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Jeffrey Todd

3:33

San Antonio Spurs

Twins

3:33

I have seen a fair amount of negative comments about the twins two extensions today. Which surprises me, I like them both. What do you say Mr. Todd?

Jeffrey Todd

3:35

They are both premised on the team's expectations for those guys as rising players. Clearly they think both are going to outperform their track records. It's not hard to see the angle. In some ways it makes sense to target that kind of player for value. Also can easily see why those players were amenable to the deals.

Free Agent Fallout

3:35

You like the Twins extensions today? That does help explain their reluctance to go after big name FA. Hopefully Berrios is next in line...

Jeffrey Todd

3:36

I really am not sure I agree with this reasoning. They had literally zero on the future books before this. Nothing. And these are pretty small deals, all things considered.

Julio Pablo Martinez

3:36

Please feel free to continue ignoring Ranger questions...

Jeffrey Todd

3:37

I definitely am going to, unless I see one that surprises me by asking something worth answering. Really not sure what there is to say at this point. They added a bunch of health-risk pitchers. They traded Profar and inked Asdrubal. Now it's time to go to camp and get the season started and see what happens.

DeGrom

3:40

5 Years 125 Mil - Who hangs up?

Jeffrey Todd

3:40

JDG

*JdG

3:41

I mean I shouldn't be too dismissive. He is fairly old. But that still feels a bit light since he's going to earn 25-ish in 2020 in arb.

Brian

3:41

Are the Padres a contender if they sign Harper, Keuchel, and trade for 3B Franco?

Jeffrey Todd

3:42

I mean ... maybe. Franco is as much or more a wild card than just filling in while waiting for the young guys. Keuchel is probably a 2.5 win bump and Harper maybe a bit more. Maybe that draws them even on paper with the Rockies?

Dave

3:43

Is Carlos Gonzalez still a good player?

Jeffrey Todd

3:44

You hate to rule out a guy that has a certain established talent ceiling, but I think he's a platoon OF right now.

Mose

3:44

Does Hanley Ramirez play in the bigs this year? Think he'll get a camp invite anywhere?

Jeffrey Todd

3:44

He should get a camp invite IMO

But obviously hasn't taken a deal yet, so ... shrug

Ryan Madson

3:44

How much is my postseason showing effecting my market? Maybe I join the Red Sox so they can't torch me in the series again?

Jeffrey Todd

3:46

Seems like an easy guy to risk some $ on. He still throws gas, has impeccable K/BB numbers, etc. He had a lot poor fortune last year ... maybe also failed to make key pitches at key moments ... but for a respected veteran type who has had lots of success before (including an unreal 2017), and still has the physical tools, I think he would improve just about any bullpen.

Tigers

3:47

why wouldn't the Tigers sign Derek Dietrich?

Jeffrey Todd

3:47

He's sort of a left-handed-hitting Castellanos, isn't he? Not sure how he really moves the needle in any direction for them.

Doug

3:48

Can we do a poll about whether the Mets extend DeGrom before Opening Day?

Jeffrey Todd

3:48

Let's!

Will Mets get a deal done w deGrom by end of camp?

Yes (15.1% | 176 votes)

No (84.9% | 987 votes)

Total Votes: 1,163

Impatient

3:49

Wow, I need to read slower. I honestly thought the poll at the time said, "Should I answer questions?" I clicked yes. Having read it fully, I'm a no.

Jeffrey Todd

3:49

Everyone looking at those results should deduct one vote from "umyeah"

mikethemike

3:50

What would a Luis Severino extension look like?

Jeffrey Todd

3:52

Y'know, I would have guessed something like the Nola guarantee before that happened. I was surprised he ended up with that contract. It would be weird but maybe Severino settles for the same or more. He's a Super Two whereas Nola is a 3+ guy. The classic 2+ service class deal is the 5/35 + 2 options (Lester, Sale, et al). But Gio topped that at 5/42 and I can't see why Severino would be willing to go below that.

3:53

Nola deal was 4+1 (guarantee+option), not 5+2, so that's a big difference. That structure is what motivated that particular deal, I think. But I was still confused by the contract, because Nola was already all but certain to earn at least like half of what he is now being guaranteed, and he gave up his best shot at a truly massive FA deal.

Nola

3:53

How were the Phillies able to get such an insane deal for Nola? How bad is his agent? $45Mil for 4 years of a 10 WAR player... How bad does this hurt other young guys trying to get big free agent deals/extensions? Hard to say you should make more than someone who was so dominant last season.

Jeffrey Todd

3:53

Oh look a Nola question!

3:54

Let's look past the 10 WAR part. Firstly that's questionable ... Fangraphs had him at like 5.5. More importantly, it's largely irrelevant b/c the key here is what he was going to earn in arb.

3:55

If he had won his hearing and earned 6.7, especially, he'd have been on track to nearly earn 45 just through arb. Even if he lost (4.5, a number that was hard to defend for the Phils IMO), then he's still on the gravy train.

3:56

Like ... imagine if he lost the arb hearing and then blew out his elbow in camp. Worst case is he still gets 4.5 mil in 2019. Will Phillies tender him for 2020? Hell yes. So double that to 9 mil. Suppose he struggles or is hurt ... what do bounceback guys get in FA? Tyson Ross, Justin Masterson, Garrett Richards (15.5!) ... guys with anything like Nola's ability still get paid until it is proven conclusively that they are broken.

3:57

Point being: taking the 45 mil didn't really protect him in the way it would have a lesser player or one who wasn't already in arbitration. So I don't really think the trade off was worth the loss of upside in this case.

Chevy Chase

3:57

Tatis Jr to the Blue Jays, center a package around Gurriel, Stroman, Drury.....

Jeffrey Todd

3:58

Since I rolled my eyes at a deal in which the Padres got the Blue Jays' best prospect, I guess I ought to do the same in the inverse. Not close.

(Was referring to the earlier Vlad question. And not trying to insult anyone, just giving you my opinion!)

How could you trade Jay Buhner

3:59

Do you like what BVW has done? Do you think they could take the division?

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