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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat - 2/10/2021
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Meg Rowley
4:01
Hi everyone and welcome to the chat. Let's get started.
JJ
4:01
Not a question but I feel super elite browsing FG in dark mode. Would recommend membership to anyone reading this who isn't currently one.
Meg Rowley
4:02
It is so cool! I'm glad you're enjoying it. I'll remind our chatters that it is benefit for all of our Members, regular and ad-free.
4:03
Our writers are rad and because they do work that has their name obviously attached every day, they get their due praise, but Sean Dolinar is really FanGraphs' unsung hero. The dev work that he and David do is so great.
Anthony
4:03
Who do you think takes the A.L West?
Meg Rowley
4:05
Despite their departures and some concern about the rotation, I think Houston emerges but if some of the upside plays in the rotation pan out, LA isn't a wild guess.
4:06
How much of that is me wanting Trout in the playoffs? I mean, it is some, but when your roster has Trout and Rendon, you're starting in a good spot, and I think they have real upside in the rotation (what's that, a football for me to kick, Lucy) and the best bullpen they've had in a while.
Nick
4:06
Do you think there’s going to be a league wide innings shortage this year, what with the shortened 2020 season? Prospect people talk about inning jumps all the time and I’m wondering how much even veteran workhorses will fare trying to ramp back up after having pitched a third as many innings as they normally do. I personally would set the o/u for 200 IP starters league wide  at like... 2. Am I crazy?
Meg Rowley
4:09
Every team person I talk to is worried about how guys are going to be able to ramp up, though several have noted that a more normal spring training should hopefully alleviate some of that, and at the very least, will tell us a lot about where guys are. I'm not sure how to balance the benefit of less wear/tear vs. not having innings on the arm. Two 200 inning guys feels light, but I think we'll set a new low relative to recent years.
Aaron
4:10
On a couple of recent EW episodes you mentioned that the Tigers are doing some interesting things with pitch development.  I was wondering if you wold elaborate on that.  I'd love to have something to get my hopes up about.  Thanks!
Meg Rowley
4:11
The sense I've gotten is that they've gotten much more adept at helping their guys refine and alter their arsenals to play in complementary ways, better sequence their pitches, and more cleanly delineate pitches from one another in a beneficial way. Mize is a guy who comes to mind here.
Asinwreck
4:11
What effect does deadening the ball have on Nick Madrigal's MVP chances?
Meg Rowley
4:13
Very little? While it seems like a slightly deadened ball is likely to lead to fewer home runs for some guys, the boppers are probably going to be just fine. Mike Trout's home runs aren't wall scrapers. Does a more contact-oriented offensive environment help raise the profile of a guy like Madrigal? Sure! But I don't think the lack of home runs was really what was holding him back.
Guest
4:14
It should happen regardless, but do you think if Kim Ng wins a world series in Miami it would spur other teams to broaden their candidate pool for GM?
Meg Rowley
4:16
No? I don't think anyone doubted Kim's ability to positively affect a team's chances of winning before now. I mean, maybe some people did, her resume was pretty damn august. I don't think if Miami wins the World Series, the institutional barriers that impeded her hiring fall away.
Ben
4:16
Hi Meg, do you know why there is still no Kohei Arihara player page and when we can expect him to be added to the Rangers' depth chart? Thanks!
Meg Rowley
4:17
Generally these gaps are the result of the guy not having game stats in affiliated ball yet but he has a roster spot and MLB page, so I think we should have it by now. I'll follow up!
Tom
4:17
To what extent do you think we see fans in the stands on opening day?
Meg Rowley
4:19
To an extent that makes me pretty uncomfortable given persistent community spread and where our vaccination numbers are? I think there will definitely be teams that allow reduced capacity using pod seating. I hope that's enough to keep everyone safe, but I continue to worry about what happens when folks get up to get a beer or go to the bathroom or just leave when the game is done.
Guest
4:19
Why do you seem to think that every free agent gets paid less than he's "worth"? By definition isn't he worth what the market will pay him? Unless you want to define worth as the additional revenue he will bring to his team? But I don't actually think that definition helps your point, because I would guess that all players are paid more than they generate in marginal revenue, given the economic structure of MLB and how owners can make money without winning.
Meg Rowley
4:22
Dollars per WAR isn't the be-all, end-all, and there's more even to that than simply multiplying this stuff out, but in the cases where I think a contract is light, when you look at the on-field value they generate and compare it to what that production should fetch in the open market, there's often a gap
Justin Turner
4:22
What exactly am I doing? Spring training starts next week and I still don’t have a team.
Meg Rowley
4:23
Likely trying to get as much as you can by entertaining a market that is more than just the Dodgers?
I expect you end up back there.
Bocephus
4:24
Hello Meg, quick question. Nelson Cruz has a negative defense war in 2020 but didn't play defense. Can you help me understand. I appreciate the work you and your team do.
Meg Rowley
4:25
We apply a positional adjustment there https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/
Curtis
4:27
Who will lead the Mariners in WAR in 2021?
Meg Rowley
4:27
Marco Gonzales
JN
4:27
Corbin Burnes and Randy Arozarena are both available to draft in my dynasty league (we skipped the 2020 season). Who would you take between those two?
Meg Rowley
4:28
Allow this to be my once-a-chat reminder to ask fantasy questions to our Roto staff as they know a lot about fantasy baseball and I know how to forget to set your lineup so many weeks in a row that one of your grad school best friends asks you, very nicely, if you wouldn't rather not play.
Samwise
4:28
Jay's article on Ozuna included a fact meant to denigrate Bauer that was way overqualified and misleading, not too mention factually wrong. A commenter pointed this out, and you corrected the factually wrong part of it, but left in the intentionally misleading statement. It's one thing to say "On one hand, Bauer is an asshole, but on the other hand this is why he's valued the way he is", with the latter part being a necessary part of any transaction analysis. But if your (and Jay's) dislike for a player is so great that you can no longer provide your readers with accurate information (both factually and in spirit), that is a real problem. Readers shouldn't need to fact check every article knowing they could be getting mislead. It's insulting to your readers, some of us who are paying members (at least until my subscription runs out), and since it seems you no longer/never cared about that, at least consider how insulting it is to your fellow journalists who are out of work that would never make such a mistake
More on Jay's intentionally misleading Bauer comment: Also, you are actively turning away people who would otherwise agree with you (I agree! I think Bauer's a jerk!) but have a strong distaste for misinformation
Meg Rowley
4:30
Jay didn't say anything about Bauer's personality or off-field behavior in that piece. You are correct to say that he made a small factual error with regards to Bauer's FIP, which he then corrected, but the comparison was meant to serve as something of a thought experiment on turning one dynamite pandemic-shortened season into a big contract.
4:31
We have discussed Bauer's behavior within the context of his signing because it's a relevant aspect of his public persona (and clearly one he's comfortable putting on record as all of this stuff occurs on a public forum), but didn't in this case.
4:32
We try very hard to get these details right, and to update them when someone points out an error. I'm sorry I didn't catch that in editing the piece, and hope that clarifies things.
Shohei The Money
4:32
What do you think of Ohtani's chances of becoming a simultaneous star in pitching and hitting?  Both given his injury history and also given the general difficulty in doing so, what do you think are the chances that he'll have to give it up and just focus on one instead?
Appa Yip Yip
4:35
Are you excited to be reminded of how quickly spring training gets boring? I am.
Meg Rowley
4:35
Wildly excited!
4:36
I don't know how advisable it is to be doing any of this from a public health perspective, but selfishly having more predictability in my professional life is a thing I am very much looking forward to.
Mad Joe-Don
4:37
What if, instead of making the ball less bouncy they made the pitcher's mound more bouncy?
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