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Jeffrey Todd

4:02

I mean, yeah, probably.

4:02

Would Arrieta accept a one year, $12MM deal with the Yankees and win now while proving himself again?

Jeffrey Todd

4:02

No.

4:03

There is zero evidence that Arrieta just has no market.

Ryan

4:03

I'm having a hard time with todays math. 1 WAR = $9.5 mil ish. Lynn is worth 2 WAR steadily for the 5 of last 6 yrs. How does he not get 4/60 mil is beyond me. He's not Cy Young, but geez. He consistently takes the ball and keeps you in games and wins more than he loses. What gives?

Jeffrey Todd

4:04

The $/WAR thing is too broad a stroke to be useful except for back of the napkin thinking. Even if you were to accept it, you're looking at anticipated WAR, not what's happened in the past alone, and in his case there are areas for concern.

4:06

W/r/t pitching usage, too, there's obviously a move away from just throwing your dude out there and getting what you can from him. Loads of high-velo young arms are filtering up, not all of which are capable of functioning as true starters, but some of which can give you 2 or 3 innings. Hence, the Rays model.

Not saying that's universal or anything, but you can see how the trends could end up with a devaluation of a Lynn type pitcher.

Hal

4:08

The Angels would hang up far quicker than the Padres in that hypothetical trade.

Jeffrey Todd

4:09

Don't fall in love too hard with your far-off prospects.

Fernando Tatis JR

4:09

Am I a better prospect than Ronald Acuna? How come I am not getting any love

Jeffrey Todd

4:09

Top-10 billing leaguewide is no love? He's getting love.

4:10

Every time I see Tatis or Shields mentioned I think of that trade. My goodness. Maybe Hal is right about the Angels not giving Adell for Hand.

Jeff J

4:11

Could you see Atlanta landing two big FA next year with all the money they will have?

Jeffrey Todd

4:11

Lots of other teams will have ample payroll space to work with, too.

4:12

Who knows, maybe this year's slow market will give way to a bonkers spending spree.

Jeffrey's Mother

4:12

Jeffrey, there's a David Stearns on the phone for you, says he needs to figure out what to do with Jesus Aguilar and was wondering if you had any ideas?

Jeffrey Todd

4:12

If someone makes an appealing offer now, you take it. If not, hold for depth during camp and get what you can in 2 weeks.

4:13

Okay, folks, I'll grab a few more before hanging up the line.

Charles Finley

4:14

So, by my rough count, Harper ($21MM), Murphy ($15MM), Adams ($4MM), Madson ($8MM), Wieters ($10MM), and Gio ($13MM)...am I correct that the Nats have something like $60-70MM coming off the books after 2018? If so, how insane is that and how might they distribute that money - mega-deal for Harper or a more balanced, fill-the-holes approach?

Jeffrey Todd

4:16

Better to just look at the future payroll and see where it stands than to think about what's "coming off the books," but generally, yes, they have lots of free payroll. Of course, that also means there are holes to be filled. Saw that with the Mets to an extent this winter. For the Nats, it'll be hard to get better values than they have from Harper and Murphy. Promises to be an interesting winter.

Mike

4:16

Why would the Astros give up and trade McHugh to the Rays? Who could they possibly get from the Rays?

Jeffrey Todd

4:17

The Rays just traded away Jake Odorizzi ... why would they want McHugh?

Not sure what will happen with him, but surely some of the teams weighing Lynn and Cobb would rather have McHugh at 1/5 or whatever it is he's owed.

Mike Hills

4:18

Are starting pitchers really that fragile in 2018 that asking them to go 7,8,9 IP is a thing of the past?

Jeffrey Todd

4:19

As hinted above, I really think it's at least in part a function of there being so many power arms filtering up. It just doesn't make sense to ask for that many innings except from a few select guys. (And then, perhaps not with too much frequency.)

Jake Arrieta

4:20

Will the Phillies just guarantee the 4th year already? Money-schmoney, it's all about that year.

Jeffrey Todd

4:20

To some extent ... but then again, I'm sure the Phils would rather 4/60 than 3/60.

(Made-up numbers, of course.)

Victor Robles

4:21

Am I starting Opening day?

Jeffrey Todd

4:23

No and it would be a mistake to do that. Taylor and Goodwin is a useful-enough platoon. They both showed enough last year to warrant time. Robles can finish off his development, the team can keep an eye on his service clock and maintain flexibility. Certainly wouldn't be surprising, though, if he's a major mid-season call-up.

Charles Finley

4:23

I did not know until just now that Nando Tatis Jr was acquired for James freakin' Shields. ZOMG

Jeffrey Todd

4:24

Nobody realizes it b/c at the time, Tatis wasn't a big prospect at all. But go look up that trade and think about how it was conceived and executed and how it turned out. That is why teams don't go trying to make deals early in the season.

Alain from Switzerland

4:27

hi, why are some many free agents waiting ? isnt it better to sign a contract with 1-2 less then exepted and be on a team now and prepare in the spring for a good saison ?

Jeffrey Todd

4:27

New country! Yes!

4:28

These guys are all working hard on their own. They might be delayed a bit if they don't sign until mid-March, but will still be available for most of the season. And as I suggested above, I think they would say: "Why should I be the one to settle for less? Why shouldn't the team fold and give me what I'm asking?"

Rob

4:28

worse contract pujols or heyward?

Jeffrey Todd

4:29

Well I'd rather have Heyward since he's still young.

And plays the outfield.

Matthew Klentak

4:29

I am not sure that 4/60 is better than 3/60. I want to keep payroll space in 2021 free for you know who.

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