JotCast | May 2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat | 5/28/2026

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May 2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat

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Elliott Gue

4:46

Question: In one of your communications you mentioned that you were looking at Comstock Resources as an investment.. It recently was hit with a disappointment in earnings attributed to bad weather causing a decrease in production, and some poor hedging. What are your thoughts about Comstock Resources as an investment with this pull back in price?

Answer: I still think CRK is an interesting company. However, it operates in the Haynesville Shale and is building a leading position in the Eastern Haynesville (basically the part of the Haynesville in Texas). CRK’s core Haynesville acreage needs prices in the $3.75/MMBtu region to generate significant free cash flow and their Eastern Haynesville acreage is still more of a “testing” phase where they’re experimenting with well designs and spacing.
Since those wells are deeper they’re higher cost though they also seem to be a bit more prolific from a production standpoint. On balance, though, it’s the same story – CRK needs gas prices to average closer to $4.00 for the E. Haynesville to make sense.
Right now, most of the ga futures curve is too low for CRK to generate much free cash flow. Over time, I think that’ll improve as demand continues to grow, LNG exports continue to ramp higher and producers are already cutting back production to support prices.

4:47

However, right now the market is hostile to gas and until we see some life in gas prices (such as a rally on hot weather this summer) then CRK is likely to remain weak or rangebound.

Denisimo

4:51

With all that's gone on in the world, you guys are hot on Baker Hughes (NYSE: BKR) and SLB (NYSE: SLB).

How high do you think they could go ?

Always appreciate your insight and wise thoughts.

Elliott Gue

4:51

Thanks for the question and the kind comments. I answered it just above a little earlier in the chat.

JJ

4:59

Out HOA just changed from a contract with Comcast to another cable / internet provider, and it seems like comcast as a stock has been declining and is in fact at a 5 year low. Your opinion on CMCSA today please.

Roger Conrad

4:59

I don't see a lot of risk at this point in Comcast (NSDQ: CMCSA) or the other big cable company Charter Communications (NSDQ: CHTR). They're both down a lot this year, especially Charter. The main reason is they're losing broadband customers to the US Big 3 communications companies AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon. And that's likely to continue being the case, as consumers and businesses opt for the combination of fiber and 5G wireless over coaxial cable. Comcast and Charter are gaining wireless customers. But this is a low margin business for them as they're basically renting the Big 3's networks to provide the service.

All that said, however, these companies are still generating a great deal of free cash flow to fund dividends and buybacks. Charter is on the verge of a transforming merger with Cox Communications, as well as a simplification deal with Liberty Broadband. And Cox/Charter will be a takeover target as well in this consolidating industry.

Both are buys though I still prefer the Big 3 long-term.

Maynard D

5:04

Hello everyone, My question is about Sinclair (DINO). I ended up with shares of Sinclair because they bought out one of the MLPs I owned. Do you think this is something I should hold on to? Thank you

Roger Conrad

5:04

Hi Maynard. HF Sinclair acquired its primary refinery logistics provider, then an MLP, some years ago. That followed a privatizing trend of other major refiners, including Valero.

Since then, we have not tracked DINO in our EIA coverage universes. And our primary refining pick has been the much larger and more diversified Valero. Refining assets are valuable. And this has been a great year for DINO stock. But we have taken partial profits recently on VLO. And given how far and fast refiners overall have run, it's probably a good idea to take some money off the table across sector plays.

Lee

5:11

Mr. Conrad would you tell me what does PAGP have that you recommend the additional 50 cents on the up-to price when all other prices are in whole numbers. Just curious.

Roger Conrad

5:11

Hi Lee. PAGP--Plains GP Holdings--is basically another way to own Plains All America Pipeline (NYSE: PAA) units. It has no other assets besides PAA units. And the quarterly distribution is the same. PAGP trades at a slight premium to PAA because investors get a 1099 at tax time rather than a K-1.

Most buy up to prices are whole numbers in our coverage universes--but not all. AES Corp, for example, is currently rated buy up to 14.50. In the case of AES, I've set the price based on a prospective total return to the current takeover offer of $15 per share in cash for the company--if that offer proves successful. In Plains' case, the number is set the same way it is for whole number buy in price--a level that still represents value based on business health and growth.

Guest

5:12

Hello Elliot, Id' be interested in your read on inflation, outlook for interest rates and the broader economy in the next 3-6 months.

Elliott Gue

5:12

In general, I am fairly sanguine on the economic outlook over the next 3 to 6 months. I look at a long list of indicators in that regard but generally I see a manufacturing sector that's expanding (PMI manufacturing and New Orders Strong), high-yield credit spreads have collapsed to 2.71% since peaking (at low levels) in late March. There are certainly risks like high oil prices, but I think it's important to remember that this isn't the 1970s. Back then, oil was a much-larger portion of our energy mix and the US was becoming ever more dependent on imports from the Middle East. Today, we get a sizable chunk of our energy from domestically produced natgas (at low prices) and we're the largest oil producer in the world and our economy is much less-reliant on heavy manufacturing than it was then. SO, the US economy can withstand elevated oil prices a lot better than in 1974. I believe investors got way, way over their skis on the higher for longer rates and stagflation trade. We saw the largest speculative net

Elliott Gue

5:12

short position in 30-Year and Ultra 30-Year Treasury futures market. By my calculation the DV01 position in the long end of the curve on May 19th (most recent data) was -$283.6 million. That means for every 1 basis point (0.01%) tick higher in 30-year Treasury yields, these speculators were set up to gain $283.6 million! That's the largest net short position in record. Whenever all the speculators are leaning in one direction, it's time to look for a reversal in the opposite direction, which is exactly what we've seen. I suspect that, outside energy, inflation is pretty stable, albeit above the Fed's target, and the central bank has limited control over a lot of the economy anyway (ie energy prices). In the end, I suspect they'll stand pat through yearend, and I think Treasury yields remain in the same range they've been in for the past 3 years.

BKNC

5:22

Curious of your present thoughts of Charter Communications? CHTR was merging with Liberty Broadband (parent) and is very cheap, but it has been dropping a lot (potentially dangerous). I know it was talked about several months ago (September 2025), just wondered what your present thought were. No dividend, probably speculative.

Roger Conrad

5:22

Charter i think has been beaten down too far. The Cox merger needs just California regulators' approval to close by early summer. And the company appears to have reached amicable settlements with the primary intervenors. The Liberty simplification deal is still expected to wrap up June 2027.

The stock along with Comcast's has been selling off in large part because Big Cable is losing broadband users to the Big 3 of AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon. That trend is likely to continue. But these companies are still generating massive free cash flow--which should expand dramatically for Charter/Cox post merger.

This is a momentum stock market, which falling stocks can go a lot lower than is justified by business developments. But long-term, there's a lot of value here.

Gary

5:25

Elliot. What are your thoughts on Mach Natural Resources (MNR). 15% dividend run by very conservative income-oriented management. Approx 70% nat gas, but it is like owning your own gas/oil wells. Dividends vary like DMLP and BSM, but a consistently much higher than BSM and DMLP. I would like to see you add this to your coverage in EIA for those interested in high/dividends.

Elliott Gue

5:25

I believe that's the Tom Ward company -- he was founder of Chesapeake (now Expand) and Sandridge Energy. He has been following the same basic business model for years -- buying up low-risk producing assets and paying out a sizable yield. MNR is heavily weighted to natural gas production (about 70%) and the Mid-Continent/Anadarko Basin. I would say that MNR is an actual producer while BSM and DMLP are royalty plays, which makes MNR more sensitive to funding CAPEX/rising well costs, etc. BSM, while also heavily weighted to gas, also benefits from owning royalty rights in the Haynesville, which is a key play for serving LNG export terminals. DMLP is somewhat more oil-levered at 40% to 45% liquids. Fundamentally, when adjusted for dividends all three tickers have generated similar returns over the past 12 months.

Guest

5:26

Roger, any MLPs or energy companies you would recommend to buy that are still reasonable value to replace KMI with? Thanks

Roger Conrad

5:26

I'm not recommending selling all your Kinder Morgan at this point. We did take a profit on 50% of the EIA position. Buy the advice is to sell half your position at 32 or higher if you haven't already done so.

That said, Energy Transfer (NYSE: ET) is still under 20 and Plains GP Holdings (NYSE: PAGP) is under 26.50. Both are in the Model Portfolio.

Maynard D

5:32

In 2008, Devon (DVN) stock was over $70 per share at one point. Do you think there's any possibility it could go that high again, or are you sticking with your profit taking target of $50 a share? Thanks

Elliott Gue

5:32

DVN just hasn't been one of our favorites for some time. While I think it's OK fundamentally, they have had too much gas exposure and they have had a history of operational missteps in recent years. I believe the combination of a new management team and the Coterra buy will help over time, but we have just preferred other names like OVV and EOG, which have outperformed DVN handily since late 2022 or so. All that said, in the higher for longer oil price environment we anticipate, you could certainly see DVN participate and move back to its prior cycle highs, especially if the new management team continues to perform.

Dwayne E

5:33

I've been accumulating WTRG since you recommended some time ago as a buy under $50. It seems to be in a trading in a rather tight range between $36 and $41. Is this a stock one should keep for the long haul or is WTRG a holding that should be bought in the mid 30s and sold when it is in the low 40s?

Roger Conrad

5:33

Hi Dwayne. Essential Utilities at this point is trading in line with its 0.305 AWK shares/WTRG share exchange ratio in American Water Works (NYSE: AWK) stock, per their proposed mega-merger. The deal won approval from Ohio regulators earlier this month, joining Kentucky and shareholders of both companies. And the companies continue to project a close "by the end" of Q1 2027.

Neither stock is getting much love now. But I think this merger has a great deal of long-term value for shareholders of both companies. I intend to continue holding my WTRG and then AWK post-merger for the very long-term.

Maynard D

5:37

The K-1s were really difficult for me. Isn't this something that A.I. could handle? It seems that if you just plug in all the numbers that you have, that A.I. could do the rest. Have you guys heard if anyone is working on that or if it exists already?

Roger Conrad

5:37

Quite possibly. I've never heard of any company offering this service. And given what a pain complications with the IRS can be, I'd want to see something proven before trusting my filing with it. But we are only starting to scratch the surface with what AI is capable of and worth using for.

Let's all keep our eyes open. I suspect an enterprising accountant will likely discover something like that first.

Tommy L

5:42

With all the hype on AI and construction of data centers, is there one REIT that stands out above the others?

Roger Conrad

5:42

i think American Tower (NYSE: AMT) is by far the best value of REITs that own and operate data centers. The stock yields almost 4% and has been growing reliably. It has underperformed the past few years primarily because T-Mobile US has been consolidating the former Sprint's wireless tower infrastructure contracts--and more recently because DISH/EchoStar defaulted on its contracts to the tune of several billion dollars.

I expect AMT and others will recover a good chunk of that money eventually. But Q1 results already show an acceleration of revenue as it's put the Sprint consolidation largely behind it. And the Coresite data center business is surging.

Business is also good at Digital Realty, Equinix and Iron Mountain. But they're also up a lot this year and are basically momentum stocks--not really investable for long-term investors in my view.

Jim T

5:43

With the current erratic stock price movements what is your current and mid-term estimates for VG. It seems that the stock price is somewhat detached from its value.

Elliott Gue

5:43

VG is a very volatile stock and it only IPO'd in early 2025. The way I look at it is that the stock got an initial boost this year as it started winning arbitrations, settling other arbitrations and prevailing over SHEL in NY courts. This led to lower perceived risk of major arbitration awards hurting VG cash flows. Then VG got a giant boost from the Iran war on the idea that the loss of Qatari LNG exports meant more demand for US export terminals which VG builds. Since then, we've pulled back to just under our $13 buy target. We believe that, despite all the volatility, the story remains unchanged and constructive. VG has been able to bring new LNG export terminals onstream in record time and the longer Hormuz is closed the better US LNG exports are going to look. I suspect that we're going to start hearing about deals to further expand export capacity into the 2030s. Also a bit more recovery from US natural gas prices, which we'd expect, will have no positive impact on the business at all, but does tend to

Elliott Gue

5:43

act as a tailwind for the stock.

Jim T

5:43

Thank you for your tremendous service, it[s much appreciated. What is your current evaluation of VG. I seems like it has tremendous value as a company, but the stock is erratic, Jim T

Elliott Gue

5:43

Thank you! I covered VG just above.

Gary

5:47

Canadian O&G and pipelines are still undervalued by many analysts. Does EIA cover any smaller E&P producers or midstream companies that have not made a moonshot yet? Example smaller companies like IPOOF, with a nice dividend. Thanks for the easy access to both of you. This is the friendliest financial advisement service I subscribe to.

Roger Conrad

5:47

Yes. We cover a large number in our "Canada and Australia" coverage universe, which you can find in full at the end of the current main monthly issue of EIA. Shell's pending takeover of ARC Resources (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF) is a harbinger of more M&A in the sector, which for the first time is exporting to Asia thanks to the Coastal GasLink pipeline and LNG Canada. Peyto Exploration and Development (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF) is one to look at. We don't currently cover InPlay OIl (TSX: IPO, OTC: IPOOF) but will take a look.

Guest

5:56

Hi Elliott and Roger - first, love the commodity and ag focus of Elliott’s recent Sunday videos. Really interesting, and highly pertinent. Second, a question for Roger: in the past, KHC was part of your Income portfolio. It seems like the company has turned some corners, with a robust dividend. Any thoughts about it?

Roger Conrad

5:56

Thank you for those kind words. I exited Kraft in July 2025, following disappointing Q2 results and guidance and the announcement the company would split in half. Since then, I've been watching it but still haven't seen a compelling reason to get back in, though it's still 15-20% below the price where I sold.

They have improved profitability and free cash flow. But the business still appears to be shrinking--organic net sales -0.4% in Q1--as price increases (0.8%) are not offsetting volume declines. And that was even after a favorable boost from exchange rates. Operating income dropped -4.3% as the business is still facing severe inflation pressure. And guidance is for -14% to -18% operating income in 2026.

There are still iconic products here. But there's also a move away from processed food generally in the US. Bottom line: This is still a potential value trap and I think there are better stocks for our money.

Sal P

6:03

Evening Gentlemen Wanted your thoughts on Nisource inc . Ive owned this since your recommendation in 2010 @ 5 dollars . Is it still worth while holding , the dividend is like 2 1/2 % . Thanks for all the advice through the years .

Roger Conrad

6:03

Hi Sal. Nisource (NYSE: NI) is a very well run electric and gas utility with a very strong growth profile grounded in regulated rate base investment. As my May Utility Report Card comments highlighted, management has raised expected earnings growth to 9-10% a year through 2033. That's up from 8-9% projected at the beginning of 2026. One key driver is the Genco--a separate unit to serve the data center business. Profits there will depend on execution and attracting new contracts and it's been successful.

That said, NI as a utility stock is a pretty good example of how investors have already priced in all that good news and then some. In fact, the stock is now trading above 45--a price I've designated as worthy for taking a partial profit to bank some gains. NI may still go higher. But this is not a price that's been sustainable historically. And it's likely there will be an opportunity to buy back at a lower price.

Guest

6:08

Hi Roger. What is different about MPLX in 2026 compared to 2023? The reason I ask is its dividends were $3.34 in 2021; then $2.89 in 2022; then dropped to $2.33 in 2023; big increase to $3.51 in 2024; then upped to $3.95 in 2025 and currently $4.31 in 2026. What has the company done so differently since 2024 that allows it to raise its dividend by 85% in just 3 years??? I am totally intrigued by MPLX's performance. Wondering if this is too good to be true? Are they bolting on lots of new acquisitions? Thank you always for your sound advice over the many years we have been your subscribers! Best, Barry

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