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MLBTR 2022-23 Offseason Chat: Minnesota Twins
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Dave Dombrowski
3:27
When can we expect the free agent predictions list
Steve Adams
3:28
We always publish it after we know which players receive qualifying offers. That does make us a bit later to the party than some of the other lists out there, but the QO is so critical to forecasting contracts and destinations that it's a worthwhile trade-off, in our minds.
For most borderline QO candidates, we have "if he receives a QO" and "if he doesn't get the QO" predictions
55987
3:28
Does a Kepler trade bring back a “meaningful” bullpen piece ? Thanks
Steve Adams
3:29
Yeah I think Kepler can bring back a decent reliever. You're not getting like... Felix Bautista for him. But a useful big league reliever? Sure
Ryan Jeffers
3:29
Am I truly a starting Back Stop, or do I need to accept a backup role?
Steve Adams
3:31
Derek Falvey has gone on record to say that there won't be a standard starter/backup split of the workload. I think the Twins will lean toward playing Jeffers more against lefties and adding someone who can play more regularly against RHP, but it'll be more like a 60-40 split than a pure starter/backup  setup
Who that catcher is will be fascinating. Sean Murphy and Danny Jansen will be available in trade. Omar Narvaez is a decent enough buy-low option. The Twins are a fun dark-horse candidate for Contreras, though.
Guest
3:32
What are your thoughts on the Twins pursuing Jose Abreu? Sounds like he’s a good clubhouse guy and he still has pop in his bat, could fill in nicely at 1B/DH.
Steve Adams
3:33
I think this more closely aligns with the Twins' tendencies than going after Josh Bell. The front office tends to prefer shorter-term deals, and they can give Abreu plenty of time between 1B and DH while limiting the contract to two years at a premium AAV. Bell probably needs a minimum of three years, and Boras will be pushing for four.
Evan B
3:33
Jose Miranda, what position does he play in the future? 1st, 3rd, DH?
Steve Adams
3:36
Even the Twins don't have the answer to that right now. It'll be dependent on whether someone comes at them with an offer to their liking for Gio Urshela. It'll depend on what the 1B/DH market holds. If Abreu is out there for a price to their liking, for instance, I can see that being quite appealing -- as I just said in the previous answer. Hell, it'll depend to an extent on what type of pitcher they might be able to get if they include Miranda in trade talks.

So long as he's not packaged in return for a starting pitcher -- and I don't think they're particularly anxious to do that -- he'll be in the lineup at one of those three spots. But modern teams don't really box themselves in by thinking "this guy HAS to be at this position" if they feel comfortable in his ability to play multiple spots, and the Twins are very much in the mold of team that won't set such restrictions on themselves.
Al
3:36
Does anyone have eyes on Correa?
Steve Adams
3:37
Yeah they'll have competition from the Giants, Dodgers, Mariners, Braves, Phillies, Angels and probably a few others
Cris E
3:37
What's the future look like for Arreaz? He's not a great 2b or 3b, he's had some leg problems and he might be fighting Kirriloff or Miranda at 1b. Trade him?
Steve Adams
3:38
He got 600 PAs playing three positions (plus DH) this season, and I imagine that'll be the plan moving forward. He doesn't need to be slotted in at one specific position.
Frieda
3:38
What happened to Austin Martin?
Steve Adams
3:41
He's had wrist injuries that have cut into his power. The K-BB profile is still great, he's running more (and more effectively) than they probably could've hoped for. He's hitting well in the fall league, although the AFL tends to draw more top hitting prospects than top pitching prospects. If he comes out in 2023 hitting for more power in the minors with the wrist looking healthier, the opinion on him will come back around. If he's still not hitting for power, he'll be one of the many, many top prospects whose stock just fades. It happens -- though it sucks for Twins fans given that he was the centerpiece of the Berrios return.
the bell tolls
3:41
Is Kenta Maeda going to be healthy next year did he have Tommy John?
Steve Adams
3:42
He had Tommy John a year ago and is expected to be ready to go in 2023, yes. I wouldn't pencil him back in for 30 starts and 180 innings, though -- not coming off TJS and a layoff this long.
benhen77
3:42
Is there room on the roster for a starter-quality backup for CF, to play a corner spot when Buxton is healthy? Thinking a Joc Pederson type... (Trade Kepler?)
Steve Adams
3:44
There is, but it's not Joc Pederson. Joc is a platoon guy who was one of the worst defensive corner OFs in baseball last season. Kepler's a better fit in that role you described than Joc; Kepler at least can legitimately handle center.

The free-agent market doesn't have a great option whose skill set fits the one you laid out, so it'd need to come via trade. Ramon Laureano, perhaps? Depends whether Oakland would sell low on him.
Daniel
3:44
Any idea as to when we'll start seeing moves in free agency for the Twins to sign anybody?
Steve Adams
3:44
Teams still can't even negotiate with any free agents other than their own guys
3:46
MLB free agency is a slow crawl -- not like NFL or NBA free agency. There'll be a few early signings next week, and a handful of moves in late November leading up to the Winter Meetings chaos in from Dec. 4-7. Following that, it'll be slow again -- for a good while.

MLB free agency lacks the frenetic chaos of the other major sports, but I enjoy that you're liable to see an out-of-nowhere splash at any moment over a span of like 4.5 months
Daniel
3:46
What is the status of Chris Paddocks recovery so far and when do you think he'll be ready to pitch next season if ever?
Steve Adams
3:47
No indication it's going slower or more poorly than expected. I would imagine he'll be an option mid-summer next year, yeah.
Mark
3:47
What will it take for Buxton to be healthy for 140+ games
Steve Adams
3:47
If I had the answer to that question, the Twins would be paying me a seven-figure salary, haha.
Myles
3:48
Don’t feel one way or another about the Twins really, but will the baseball gods ever grant us one full, healthy Byron Buxton clicking on all cylinders season? Only asking for one. There isn’t a more exciting player to watch as far as I’m concerned. What do you think the numbers would look like for Buxton in a season like that? 30-50 HR/SB? More? What kind of line?
Steve Adams
3:49
He hit 28 homers in 92 games this year, so 30 homers is a given if he ever gets into 140-150 games. I wouldn't hold out hope for 50+ steals ever, even if he is fully healthy. The Twins have taken to cutting down on his stolen-base attempts to help keep him on the field more. Obviously that didn't work in '22, but I don't think they'll ever just cut him loose. His value on the bases will be more beating out infield hits, taking the extra base, scoring from first on a ball in the gap, etc.
Falvey
3:50
Would a Kepler, SWR, Austin Martin, Aaron Sobato net us Sandy Alacontra?
Steve Adams
3:50
The Marlins aren't trading Alcantara, but even if they were, that package wouldn't be in the ballpark
Gary
3:51
What's your guess on the type of contract the Twins would legitimately offer Correa? Will they be in the ballpark of what he's looking for?
Steve Adams
3:54
They just paid him $35.1MM for one year and were willing to commit $105.3MM over three years if all hell broke loose following that signing. It's been nearly 15 years since they committed $184MM to Joe Mauer, and payroll has moved forward quite a bit since.

I don't know that they'll put forth the $300MM-ish he's probably still seeking, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if they were willing to do a "shorter" deal (seven to eight years) at a big AAV with another opt-out at some point (say, before Correa's age-31 season or something).

They got pretty creative with the Buxton extension, too, and adding in some insane incentives to a framework like that to boost Correa's AAV in his best seasons would be one potential pitch to him. I still have a hard time seeing Correa back in MN, but I do think there's genuine want on both sides to make something work. (I also just think someone will make it too hard for Correa to say no)
JeffyM
3:54
Should the twins try and extend Arráez, or flip him while his value is high?
Steve Adams
3:55
Doesn't have to be one or the other. Extending Arraez would obviously be a positive for them, but he's controlled through 2025. They don't need to trade him if they can't extend him.
Cris E
3:55
Doesn't Xander Boergerts  make a good deal of sense for MN? He'll only play SS for a couple years, in time for Lewis, Lee, Martin, Miller or someone else to take over.
Steve Adams
3:57
Yeah, Bogaerts is a good fit. In general, I don't think any team should be shying away from someone like Correa or Bogaerts because they have a Brooks Lee or whoever who might be an everyday option at shortstop two years from now. Even someone close to MLB-ready like Royce Lewis. If Lewis forces the issue and proves he can hit, he can play another position. Most shortstops are athletic enough to play multiple positions, and if you have the chance to add a special player right now at a price you feel is sensible, do it.
twins
3:57
Do you see anything positive from Balazovic or is it safe to forget about him unless something drastically changes?
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