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Brent Hershey
12:03
Hey all! Happy Monday Noon (in the East)! Lots going on between spring results, news, drafts. Reminder if you're submitting ... appropriate context (league size, pool, categories, etc) makes for a better response. Thanks all for showing up ...let's go!
Fluff Stewart
12:06
Where is Kumar?
Brent Hershey
12:06
Pretty safe assumption that this refers to Kumar Rocker, the Mets' 1st rounder from 2021 draft who didn't sign last summer. He did NOT return to Vanderbilt for 2022, and last we heard, he was likely to pitch briefly for an independent team this summer in hopes of being re-drafted this July. Very curious on how that will work out (where he'll get picked again, what teams will be interested, etc)
Beano
12:12
Thanks for this! I love these Q & A sessions.
I am still wondering about S Beer and A Alford at $4 & $3 respectively in an NL 5x5
Also - thoughts on H Ynoa?
Who are the top 5 minor league guys most likely to have an MLB impact this year?
Finally, crystal ball time - AL guys most likely to move to the NL this year?
Brent Hershey
12:12
In order:
1) Seem like similar risk profiles, tho def different players. I'd likely just choose 1; and would lean Alford given power/speed potential. Though it's close and could see the Beer argument as well.
2) Like the stuff; hopefully the head catches up and he can stay on the field. Decent middle-round option given team context
3) We have this in our books and on-site, but one name I like a lot given spring chatter is Riley Greene
4) Like the rest of this wasn't 'crystal ball time'? LOL. No real way of knowing; find a list of free agents to be and throw a dart
Guest
12:15
12 team NL-only keeper, 5x5, 13H/1swing/10P.  $270 cap w/30% inflation.  can only keep 12.  need advice on last 4 keepers. Have India, Jazz, B Rodgers @ 7 each, Burnes 28, Buehler 17, Webb 3, Gallegos 10, Treinan 3. do i keep Melancon at $1 this yr only or extend 1 yr to $6 for 22 & 23?  same w/3B elig Luis Urias at 7 or extend 1 yr to $12.  also have Bryce 47, Naquin 8, Bender 6, & Narvarez
Brent Hershey
12:15
Picking four of those first 8, I'd go India/Jazz/Buehler/Webb. I'd NOT extend Melancon despite his real-life 2-yr deal; and I'd just Urias play out at 7 also. Good luck!
Greg
12:16
What top 100 prospects have a chance to make the mlb opening day roster. I'm hearing Bobby With, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Julio Rodriguez and Oneil Cruz. Any others as I prepare for my upcoming drafts?
Brent Hershey
12:16
I'd rank them in terms of likelihood: Witt, Greene, Cruz, Torkelson, Rodríguez. But really tough with ~10 days yet to go. Pay close attention rest of the way
Mike
12:18
In a 12 team weekly HTH league with R, HR, RBI, BA, OPS as categories is Trout a late 1st early 2nd rounder despite the F health grade?
Brent Hershey
12:18
Yes
Guest
12:21
Do you think a club will pick up Trevor Rosenthal?  Is he worth drafting in deeper leagues now?
Brent Hershey
12:21
Think it's possible; though the fact that it hasn't happened yet -- and throwing in that we'd be looking for fantasy relevance (IE, saves) from him -- tells me that he's not worth drafting even in a deep league at this point. Maybe in-season if he lands in the right spot, but not now.
WayOffBase
12:23
Are there any A.L. prospects who could be up in late 2023 or early 2024 and haven't seen much hype, but you think might be worthy of a farm draft pick this next week?
Brent Hershey
12:23
Difficult, b/c these types of players are ones who will establish themselves this year in the minors. But impressed with what I've seen of Orelvis Martinez (TOR)  so far
Guest
12:26
Oneil Cruz. Will he make the OD roster. Is his hit tool ready for MLB pitching.  If he sent down, how long does he toil there?  He strikes me as one of the tougher keeper decisions this year, given his lack of experience and enormous power/speed upside.
Brent Hershey
12:26
OD roster TBD. Will definitely be swing and miss if he's up to start the season. But the 'when he connects' quality might be enough to override that concern. Again a lot will be determined in next 10 days -- quality of opponents will rise w/ MiLB cuts, remember -- but I'd think he's a May/June callup if he starts in AAA.
Steve
12:28
12-team AL Only traditional 5X5 with $260 cap.  Keeper decisions due Friday - do I keep $8 A. Kirk or $8 Gregory Soto?  Rest of freeze list is solid and includes Sal Perez and Ryan Pressly.  Thanks
Brent Hershey
12:28
I'd lean Kirk given 2-CA setup and Pressly already in tow.
Kasey
12:30
Roberts said Gonsolin will be in the rotation at the start of the season. Does this move the needle significantly in his projected value (NL)?
Brent Hershey
12:30
A bit; not sure about "significantly". Liked the 2020 version of TG much better than 2021. This gives him a bit more of an innings guarantee which is more important in NL-only, but seems like they will have other choices if Gonsolin falters. All depends on what your other choices are, really.
PJH
12:33
Hi Brent - Thanks for taking the time. I'm in a points league and need to submit 5 keepers later today. I'm set on Lance Lynn, Teoscar Hernandez, and Lindor. I'd like to keep another pitcher (Darvish) which would mean dropping either JD Martinez or Whit Merrifield. I think JD has more upside, but I worry about the scarcity at 2B if I drop Whit. Any thoughts on how to proceed? Thanks again.
Brent Hershey
12:33
In a points league, think I might lean towards keeping JDM + Whit and throwing Darvish back. Realize that sets you back on pitching some but those seem like 2 good every-dayers in a points format.
Allan Gustafson
12:36
How many outings (pitchers) do you typically wait to see if highly regarded prospects that have had issues adjusting on their first go around?
Brent Hershey
12:36
Somewhat league-dependent: if you league snatches up any breathing pitcher, and is in tune with rookie callups, then you have to make that call earlier than you might like. But ideally two to three starts -- though just know that the return on rookie SP is just terrible year over year. Many more Matt Mannings in the world than Alec Manoahs.
Brent Hershey
12:38
**QUICK PSA** In addition to providing some context to questions, avoiding open-ended ones will give you a better chance of a response. Rather than "give me two SP sleepers", providing a list of 5 guys that I can rank is exponentially better. Plus, a sleeper to you may not be a sleeper to me, etc etc. THANKS!
Katman
12:42
Hard to know what the Dodgers are going to do with their spectacular farm system. They're clearly willing and able to trade promising players to buy the best player available at a position. But Justin Turner's run is clearly coming to an end and Miguel Vargas looks willing and able to replace him next year if not before. If you're in an NL league, how should you value Vargas -- grab an exciting, undervalued prospect, or temper because the Dodgers gonna Dodger?
Brent Hershey
12:42
I'd probably  consider grabbing Vargas, but knowing that b/c it's the Dodgers, his chances of sliding right in to replacing Turner are probably slim. (See: Gavin Lux; others). He could get traded to another NL team ... but yeah, seems more likely that if Turner gets hurt/falters (or even if not), they'll be out trading for some awesome 3Bman. IE, one year ago, who woulda thunk both Trea Turner and Freeman would be on this club?
Allan Gustafson
12:46
Sorry pressed return and it disappeared.... I was going to tell you the two pitchers I was thinking of... Mitch Keller and Casey Mize. yum
Brent Hershey
12:46
Ah, OK ... I've seen more out of Mize in the majors than Keller. Definitely would want to see several outings of Keller succeeding against MLB bats before considering picking him up
Buff
12:48
12 team NL only keeper league, have $ for one big boy. Harper, Betts, Acuna, Marte, Olson: who are the best options, and why?
Brent Hershey
12:48
If you can get the "discount" (whatever that might be), then I'd probably target Acuna and Betts. Kinda figuring Harper and Olson will have a 'hype tax' applied. Marte (don't quite trust the SB at his age) as a distant 5th.
Guest
12:52
Hi Brent, I appreciate your work and understanding of the way baseball plays out from big leagues to fantasy. There is a lot of talk about Alec Bohm of the Philadelphia being post hype target vs a dud. Seems exceptionally risky with the bright spot of playing everyday. What’s your thoughts on Mr Bohm? Thanks Bill
Brent Hershey
12:52
Saw much of him in the minors, and believed it would translate, at least in the batters box. Obv did not in year 2. Really curious with Kevin Long (PHI new hitting coach), if he can turn him around. That said, still only a late dart for me; shoddy defense seemed to affect his headspace last year, and now there's whispers of Bryson Stott getting a shot at 3B. Also for now, "success" for him is still a lower ceiling, more a hit-over-power guy (not traditional 3B slugger type). That COULD be in his future, but gotta get the hit tool back on track first. Will be watching this closely for sure.
Katman
12:53
Connor Joe: legitimate 4th OF/DH, or bench fodder?
Brent Hershey
12:53
Legit 4th OF/DH, even w/ Grichuk on board. But don't get married to him if PT trends south; be willing to move on quickly.
Guest
12:54
Brent I have a question about Keston Hiura of Milwaukee. Does he have real value as a big leaguer or just too overmatched? Thanks again Bill
Brent Hershey
12:54
Real value; intrigued by spring stories of reworking his swing and the early results are positive. Throw in the personal stuff he had going on last year (family illness), and I"m willing to give him another shot. Even though he's risen some this spring, cost to try it out should still be cheap. NL DH nothing but helpful here
Yarika
12:57
What's the likelihood that Jeremy Pena gets 500 AB in 2022?  How do you think he'll do. And if not him, is Niko Goodrum Houston's next best option?
Brent Hershey
12:57
Starting to think that's likely; has the skills to succeed, but can't know 100% until he's facing MLB quality pitching every day. My expectations would be more to think he can hold his own in year #1 rather than really excel, though seems there could be some add'l ceiling down the road. And yes, if he falters, Goodrum is likely next in line.
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