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May 2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat
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AvatarRoger Conrad
6:08
The main reason MPLX' dividend is so much higher is Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC)--the principal owner--wants to harvest more cash from its midstream business, which is basically what MPLX units represent. When they started raising, the distributable cash flow coverage ratio was over 2X. Now it's about 1,3X. The company has made successful investments. And asset utilization has risen, as is the case with most North American midstream companies. But the primary reason the distribution has risen so quickly is that the company is paying out more of its cash flow to investors.

That's one reason I've been expecting MPLX to throttle back to a still robust but more sustainable mid-single digit percentage dividend growth rate. And it's one reason I don't want to recommend paying more than 55 for the stock.
JT
6:13
Hi Elliott, Do you see promise in PBF reaching its previous high of $62.88 given how well other refiners like VLO have done this year?  PBF has not had the same move, and I wonder if that is because its prospects are just not very good compared to other refiners.
AvatarElliott Gue
6:13
Actually, both VLO and PBF are up the same amount in percentage terms this year 50% and 49% respectively. PBF outperformed to the March peak while VLO has outperformed since because it's seen (correctly) as the higher quality company. However, I believe PBF can regain those $60+ highs over time as refining margins remain elevated. It's basically the high-Beta refining play in that it tends to rise more when the refining stocks are strong and get hit harder when the sector weakens.
Ted
6:14
what is the current timeline for XIFR have a dividend reinstated given the possibility of a NEE and D merger?
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:14
Hi Ted. First of all, I don't think the NextEra Energy/Dominion Energy merger will affect the unfolding recovery plan of XPLR Infrastructure (NYSE: XIFR) all that much, if at all. Though NextEra is the primary and controlling shareholder of XPLR, the recovery plan depends squarely on generating free cash flow with conservative investment and strong asset utilization so XPLR can pay off the remaining three CEPFs. At that time, it will be in position to pay a dividend again, though it may elect to devote free cash flow to cut other debt, buy back stock and/or make more investments.

Where the Dominion merger could wind up affecting XPLR positively is providing more investment opportunity in specific projects serving data centers. But again, that depends on XPLR again becoming a viable way to raise capital for post-merger NextEra.
rbblum
6:16
I believe you briefly mentioned SLATE GROCERY REIT (SRRTF) quite some time ago. Does this equity have any consideration for placement within one's portfolio ?
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:16
I think Slate is a solid REIT. And I do track it in my REIT Sheet coverage universe, along with other grocery anchored retail companies paying fat, safe and growing dividends.

If you're interested in the REIT Sheet, please give Sherry a call at 877-302-0749 anytime 9-5 ET Monday through Friday--and she'll be happy to show you want I do there.
Peter W
6:16
What are your thoughts about Vitesse (VTS)?
AvatarElliott Gue
6:16
VTS basically has non-working interest in wells in the Bakken Shale region. The issue the stock has had is that they are heavily hedged on oil -- something in the 70% range for the rest of the year. That gives them little upside leverage to the higher oil prices we're seeing right now, which is why the stock has been weak in my view. I'm in the higher for longer camp and I just think those hedges in the high $60s are going to be a headwind for VTS.
Peter
6:17
What is your view of Vitesse Energy (VTS)?
AvatarElliott Gue
6:17
Answered just above.
Maynard D
6:20
I was just going through my stock list and I saw that there is a tender offer for Shell (SHEL).  Is this something we should look into?
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:20
I believe what you're talking about is an unsolicited offer from a private equity firm. And we generally advise avoiding these.

For one thing, the "offer" is usually at a discount to the market price--what you could actually sell for now. The acquirer will usually require you to commit your stock for a period of time before paying out, And if you read the fine print, they usually have a penalty free walk option.

So you take all the risk and tie up your money for an inferior price. If you want to sell, do so. But there's no benefit to these tender offers. I don't know who they rope into these things or why they're permitted by regulatory authorities to make them. But they must work, since they keep popping up.
Sal P
6:30
Do  we have any info on EIX ,  It  was  diving forward  for a short while and now dropping again . Did they have a bad outcome from there law suits
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:30
Hi Sal. Edison International (NYSE: EIX) had very strong Q1 earnings, as I noted in the May Utility Report Card. And while they still face a lot of litigation for alleged liability to the Eaton Fire in early 2025, they are little by little settling with victims and securing support from California regulators and through legislation.

It's pretty clear this case is going to drag at least through this year and probably well into 2027. The utility has not even been formally found guilty of igniting the blaze by CalFire and other authorities. But even in a worst case--Edison is found guilty and negligent--the state Wildfire Insurance Fund will cover all but $4 bil. And a negligence finding is a much higher bar.

It's likely EIX stock will be rangebound until Eaton liability is further in the rear view mirror.  But I'm comfortable recommending it at 75 or lower.
Maynard D
6:36
The Five-Year chart for NPIFF doesn't look too good.  What do you guys think about them right now?
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:36
Northern Power cut its dividend by 40% to hold in cash last year. And the stock has underperformed accordingly.

The key issue now is executing its "strategic plan" to operate 7 gigawatts of power generation by 2030. That requires completing construction of two large offshore wind facilities--one in Taiwan and the other off the Polish coast. And that requires financing CAPEX at economic cost.

The dividend cut should allow them to fund CAPEX, debt service and the payout with operating cash flow. Q1 results were not in time for the May CUI. But they were solid an in line with guidance--with free cash flow up 17% and the company reporting 50% of turbines installed for the Taiwan and Polish project at the end of Q1. All power in Taiwan is now contracted for full operation in 2027. The Polish project is on track to start up later this year.

Bottom line, Northern Power is still a buy for aggressive investors at 18 or lower--I look for a price in the 30s as the strategic targets are met.
Guest
6:46
I have an opportunity to acquire Quantinuum at its IPO next week. It would be a relatively small position in the speculative part of my portfolio. I will be looking to hold it for perhaps 5 to 10 years. What do you think?
AvatarElliott Gue
6:46
I can't say I'm an expert on quantum computing. However, there's definitely a lot of momentum there in names like Rigetti (RGTI). My understanding is that Quantinuum is working on a deal with Microsoft (MSFT) to address one of the problems with quantum computing, which is "noise" and data loss in Qubits caused by environmental interference. Obviously super speculative but the MSFT connection certainly sounds like a positive to me.
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:48
Well that looks like everything we have in the queue today, as well as from pre-chat Q&A. If for some reason, we didn't answer you fully, please drop us a line at service@capitalisttimes.com and we'll get back to you as soon as we can.
Frank
6:56
Have both BSM and DMLP in my portfolio. Which has the best potential going forward if I wanted to add to positions on any deescalation?
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:56
I think Black Stone Minerals (NYSE: BSM) is pretty well positioned for deescalation. Royalty trusts' distributions grow when there's more production from their lands and realized selling prices rise. BSM is more leveraged to natural gas. And $3 is more or less the magic number for the Haynesville Shale where their lands are. It looks like drilling plans are going ahead in that region on its lands-including for the owner of an under construction LNG export facility. And management has said a $2 per share per year dividend is possible at that price curve--up from the current $1.20. A drop in oil prices will likely cause all energy stocks to sell off. But this company has very little debt and the dividend looks well covered at Q1 levels of output and gas prices.

Dorchester has more oil exposure, so a drop in oil prices could hit it harder. But both BSM and DMLP are buys for more aggressive investors who want a more direct link between energy prices and income--not for those who need a set payout.
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:56
Ok well that was one more.
6:57
Thank you everyone for participating today! You've given us a lot to think about as always. And as I said just before that last question, feel free to drop us a line before the next chat--which you can expect towards the end of June.
Have a great evening everyone!
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