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MLBTR Front Office fantasy baseball chat with Brad Johnson: 6/27/22
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Bert
12:51
Mets. Over/ Under 100 wins?
Brad Johnson
12:52
Under. #LOLMets stands until proven otherwise. As of today, I still predict they miss the playoffs on the last day of the season.
Lloyd
12:52
Hi Brad, thanks for your chats—always worthwhile!  In 15-team leagues where you’re targeting middle relievers for help with ratios, what do you consider in identifying targets?  (Surface stats don’t seem very useful.) K-BB%? IP? an ERA estiamtor? Or???
Brad Johnson
12:53
K%-BB% is the main stat I use to identify candidates. Then I'll review them more closely.
Jay
12:53
At what point is a slow first half a slump or a sign that a player isn't good? Jose Ramirez slashed .218/.308/.304 pre-All Star break in 2019, and in my keeper league I was rewarded for holding onto him through all of that. But more often I find myself in August wondering why I didn't drop a guy in May. How do you know when a slump is just a slump?
Brad Johnson
12:54
I try to look for indications of a change. And that can mean dozens of different things depending on the player/profile type.
12:55
The longer I do this, the better I get at building different profiles for comparative purposes. But this is very much a mental process for me. I can't get most of it to work on a spreadsheet in any objective sense. It's hard for me to make recommendations off of my subjective observations. I do my best with it.
Max Muncy
12:55
Do you see Max Muncy making a turnaround similar to what Grandal did last year?
Brad Johnson
12:56
The wild card with Muncy is his elbow and if/how much that's influenced his play.
Because, otherwise, I don't see much cause for concern.
12:57
Historically, he's hit worst when his BB% is highest. I think he's on the cusp of a rebound.
Roster Construction
12:57
Thanks for the advice! This is a great chat.
Brad Johnson
12:57
Thank you!
12:58
Time to start wrapping up unfortunately. 2 more questions in the queue if you want to sneak in a buzzer beater
Josh
12:58
H2H categories league (with OPS), would you trade Nick Castellanos for Corey Seager? Both have been very disappointing so I don't know how to evaluate
Brad Johnson
12:58
Yes, in a heartbeat. I still like them both, but Seager's playing a lot better
Don
12:58
Trade dumping for the next season is one of those challenging scenarios to find a balance between free will and preserving the importance of the draft.   Have you heard of any effective approaches to managing heavily lopsided dump trades that are not collusion?
Brad Johnson
1:00
The best I've come up with is to allow trades to be revoked within 24 hours by either party. That means the "I would have offered more" complainers have to put up or shut up.
You have to apply a penalty to using it though. In the league I run, you can't trade the same players again for a period of time (depends on when in the calendar it happens).
Bocephus
1:01
How do you address player trades? For instance, say Mike Rizzo decides to trade Soto to the A's. Soto moves from a hitter-friendly environment to an extreme pitchers park. There's liable to be some regression, as a pitcher like Montas going from that environment to say Wrigley or another hitter friendly environment. How does that affect you as a fantasy owner that has one of these players, or does it?
Along the same lines as my previous question: which trade deadline players do you see as being picked up in fantasy because of a change in scenery and which ones can you see unloading if they are traded?
Brad Johnson
1:02
I generally think change of venue analysis is overblown. I'm more concerned about lineups and supporting staff tbh.
Kyle Gibson has pitched fine for Philly, but he went from an OK defense to a terrible one which isn't ideal for a GB guy.
1:03
Corey Seager left an elite offense that benefited from extreme network effects to a mid-tier offense with a neutral network
(network effect re: lineups basically refers to how the unit as a whole wears out opposing SP and bullpens)
Coors is an obvious exception
1:04
Montas is a guy to watch where he lands. Tyler Mahle has always struggled at home. Could be an arrow-up guy if he's dealt.
EddieB
1:04
Need a 2B.  Lux, Donovan, Muncy, Estrada, Merrifield are available
Brad Johnson
1:05
Muncy and Merrifield feel like the obvious choices based on category need. Clearly, though, this is a shallow league. Any reason to not stream based on matchup?
Hitter streaming is far more effective than pitcher streaming.
Between those five guys, you should be able to cobble together a 5-cat monster.
1:06
And on that note, I'm out of questions to answer. Thanks for playing. See ya on the main site for Fourth of July. (maybe, we'll see!)
Javy
1:06
Do you think Javvy Baez ends the year about where we thought he would?
Brad Johnson
1:07
Buzzer beater. Probably not. Somewhat lesser.
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