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in Hazen we trust
3:36
shocked Miller got a guranteed contract?
Jeffrey Todd
3:36
No, he has a big arm and he's still young. Not much risk there.
3:37
By not much risk, I mean the 40-man spot and salary. Obviously there's a lot of risk in Shelby as a pitcher.
But just a $2MM guarantee? Why not -- could pretty easily be a bargain.
Justin
3:39
What is a reasonable package for bumgarner
Jeffrey Todd
3:39
Obviously can't answer this directly, b/c I can't give you specific names or anything, but I will try to do so more generally ...
3:40
Fact is, there are numerous red flags on MadBum despite his still-strong ERA over the past two seasons. Health, velo, important rate stats are not looking good.
That said,  hey, he only costs a bit more than Tanner Roark. While Roark has a big edge in durability, I'd be glad to take the risk on Bumgarner and I expect he'll be a more valuable pitcher next year.
3:42
To be clear, I'm not saying he's specifically "injury prone" or something. But the fact is, he had the shoulder injury. He has not returned to being the guy he once was. So there's not much reason to pay for one -- just one -- year of him on a valuation that bakes in all that much likelihood of a full bounceback.
(Still won't be shocked if he figures it out and is an ace, of course!)
Nick
3:42
Cubs trade options that make the offense better?
Jeffrey Todd
3:43
I mean ... I don't know. They could give up a somewhat lesser player for a somewhat better player with less control. But I am not aware of any obvious situations where they can do that.
3:44
They certainly have some guys who'd hold appeal to teams that are not full-throated contenders, but most of those teams have already traded away their best short-term assets.
Armchair GM
3:44
Should the Cubs trade Javy Baez?  I know he’s a cheapish SS option but if he puts up a Schoop line this year they may regret not selling high.
Jeffrey Todd
3:45
While we're on the subject ...
Should Cubs trade Javy Baez?
Yes (27.3% | 289 votes)
 
No (72.7% | 769 votes)
 
Total Votes: 1,058
RA JR
3:46
JTR trade talk ... are the Braves serious contenders or just mentioned to bump up the Marlins' price?
Jeffrey Todd
3:46
It's a bit of a tight squeeze given the presence of McCann, but they have to have interest still to a certain point.
Could always deal Flowers, also.
Pete Rose's Dog
3:47
Will the Reds get another SP, Roarke and Wood are just so,so...not much of an upgrade. If so who do you think? Do they have a chance at JTR? How about CF?
Jeffrey Todd
3:48
There are quite a few more SP options out there. Cinci might even be feeling good about finding a good deal on a big name. I agree that Roark and Wood aren't exactly top-line starters, but disagree they are "not much of an upgrade." That rotation has been a total mess. These guys are legit big league SPs.
Todd Jeffrey
3:49
Who goes off the board first, Kimbrel or Ottavino?
Jeffrey Todd
3:49
Would definitely pick the latter if I was staking $
Wayno
3:50
Cam you see Harper and Machado getting anything more than a 4-5 year deal at this point? It's pointless to go any farther...
Jeffrey Todd
3:50
I don't think I understand the point you are making. Why is it pointless? There's clearly interest beyond that number of years. There's also a strong argument to be made that a team should want to promise those players more than 4-5 years.
Will
3:51
As a Nationals fan, I really hope they do not re-sign Harper. Would rather have the nats save the money to spend elsewhere. Thoughts?
Jeffrey Todd
3:52
Given the buck they are throwing around, it doesn't seem really to be an either/or as far as this offseason goes. My guess is any Harper deal would kick the can down the road for his 2019 salary to accommodate the other spending that has already occurred.
3:53
It would certainly tie up future funds for quite some time. And force a tough situation on Adam Eaton. It's not an easy call, for sure, though the team is undeniably better with Harper than without him.
Derek
3:54
For teams with small contractual obligations in above average-large markets (White Sox), wouldn't it make sense to pay $100 million of the roughly $300 million it'd take to get Harper or Machado in the first 2 years? You'd save significant dough when other players reach their arbitration years, thus extending the competitive window...
Jeffrey Todd
3:54
No, because of the time value of money. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/timevalueofmoney.asp
3:56
If they were smart, they'd defer as much as possible but not consider the future obligations fully as "payroll" when the time comes. I personally think this is an element of the Nats' deferral strategy -- they have deep pockets, which allows this sort of approach. (It's also tied to cash flow and the MASN dispute, probably, but I don't think they are just foolishly deferring money.)
3:58
Re the Nats, this helps explain why the team is still spending even though it has huge hits from a balance-sheet/cash perspective this year on both Stras and Scherzer. Their salaries rise and fall every year, nominally, but they are still heavily deferred and the team can think of it however it wishes.
Bravos
3:58
When does the braves front office get back from their snooze fest?
Jeffrey Todd
3:59
They seem to be looking for a nice price on that outfielder, eh? I can understand passing on Cutch and Brantley. Maybe they will luck into Pollock at a bargain rate.
4:00
Also surely they have trade concepts in mind. I'm not surprised they are going this route. The team surely could spend more if it wants but it would rather not. It's a corporate-owned team, after all.
AA
4:00
Am I overplaying my hand with the waiting game for the right value, knowing that the Mets, Nats and Phillies have already upgraded and haven't finished yet?
Jeffrey Todd
4:02
It's not (just) AA ... it's an ownership-level thing. But certainly, yes, they do run a big risk here of getting caught in the division. Not because of the timing -- there are still plenty of fish in the sea -- but because a) they weren't really much better if at all than those other teams to begin with and b) those other teams are all pushing hard to get better right away.
(Re point a ... not taking anything away from a great season and nice group of talent on hand. But it's not like the Braves would have projected as a 98 win team with everyone else stalled below 90. Always was going to be a tough division in 2019.)
Doug
4:03
Jeffrey Todd
4:04
No
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