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MLBTR Front Office Fantasy Baseball Chat with Brad Johnson: 7/26/22
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Brad Johnson
12:20
I mean, he should have a long leash. They need to evaluate him in the second half here so they can decide to write him into their plans or proceed with him as a bench bat. It's not like he's blocked.
Besides routine rest and injuries, I don't see any reason for the Tigers to sit him.
Clarence Odbody
12:21
Im in. 5x5 AL only Keeper league with minors reserve.  I’m talking trade with some people out of the running. Who do you value more (both at the same price): Andrew Vaughn (with one more year left on the contract) or Jose Miranda (with two more years left on the contract)?  What’s the near-term future hold for those two?
Brad Johnson
12:21
Those are two players who, if you squint, could produce pretty similar numbers if given identical opportunities.
12:23
The problem is Miranda is viewed as more of a complementary piece due to his lack of defensive home. Seems like he's OK as a 1B, but he's nobody's ideal 1B prospect.
Vaughn isn't a ton better - a little more hit tool and pop, some potential to re-develop discipline.
12:24
But he has the pedigree on his side. I'm inclined to prefer Vaughn on the shorter deal. It's a coin flip bet imo.
Blank Frank
12:24
Best guess of Dodger rotation come Sept.?
Brad Johnson
12:26
More or less what it is now. I think we all assume they'll add one starter just because they can afford to, but that'll come down to other trades too. Their farm system isn't actually as deep as people think. So if they bring off a Soto trade or even just make a lesser upgrade on the offensive side, they might prefer sticking with White/Heaney as their fifth SP.
I'm sure they'll be in on Castillo and Montas.
12:27
And the other four are Kershaw, Urias, Anderson, and Gonsolin. Another reliable RHP might be nice since Anderson has recent experience as a bulk reliever too.
Guest
12:27
Do the Mets go all out for Contreras or lust settle for a pure righty DH?
Brad Johnson
12:28
Signs point to them overcommitting somewhere. I wouldn't be looking at Major additions if I were them. I'd be more focused on Nelson Cruz types. Robbie Grossman. Players who should cost nothing and could be revived by a competitive atmosphere.
Jeremy
12:29
Deeper league with standard categories, one of the following is a starter, 2 are bench and I need to drop 2. Please help!!!!! Ceasar Hernandez, Chad Pinder, Jake Meyers, Laureano, Eddie Rosario. Thanks!
Brad Johnson
12:30
If position is no object, then I'd cut Hernandez and Pinder.
The others have more potential for temporary excellence.
Taijuan Walker
12:30
He seems to be pitching better than his career numbers.  Change in repertoire?  Expect regression in the second half?  What's going on with him?  Thanks.
Brad Johnson
12:32
Yea, so I think this is pretty simple actually. He introduced a splitter in 2020 and now it's practically his primary pitch. It's helping his below average fastball play up since hitters are swinging blind a little bit. He's probably also worked to get it all to tunnel a little more efficiently.
12:33
It's still pretty fair to expect regression.
Healthy Jacob deGrom might be the only pitcher around I expect to regularly post a 2.55 ERA or better.
12:34
Toss in his poor strikeout rate, and he's prone to bad sequencing luck.
potterjd
12:34
Trust is a key factor when deciding which pitchers to keep on my active roster.  All else being equal - that is, no significant changes in approach -- how many consecutive starts does a pitcher need to shine / stink in order to gain / lose trust in his ability to make a positive / negative difference in 5 x 5 standings?  Current examples are Taillon, Pivetta, Snell, McKenzie.
Brad Johnson
12:35
tbh, I don't relate with this mentality. It's a little bit alien to me. I wrote about this awhile ago. Luckily, I still have the bookmark - https://www.patreon.com/posts/players-arent-21821938
12:36
The takeaway from that piece (it's short), is to put your players in the best position to succeed subject to your constraints.
i.e. what you need, innings/GP caps, etc.
12:38
As for the specific guys you've named, I'm using Snell without reservation and the others are benched in certain circumstances - for instance, when at a small ballpark against an offense that thrives against their type
Hogjaz
12:38
Do you think Nolan Jones is worth picking up if you're hurting at 3B?
Brad Johnson
12:38
Yes, Nolan Jones is good, though all the usual rookie caveats apply.
12:39
He's kind of like if Max Muncy was a BABIP king but also didn't lift the ball. His power plays down between the lack of BIPs and too many GBs.
12:40
But he's also an OBP machine who should maintain a passable AVG too.
He's batting 6/7 right now, but should move up to 1/2 with another week or two of success.
Guest
12:40
Please tell me the Jays will only use Pearson in relief...
Brad Johnson
12:40
No insight into the Jays thinking on Pearson
12:41
I agree that ought to bring him back as a reliever first and let him grow into starting if that's meant to be. With Romano, he's less at risk of getting stuck like Roberto Osuna did.
Innings Workloads
12:42
Who are some high-impact starting pitchers whose workloads might be reduced in the second half?  Is Kyle Wright on that list?
Brad Johnson
12:43
Mostly look to non-contenders if you're worried about guys ending their seasons prematurely. Contenders might skip a start or two for a young guy, but they generally don't have the flexibility to baby their players too much.
So I'd be more worried about Roansy Contreras than Wright.
As an example.
If the Mariners drop a bunch in August, George Kirby probably sits down
12:44
The Marlins might cut it short on Pablo Lopez, he's strained his shoulder in the second half a few times.
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