my AL 5x5 OB keeper league, but appears to have improved where he has needed to the most. I think the kid is going to a star, do you agree?
Brent Hershey
12:53
No, b/c 18 AB is not enough to move the needle. However, I am intrigued b/c the early returns show him taking a few walks. I'd probably keep at $10 in AL-only, even with the OBP hit, and keep expectations modest. Perhaps he'll surprise and I'll be wildly wrong.
Dynasty Addict
12:55
Started playing dynasty about ten years ago and now only play in such leagues.  My favorite is a salary cap with a separate minor league where you can only advance out of the minors when their team does.  Any chance Painter, Lawler, Kurtz, or Wetherholt advance promote to MLB this year? Are they all worth keeping.  I have other minors but they are years away.
Brent Hershey
12:55
They are all worth keeping, but Painter/Lawlar are almost guaranteed MLB time this year and could have immediate impact. Kurtz/JJW might get there -- but they both have more work to do, and probably ceilings are a bit lower than the other duo.
Dynasty Addict
12:56
In a QS league do you like Efflin or Fedde more?
Brent Hershey
12:56
Assuming QS is not the only category, Eflin
Dynasty Addict
12:57
Got R. Lewis for $12 in salary cap league. I have R. McMahon as a back up 3B.  In an OBP league, am I in trouble at 3B?
Brent Hershey
12:57
Eh, maybe. Just ride it out, I'd think. RMcM's OBP not terrible, and we still don't have a good sense of who Lewis is, IMO.
Dynasty Addict
12:58
Is Detmers and Bobby Miller both talented guys who seem will never figure it out? Both are available for $3. Chase the upside?
Brent Hershey
12:58
Far different for me; Detmers has a much longer shot than Miller -- and has shown his skills for much longer. He'd probably be the one I pick out of the two.
WayOffBase
12:58
If RP Robertson isn’t signed, do I keep Zach Littell @$3 or Ernie Clement @ $1?
Brent Hershey
12:58
Team needs dependent. Clement if all else equal.
Dynasty Addict
1:00
H2H, QS, Salary cap ($500), dynasty. Have G. Rodriquez for $18. We have unlimited IL once their team designates them there.  Keep G.Rod. for the long term value? Move him for Soriano ($10) or Efflin ($1)? What is his long term projection?
Brent Hershey
1:00
Loved G-Rod at one point when he was shoving at AA; but just starting to sour a bit. $18 seems a bit high; depends where you are in the competition cycle. If you can wait, maybe hang on. If you're in it this year; cashing out for Soriano/Eflin might be the right call.
Brent Hershey
1:00
Just a couple more quickies ...
Dynasty Addict
1:01
What do you expect for Mahle this year and in the future?
Brent Hershey
1:01
My expectations are low (mainly health related)
FBP
1:01
NL 5x5 280 cap 10 teams. 3 questions:
Would you extend Suzuki to 13 for 2 years or keep at 8 for one year?
Would you keep Maneaa ($5) given the oblique?
Would you keep Joey Bart at $5?
Brent Hershey
1:01
  1. extend
  2. yes in NL only
  3. yes
Undecided
1:02
5 x 5, $280 cap, 25 player NL-only auction.  Last keeper down to Amaya C CHC $2, McLain 2B CIN $16 or Kerkering RP PHI $10.  Depends on who has the most potential upside and I can make a case for each of them.  So I will leave it up to you to break the tie!  Thanks Brent
Brent Hershey
1:02
Amaya is likely to bring you the most future profit IMO
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