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MLBTR Chat: 10/19/22
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BlueJayCrazy
6:55
Does Ross Stripling resign in Toronto? What moves do you see this off-season for us?
Anthony Franco
6:56
Could see Stripling returning on a two or even three year deal, sure
6:57
I think they'll look to deal one of Hernández or Gurriel. Could listen to offers on the catchers (Jansen in particular) if it netted them some controllable starting pitching help
6:58
They'll also try to get extensions done with Vlad, Bichette and/or Manoah obviously, but who knows if those players are interested in signing away free agent years at this point
Joe
6:58
Do you think we will ever see a team hand out one of these mega deals front loaded?
Anthony Franco
7:00
Hmm, that's an interesting one. There's a lot of incentive for teams to backload them -- future money is less valuable than current money because of inflation, it leaves space for other additions to the immediate roster
7:01
What cuts against it a bit is a new provision in the CBA that says that a player's luxury tax hit is recalculated after he's traded to encompass only what remains on the deal at the time of the trade. So if you backload a deal and try to trade a player a few years in, it's a tougher sell for other teams that'd be absorbing a heftier CBT hit
7:02
So while I still don't know about frontloading a mega free agent contract, I do think we'll see more early-career extensions that are balanced or front-loaded, as the Pirates/Ke'Bryan Hayes deal was
Liz
7:02
I'm curious about the likelihood of the Red Sox making a serious offer to Vazquez, considering it sounds like he's willing to re-sign. A local writer floated the idea that his poor performance with the Astros might actually make his market less competitive & a Sox reunion more likely ... maybe it's wishful thinking but I'm hesitant about relying on Wong/McGuire for a full season and not having a proven everyday guy.
Anthony Franco
7:03
Yeah I'm skeptical on that. They could've extended Vázquez before trading him if they wanted to ensure he'd be around. Think they like Wong/McGuire enough he'll find a better opportunity elsewhere
7:04
The free agent catching market is also terrible after him and Contreras, so I don't think Vázquez's part-time struggles in Houston will have that significant an effect on his market
ookla the mok
7:04
Do you see the Phillies sticking w/ Stott at ss @2023 or do you assume they'll grab one of the big4...
Anthony Franco
7:05
Doubt they'll want to take on another huge position player contract. The long-term books are already pretty cluttered, and they'll have to address the rotation as well
Nimmo
7:05
What does my contract look like? 5/90?
Anthony Franco
7:06
I've tried to push for him at 5/115 in deliberations with Tim and Steve. Tim's at 5/100, Steve's with you in the 90-ish range I believe
chunkyshark
7:06
What does a Devers extension look like? Given that MLBTR forecasts his last arb year at 16.7MM.
Anthony Franco
7:07
Yeah at this point you're basically comparing him to free agent deals. He's going to be 27 as a first-time FA, maybe doesn't have the body type that gets him a ten-year deal but could see him at eight or nine over $35MM+ annually
7:09
If you pencil in 17 for his final arb year, he needs a $35.375MM AAV over eight free agent seasons to get to $300MM guarantee. That seems like a viable ask for him to forego an open market bidding
Mateo
7:10
Do the Orioles keep me around?
Anthony Franco
7:10
He'll certainly be on the roster, do not think he should be guaranteed the primary shortstop job
WK
7:10
With the money the Braves have committed already and with them at least going to try and re-sign Swanson, how credible are the DeGrom to Atlanta rumors if he opts out?
Anthony Franco
7:11
Yeah I don't love it as a fit for the reasons you mentioned. The payroll's pretty hefty already, deGrom should top $40MM annually
7:12
I know it's been speculated a lot because of the Southeast geography stuff, but it doesn't strike me as the kind of deal Atlanta's in a great position to make
John
7:12
Is Taillon and Lorenzon too much to ask the Orioles to get this offseason?
Anthony Franco
7:12
Nah, if anything I think they should aim a little higher than Lorenzen as the second starter they bring in
Guest
7:12
Do the Guardians go after Sean Murphy  or Resign Hedges???
Anthony Franco
7:14
Doesn't have to be either/or. There's a huge difference between those two, both in their talent levels and in the acquisition cost. As with St. Louis, I think Cleveland's a very strong fit for Murphy. They also have a stockpile of upper level position player talent and could use some certainty at catcher long-term, even with Bo Naylor having made his debut
But if they balk at the price, signing Vázquez or trading for Danny Jansen would still be significantly better than bringing back Hedges
Mo Money Mozeliak
7:15
Does Abreu get a QO? And if not could you see the Cards getting him for DH?
Anthony Franco
7:16
He's already received a QO so he can't get one. I think the Cardinals have enough DH options they won't want to drop something like $20MM annually for Abreu
Edman
7:16
Who plays SS for the Cardinals next year?
Anthony Franco
7:16
Edman
Sandy
7:16
Am I going to win the Cy-Young? How do you think it will pay out?
Anthony Franco
7:16
He'll coast to the Cy Young. I think there's a cogent argument for him to get legitimate MVP support
7:17
He won't, since that award usually goes to position players and/or players on good teams. But if you just take the position that the MVP should go to the best player in the league in any given year, should at least consider Alcantara in that discussion
jean segura
7:18
hey, where do you see me going?
Anthony Franco
7:19
White Sox jump out as a fit. Angels work, Philadelphia could try to bring him back for cheaper after declining the option
7:20
Seattle makes sense on paper but I'm guessing that ship has sailed, Boston perhaps
Kramer
7:21
Clearly there is something to momentum carrying from the wildcard round. But do we really want this percentage of underdogs winning series'? I don't. Will anything be tweaked?
Anthony Franco
7:21
Disagree with the premise. One year's much too small of a sample for me to draw any firm conclusions about the playoff format
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