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MLBTR Chat: 9/29/22
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Hazen
6:27
How much negative regression from the likes of Gallen/Kelly should I expect in 2023? Are we legit contenders or still a year of development for Thomas/Carroll/Lawlar away?
Anthony Franco
6:27
(D-Backs)
6:28
Merrill probably takes a little step back. I think Gallen just is an ace at this point. So long as he stays healthy, a sub-3.00 season with a 27% strikeout rate feels well within reason
6:30
They're a bit in the Rangers mold I just referenced. A number of interesting position players, a couple high-end starting pitchers but limited back-of-the-rotation depth and a bad bullpen. I've got more faith in Texas to spend to address the holes on the roster than I do in Arizona though
Dirt
6:30
Thanks for the chat. Do you think the Braves and Dansby learned lessons from Freddie's FA experience? Odds on re-signing?
Anthony Franco
6:30
I don't think Freeman's situation has much of an effect on Dansby but do expect he'll eventually re-sign, yeah
Dopt
6:31
BWJ not in top3 for ROY? He sis 20/30 guy.  His BA and team knock him down?
Anthony Franco
6:32
The AL field is incredible this year, can't fit him over the top three. If you want him above Kirby or Pena in the 4/5 spots, I think that's totally fair
Tony
6:33
Can we expect any big A's moves this offseason?
Anthony Franco
6:34
Depends on what you mean, I guess. Don't expect a free agent spending spree or anything, but they somehow have zero guaranteed commitments on the books and a pretty soft arb class. They'll have to add a few third-tier free agents who are better than Vogt and Lowrie, at least
6:36
They also have the flexibility (wouldn't say luxury's the right word) to add pretty much anywhere other than catcher because the only guys who really have jobs locked down are Laureano, Seth Brown, Irvin, Blackburn and Murphy. Murphy could very well still get traded too
Bronxie
6:36
Assuming Judge re-signs, do you see the Yanks also re-signing Benintendi? They seem to have a bloated roster filled with guys on the decline or destined to be role-player types. At least one of Hicks, Donaldson, and IKF have to be gone, given all of the young guys knocking on the door, right?
Anthony Franco
6:37
I think they'll let Benintendi walk regardless of whether they keep Judge around. Don't have to get rid of IKF, can just kick him back into a utility role and turn to Peraza
6:38
I do expect them to look for ways to move Donaldson. I'm sure they'll try to find a taker for Hicks too but it's going to be tough to get anyone to bite there
John
6:38
What are your thoughts on Correas situation? Does he opt out or stay? It seems like nobody has a clue
Anthony Franco
6:39
I think he's basically certain to opt out, for the reasons Steve explored a couple days ago
Steve Balboni's Sandwhich
6:39
Matt Olson has been mildly disappointing this season (compared to previous performances in a worse hitting ballpark). Is this new league/team adjustment or is this what should be expected going forward?
Anthony Franco
6:41
Yeah this is a good question. He's just swinging and missing more often than he did his final season in Oakland, largely because he's chasing more pitches out of the strike zone
6:42
That's obviously not ideal but it's not like he's physically declining and he's only 28. Still expect him to bounce back, feels like he just got in a slump recently and has started pressing a bit
dakota mckee
6:42
What factors, if any, could bring back 200-inning pitchers? More successes like Alcantara? One more year away from pandemic? High cost of premium SP?
Anthony Franco
6:43
I think this only really happens if they continue to change the rules to incentivize less roster turnover. Further limits on number of times a player can be optioned in a season, 12 pitchers instead of 13, etc.
Anthony "Wander" Franco
6:43
How long will the Padres be competitive for? I know they have a bunch of talented players on the roster but they're gonna face a payroll crunch soon. They also haven't been very successful in developing players, especially starting pitchers. How long would it take for the wheels to come off if they can't improve player development?
Anthony Franco
6:45
Yeah it's a reasonable question but there's probably too much talent on the roster for them not to be at least Wild Card competitors for the next couple years. Soto, Machado, Musgrove and theoretically Tatis is a hell of a starting point for the next couple seasons
6:46
They've thinned the farm system out and the payroll is getting up there a bit, although the number of starting pitchers they have coming off the books over the next two seasons (Clevinger, Manaea after this year; Darvish, Snell after '23) opens that up
6:47
Obviously it also means they'll have to backfill the rotation but I don't see them being on the verge of a cliff, so much as they're just content with a roster that's going to be a bit top-heavy and means they'll eventually have to hit on some lower-cost rotation adds
6:48
Alright we're past 75 minutes now so I have to run
Lot of good questions today, apologies for all the stuff I couldn't address
If you want to throw anything me on Twitter @affranco10, I'll get back to you there within the next couple days
6:49
I also run a chat every Friday exclusive to Front Office subscribers where you're very likely to get the question answered with how small the queue is
6:50
Front Office memberships also get you weekly analysis posts from Steve and myself, as well as fantasy-themed stuff from Brad. I wrote about this year's center field market earlier this week and believe Steve's planning a look at the Brewers arb class
If those are of any interest to anyone, you can find more about it here
6:51
We'll do this again next week, have a good night!
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