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May16_2025 BHQ Chat
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Ray Murphy
12:01
Happy Friday everyone! Quiet night in MLB last night, but now it's "Rivalry Weekend". Yes, it's always a barn-bruner when <checks notes>... the Twins and Brewers get together. Never change, Rob Manfred...

Anyway, lots of questions await, so let's dive in...
Kelly
12:04
Ray!! Happy Friday!

I have just a few very quick questions for you.

Mason Montgomery? Could he emerge as the TB closer this year?

Gavin Williams seems to be showing signs of life. What's this guy's ceiling long-term?

Who's your favorite young, emerging catcher?

Thanks for all you do!!

Kel
Ray Murphy
12:04
1. Montgomery's got a flashy K rate, but 3 HR in 39 PA vs RH batters tells me he's not that close to the closer role.

2. Yeah, love Williams' stuff and trust CLE to get the most out of him, but still not sure the breakout is at hand. Someday, sure, but don't think it's imminent.

3. I watched more of last week's Marlins/White Sox series than I would recommend to anyone, mostly because I like both Ramirez and Quero quite a bit.
Sanchez
12:08
Hi Ray ... PCA is a top ___ OF end of year ... thanks!
Ray Murphy
12:08
He's $35 YTD right now, so without running a full CDG valuation, I'd swag that as "top 5" OF so far. Can he hold it? It's a really unusual skill set... we know the speed is legit, but the power is surprising. He's hitting a ton of FB, even more than 2H of last year... which doesn't work well unless he keeps clearing the fence. I assume the power pace has to slow down, but even then he's in range of .250/20/40, which would be pretty great... top 20 OF?
Steve
12:09
Do you trust Logan Henderson going forward this season? Two pitch pitchers worry me.
Ray Murphy
12:09
I'm pretty interested. Stuff seems to play well enough without a third pitch. MIL another pitching-smart org. Good weekend for young SP FAAB, between him and Zebby (MIN).
John Lowenstein
12:12
I'm in an NL-only league, and I'm wondering if there is a middle reliever that could break out and gain the majority of saves on his team the rest of this season. Your thoughts?
Ray Murphy
12:12
Great "teach yourself to fish" topic. Go to our Bullpen Indicators chart, which now has Last30 splits. Click filter for NL, go to L30 Skills in Stat Group, sort by K%. Some good names there.... Luis Mey, Bednar, Estrada, Dylan Lee near the top of the list. Could do the same thing sorted by Lev Index, see who managers are trusting. Great tool, underused...
Don Dringus
12:15
any chance Armstrong gets some run in Texas as Bochy's shiny new mediocre reliever?
Ray Murphy
12:15
Same tool, filter by TEX and see their bullpen in one list. Seems to me that Armstrong's 13% BB% is kind of disqualifying. Skills would clearly point to Martin as the guy to speculate on, but Caleb Boushley's been good too... his LI is very low, but see if he starts working his way up the ladder.
Don Dringus
12:16
Time to cut bait on Altuve if someone will pay full value? He's looking closer to washed up
Ray Murphy
12:16
I was out on him coming into the season, so yeah, if you can still get value for the name, I'd explore it.
Beano
12:18
Hi Ray! NL 10 team 5x5. With strider returning, should I waive casparius, RRodriquez or L Mey? (I’m thinking RR…🤔)
Ray Murphy
12:18
Oof, all three are throwing really well. Wait as long as you can...
Beano
12:19
NL 10team 5x5. Is it time to move on from M Kepler? He’s only $1 but he’s not …good? What’s your crystal ball tell you about him ROS?
Ray Murphy
12:19
Thought he was picking it up a couple of weeks back, hasn't really born out in the numbers. But 147 HctX in May is enough for me to hold a little longer.
Broken. Bat
12:20
Ray, maybe an off line question. Going to Fenway in July to see Sox vs. Dodgers on a Friday evening game. 1st time to Fenway, can’t wait. I arrive early Friday. Are there any bars, restaurants, places of interest around Fenway you woukd recommend.
Ray Murphy
12:20
Yes, offline would be good for this. Great topic for our forums if you want to post there, I can chime in along with other locals. Honestly, a lot of the surrounding places have turned over since the pandemic. But happy to throw some ideas.
Buff
12:22
NL only 5x5 roto keeper. May need to trade one of deep stable of starters for steals. Does either Pfaadt or Ranger Suarez for Frelick make sense? Pfaadt and Frelick non-keepers, Suarez can be kept for $9.
Ray Murphy
12:22
Seems ok, but I'd probably look around and see if you can find a better steals source. Frelick projected 15 more SB, would think you can find more.
Guest
12:23
12 tm mixed roto qs league. Want to move a SP for some offense. Would you recommend selling high on Luzardo or Gore vs selling low on Bibee or Gallen. Thanks!
Ray Murphy
12:23
I'd probably sell high on Luzardo just because I'm worried about how he'll handle the workload/what his IP cap might be/will he break down. But make sure you remember the HIGH part of "sell high".
HW
12:24
Romano back in charge in the PHI pen?
Ray Murphy
12:24
Sure, because I cut him a few weeks ago. :)

He definitely looks a lot better, and he's re-earned Thomson's trust. But that situation is likely to stay fluid.
Hesh
12:26
Soderstorm or Santander ROS in 5x5s?
Ray Murphy
12:26
Projections favor Santander just a little bit. I might lean toward Soderstrom personally, just because of the home park factor.
Glory Daze
12:28
Competing in Scoresheet NL only dynasty league with ten teams.  Acquired by trade two seasons ago C Patrick Bailey, my supposed star dynasty C for years.  Well this season he is playing more as a "dud" than "dynasty stud".  Wassup with him?  Should I continue protecting him and hoping he becomes what I had expected or cut my losses and run?  Thanks Ray.  Keep up the excellent, much appreciated work.
Ray Murphy
12:28
Maybe my memory stinks, but I don't ever recall thinking "dynasty stud" with Bailey. This year's been bad for sure, and skills say it's as bad as it looks. Lots of FB going nowhere. I'd be looking for your next dynasty stud C.
Lou
12:29
Thanks for the chat, Ray. Sandy Alcantara owner in an NL-only, dynasty league. Let's attribute lots of rust and uncustomary command issues to his disastrous return. Is he a hold still in the hopes that a trade puts him in a much better situation for wins? Velo and GB rate look fine.
Ray Murphy
12:29
As bad as it's been, I'm not ready to give up. He's gone 8 starts, I would expect the next 8 are going to be better... and as you say, that could punch his ticket into a better situation.
Lou
12:31
Matt Shaw heating up in Iowa. Will the Cubs return him to third base by early June if he keeps producing at AAA, or are they more likely to go the trade route since expectations are so high on the north side? Kid looks like a fantasy producer across the board if he can settle in.
Ray Murphy
12:31
Logically, it would seem to make sense that they give him another look in Chicago before making a decision that they need to hit the trade market.
Ace
12:33
Is Shane Baz a drop in 12 team H2H if he doesn't perform this weekend?
Ray Murphy
12:33
I don't think one start is ever the right decision timeline. He's made 6 of 8 starts in that Steinbrenner Field launch pad. The schedule turns now, he'll be on the road a lot of the summer. Worth seeing if that makes a difference. Skills are still plenty decent.
Ace
12:34
Will Aaron Nola get it together or should I move on in my 12 team H2H (deep rosters)?
Ray Murphy
12:34
Move on to what? I think we know that Nola will break your heart with periodic blowups, but we also know he's not really a 6.xx ERA guy. xERA is 3.75, pretty much exactly what we expected coming in.
Chris
12:36
Hi Ray, happy Friday and thanks for taking my question:
 
Need your crystal ball gazing (or dart-throwing) skills since I made the mistake of drafting Pressley in 5x5 roto league. Available in FAAB are 2 other Cubs, Flexen and Pomeranz, along with S Armstrong (TEX), P Johnson (ATL), L Mey (CIN). Please rank in order of likelihood you think they will take over closer duties or at least pick up a goodly number of saves. Thanks!
Ray Murphy
12:36
Well, I'll start with "not Flexen".

Mentioned Armstrong in an earlier question. Not super excited about him either. Pomeranz shockily looks pretty good so far after having not been seen this decade. I like Johnson and Mey the most here, I think.
BHQ Subscriber
12:38
I'm short on power in my NL-only 5x5 league.  Is Max Muncy likely to be the answer to my prayers?
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