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May8 BHQ Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:00
Good noon, crew! Hope you all had better luck tiptoe-ing your way around Braxton Garrett in the last week than I did! But we're back for another week, the queue is full of question ... let's go!
John
12:03
My back up plan for Max Fried is Will Smith or Grayson Rodriguez at TB. Should I roll with Will Smith?!?
Brent Hershey
12:03
Think it's team-dependent; IOW how badly you need save chances. My sense is Bochy is going to roll w/ Smith for a bit. BUT ... our starting pitching number for Grayson at TAM is not horrible if you're more in need of the start (and can handle some risk in your weekly profile — TAM bats are just smokin')
AL Jeff
12:05
Hi Brent. I’m in AL-only Roto league. As a long-time BBHQ subscriber, I’m trying to follow the mantra of exercising excruciating patience. But will my patience be rewarded with Oswaldo Cabrera, Will Brennan and Nick Maton? Or should I cut bait on some of them?
Brent Hershey
12:05
Yeah, context matters in an AL-only; it's rough carrying three of the EEP guys. I'd probably trust Cabrera most, and then Brennan more than Maton -- but all are struggling right now for sure. Maton has the least prospect pedigree, yet DET is still playing him. I do fear the PT for the others could dry up soon.
Pedro
12:08
Hi Brent.  I have to sit one of Varland against Padres, Heaney against Seattle, or Anderson against Cleveland.  I am intrigued by Varland, as its a home game and his underlying numbers are far better than his surface numbers.  Thoughts?  Thanks
Brent Hershey
12:08
Our Matchup numbers say sitting Anderson is the choice, by a pretty decent margin. Not the same guy as last year. Big Varland fan; his stuff just moves, has a big arsenal, and MIN obviously has helped guys pitch better than expected so far.
Ron
12:13
H2H points league and have a couple of questions for this week. 1B Tellez or Nate Lowe. 3B Riley or Muncy. C Melendez or Langeliers. Do I rolls the dice w/Braxton Garrett?
Brent Hershey
12:13
-MIL has the friendliest schedule for hitters over the next 7 days, so would probably lean Tellez though I assume the Ks that could come with it hurt in your format.
-Think I'd go Riley>Muncy, even though it's 5G vs. 6G.
-Langeliers by a hair
-Yes on Garrett ... look at his game log. Take out the 11-run debacle. It's not a 100%, but Matchups are good this week, so I'm still in.
Rick
12:17
In a keeper league looking more towards next year and on, would you rather hold Kirilloff (hopefully he's done with his wrist issues) or take a chance on Manzardo who maybe gets called up in the second half?
Brent Hershey
12:17
Kirilloff, though it's really 'prove it' time w/r/t his wrist. Not his fault in any way, but if healthy (big IF) like his long-term prospects better.
Rick
12:20
Is Gunnar Henderson droppable in a redraft league?  Has his value changed much in a dynasty league?
Brent Hershey
12:20
Doubt it; though replacement value (IE, league size/parameters) matters. And, no, I don't think his valued has changed much in a dynasty league. Rough start is a great reminder of how often even the top guys have initial trouble making the adjustment. The fact that he's still walking a ton is a good sign to me overall. Will need to be more aggressive at some point -- but I'm encouraged that he's not pressing and chasing junk, knowing that the results aren't there yet. And as long as he keeps doing that and playing good defense, I'll bet the O's keep him up and give him every chance to turn it around with the bat.
Jack
12:24
Hearing rumors Twins might send Miranda down. Just a blip in his development? Long-Term a top 10-15 third baseman?
Brent Hershey
12:24
I was never this high (top 10-15 3Bman) on Miranda to start, so I'm a "no" on the second part of your question. Doesn't mean he's not a valuable big-leaguer, though. But yes, growing pains here for sure. It's a fair point also about Miranda's limited defensive value as compared to Henderson, which could likely play a role in how long they stick it out with him.
Scotty P.
12:27
Hi, Brent.

I picked up Geraldo Perdomo in my mixed keeper league recently. What r your thoughts on this guy? His Statscast resembles a Little Leaguer, but he seems to have great plate skills. He also attempted 3 SB the past 2 games, nabbing 2 of them. 23, former 9E prospect ranking ...

Are you in or out?

Thanks!

SP
Brent Hershey
12:27
Mostly out, because of the crazy high BABIP and Statcast foibles in his profile. BUT ... does control the zone and had a pedigree coming up (though it was a bit volatile). Not sure I see slam-dunk keeper value, but is still 23 on the other hand. But that BABIP ...
BigRed
12:30
Nick Lodolo's killing both my real and fake team this year. Are you holding tight in a keeper league? If one was to sell low, who would you target? Maybe I'll just bench him for the rest of the month! LOL

Walk me off the ledge, please ..
Brent Hershey
12:30
Yes in a keeper league I'm not worried about his long-term value. But I'd definitely consider benching him in the short-term if you have that option. He's getting bit HARD by BABIP and home runs per fly balls, both of which will regress to the norm at some point. My prescribed therapy would be to go back and watch that game against the Phillies the first week of the season.
Analyst
12:31
What are the percentages that Nolan Jones (OF, COL, LHB) wins a significant role by July?
Brent Hershey
12:31
60%? A lot less than it should be because, well ... the Rockies' track record with playing talented rookies is ... not good.
Will
12:34
Maikel Garcia..20 steal guy? Brennan for Clev.what happend? thanks
Brent Hershey
12:34
Garcia -- think that's possible, though will it come this year?  Hopefully the Royals just play him enough to find out, but remember how past rookies like ... well, Will Brennan, don't always hit the ground running.
Specifically on Brennan - small sample size good luck in 2022 has reversed so far in 2023. Results going forward should be better given his minors track record -- but 1) is he able to adjust, and 2) will CLE give him the opportunity to adjust? Wasn't a huge prospect coming up, so the leash may not be super long.
Guest
12:37
Hope for Jessie Winker?
Brent Hershey
12:37
I had some for sure in coming back to a good hitters park in the NL, but it hasn't materialized. Some of the underlying metrics are better than the SEA disaster -- but the disappearance of his power is puzzling at best. Now just a platoon bat, so getting it back seems to be harder than ever.
Ron
12:38
Hi Brent, in 5x5 which two do you like more ROS? (i) Grayson Rod or Detmers and (ii) Grichuk or Suwinski?
Brent Hershey
12:38
The pitchers; even with the blowup risk that all SP seem to have this year. Difference-maker potential for both SP that isn't there for the OFers
Porchovilla
12:39
Which hot hand OF is most likely to produce ROS (5x5 OBP): Suwinski, L. Gurriel, Wade Jr.?
Brent Hershey
12:39
I'll go Suwinski. Most broad skill set, PIT most likely to just play him out there every day.
Pedro
12:42
Brent, I had Ober on my AL only 5x5 but traded him for Cal Raleigh yesterday.  I was concerned because he still doesn't strike out many guys and he has an xFIP of 4.76 and a SIERA or 4.64 despite his low ERA.   Did I do OK here?  Thanks
Brent Hershey
12:42
That's probably fair. Sounds like I'm a bigger Ober fan than you; love the fact that he's in MIN and getting a shot now. But Raleigh could really be a top CA; I still maintain there's some BA upside there (even just .235-.240) that would likely only enhance his already massive power. So yes, you did fine.
Guest
12:45
Which of the Duran "brothers" forecasts better in a keeper league  - Jarren or Ezequial?
Brent Hershey
12:45
Jarren; clearer path to a full-time job given his CF exploits. Plus, is a former top prospect who is thriving after several up and downs (IE, it seems the light has gone on, or he's been able to make the adjustments necessary to become a productive full timer). Ezequiel is just further down the scale in terms of pedigree and experience, as well as more of a utility profile that could keep him from locking down a full-time MLB job. Like parts of what I see from Ez Duran, just like Jarren better.
Porchovilla
12:47
Seeing any signs of hope for a Detmers turnaround? Ks and velo are great but everything else is rough. Tempted to drop, even just to free up a streaming SP spot, but also looking at a soft schedule coming up…
Brent Hershey
12:47
Lots of signs, and you named them. When they are skills-based like this, and you see he's getting killed by an unlucky balls in play and strand rates, there's most often a stats correction coming. Bench for now if you must, but would not give in to the drop temptation.
Judley
12:49
Hey Brent! Long time, 1st time!!

It's been a great stretch for Leodys Taveras. Is this the year for him? He started in the majors as a youngin' and always boasted 5-tool potential. Do you see a 20/20 season in his future??
Brent Hershey
12:49
Yep, picked up Leody in a league over the weekend because of what you state: skills have started to materialize, and he's still crazy young with experience, and think he has opportunity there in TEX to lock down CF. Not sure if it's this year, but I see 20/20 is still possible.
Oh, and welcome to the chat!
Brian K
12:54
I have Matz, Flaherty & Mikolas on my team. 16 team 5X5. Any chance anyone of them turns the corner in the near future?
Brent Hershey
12:54
Would give the best chance to Matz as long as he stays healthy — but that "best" chance might not be enough to help you. But MM doesn't strike enough guys out; JF walks too many. I'm looking for upgrades where I can (realize a 16-teamer can be tough on that front depending on your roster size)
Bob
12:56
Both of Taj Bradley's minor league starts have been bad. Would you drop him for Charlie Morton or Bailey Ober? I can only make 21 roster moves the rest of the season.
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