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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat - 2/10/2021
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Meg Rowley
4:37
See now we're cooking with gas.
Guest
4:37
Great song reference in the subhead! Sometimes how I feel when a chat ends before I can think of a question...what were the words I meant to say before she left?
Meg Rowley
4:37
I am so glad to learn the target audience for that was not in fact zero!
Isolated Thinker
4:39
Besides the fact that the players want it (spite), is there any other reason the owners wouldn't want the universal DH?  I would think pitchers' health/less chance of injury would outweigh any money-related reason.
Meg Rowley
4:40
I don't know if I would characterize it as spite, but it clearly being thought of as an economic question (which honestly, it made more sense as last year, too but) and so is not going to be given away for free, even if teams want it and it isn't as valuable as expanded playoffs.
Marc
4:41
Just a heads up, I love dark mode, but it's basically impossible  to read prospect write-ups on THE BOARD. Thanks for all the work to make Fangraphs more user-friendly!
Meg Rowley
4:41
Oh interesting - what browser are you using? They look good to me in Chrome.
F**k12
4:43
How do you feel about the mets keeping Nimmo in center? Clearly he's terrible but his bat is so good  he's a top 10 Center fielder according to war, is there's poo t where it doesn't matter how bad your bar is of you can hit enough?
Meg Rowley
4:45
I think he's still a valuable player but it's prettttttty tough to have such a huge liability at a premium position and it has downstream effects on the rest of the roster, so they should probably upgrade there, and more than Almora. Think Jay's piece on this is good reading: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/greener-pastures-for-albert-almora-jr-and-...
Mark
4:45
Can there be any defense of the bottom of 3 payrolls? Sub-NHL payroll figures from a 2021 MLB club doesn't seem right.
Meg Rowley
4:46
I think there are times when a club truly isn't going to compete and dipping down for a bit while it rebuilds the farm and gets its ducks in a row is defensible but only if that money eventually gets reinvested in the team.
Samwise
4:48
More on Jay's Bauer piece: I know he didn't say anything about his personality. That's the point. If he had said Bauer's a jerk but this is the case for him getting this contract, that's fine. The 'factual' error also isn't the point. Go read the quote again, and the comment again, if you forget. It was misleading in spirit, because of the way he sliced and diced the data. You know that citing batter vs. pitcher matchups are stupid, or someone's performance in 3 PM games. You know the way he sliced the data was deliberately obtuse. And you're being deliberately obtuse in the way you've responded.
Meg Rowley
4:49
I promise I'm not. If you don't find the thought experiment compelling, or thought it could have been more clearly stated, that's a totally reasonable view but I think you're reading more into a minor error that was corrected than is really warranted. The truth is that Bauer has had a few good years punctuate by his best coming in a pandemic shortened campaign and got a lot of money, where Ozuna got comparatively less. That's interesting.
Ohtani
4:50
Hey Meg, you published a question about Ohtani, but then didn't answer it and published/answered another question immediately afterward.  Might have been a mis-click but thought I'd mention it!
Meg Rowley
4:51
It was not! Thank you! I think it is going to be difficult at this point even if I really, really would like him to. It's already an extremely difficult thing to pull off with good health and he hasn't been able to maintain that.
jsolid
4:52
Im wondering about the likelihood of a strike/lockout with the looming CBA negotiations. there have been so many contentious areas - service time manipulation, de facto salary cap, the seeming squeeze on player salaries [even before the pandemic, which exacerbated it]. thoughts?
Meg Rowley
4:53
That I'm pretty concerned we'll have some sort of stoppage, though I also wonder how two years of potentially diminished revenues will affect either side, but particularly the players', ability to sustain such a stoppage.
LLW
4:54
Do you have a better MLB themed valentine's day pun than "I Shin-Soo Choo-Choo-Choose You"?
Meg Rowley
4:54
Ugh no but now I'm going to be thinking about this for the rest of the day.
JN
4:57
Any chance the Dodgers would trade Kenley’s 20 mil or so to counteract the Bauer signing and being over the luxury tax limit?
Meg Rowley
4:58
I'm guessing no only because I don't think they're done adding - the number they're likely concerned with now is not going $40 million (I think it's $40 million) over and triggering draft pick penalties.
Ohtani
4:58
Less than whether Ohtani can be a two-way star, can he even be good one-way? He's been fine as a hitter. Just fine. And as a pitcher, he looks like you could count on him for about 20 IP. Is he closer to being a two-way stud or out of the league altogether?
Meg Rowley
4:58
I think the bat will improve with good health and (I'm sorry, I'm trying to delete it, I'm sorry) a settled role.
Some Guy
4:59
What are your expectations of Kyle Lewis going forward? Is he a 120+ wRC+ guy like he has been in his limited major league career or a ~90 wRC+ like ZIPs/Steamer projects?
Meg Rowley
4:59
I think he likely settles in around 115? Now, it's possible he's just a dude who runs unusually high BABIPs, but even then, probably not this unusually high.
Rob K
5:00
Another day, another projection system that thinks the Mets could win the east. As a Mets fan, it just doesn’t feel right. I guess I don’t have a question
Meg Rowley
5:00
There is (probably) going to be a time when the Mariners are projected to, if not win the division, be good again, and when that moment comes, I imagine I'll find your experience to be very relatable.
TKDC
5:01
What is the more likely settled role for Ohtani? Supposedly he would be a plus right fielder (obviously a great arm) if that were his full time role and it just seems unlikely he can do the two-way thing as well.
Meg Rowley
5:01
Sorry, just meant that the two-way question had been settled.
Dee Arby
5:02
Be My Bobby Valentine
Meg Rowley
5:02
This is pretty good!
Marc
5:02
Thanks for answering Meg- I'm using Edge, but I'll check out the BOARD on Chrome to see if it's any better
Meg Rowley
5:02
Interesting - I know one of our staff members does too and he says it loads fine for him.
5:03
Can you describe the problem further and I'll follow up with Sean? I appreciate the heads up!
TKDC
5:04
MLB was pretty lucky in the playoffs that only one truly mediocre team won the first round (Marlins) and they got trounced in the second round. Do you believe in “playoffs are a crapshoot” and if they keep 16 team playoffs a World Series between ~.500 teams is inevitable?
Meg Rowley
5:05
I suppose it depends on just how many just-ok teams make it in - I still think the arch of a multi-round playoff bends toward better teams advancing on average, but upping the risk at all seems bad
Dee Arby
5:06
what would you recommend to improve the entertainment between innings during games? There are some classics like The Freeze, the Phanatic, Hot Dog races, but if you ever been to a Marlins game, there is quite literally nothing basebally done between innings, just fan cams which is too silly.  Why is anyone excited to be on a giant tv?
Meg Rowley
5:07
I find the human instinct to be reallllllly pumped at a 40 foot version of yourself to be weirdly charming. It seems to be so universal! Is this part of our DNA? HI MOM! People have no plan other than waving! It's the best.
But in answer to your question, I think it is totally fine for the time between innings to just be punctuated by good music and a pitcher warming up.
5:08
And so I suppose my response is: hire good DJs?
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