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Jeffrey Todd
Hey! Sorry to those who wondered where my usual Thursday chat went. We have been working through some scheduling changes over here and it got complicated.
Not 100% sure yet but I may be switching to this time slot.
Anyway ... we are here now and that is what's important.
Leave questions ... answers begin in a few minutes.
Cubs over take the dodgers now ?
Jeffrey Todd
Not in my book. Dodgers still get to make their moves, too.
Madison BumBum
Phillies? I know they don’t really have too much in the farm to offer SF, but I could be a good guy in a rotation contending
Jeffrey Todd
There's plenty in the farm to offer. Every team in baseball has enough to get a MadBum rental. This isn't like the Red Sox landing Chris Sale.
And that's not me bashing Bumgarner.
Mike rizzo
Should I sell Scherzer at the deadline?
Jeffrey Todd
Look, if they are in tatters come July 28th then the Nats should absolutely listen. But it is way, way premature to pick at the corpse of the roster, because it isn't dead.
Even if they are totally out of it, that doesn't mean it's rebuilding time. The team is structured to win now. They could still move Scherzer, in theory, in hopes of a 2020 bounceback, but it'd take just the right deal. Seems quite a low likelihood, overall.
Did the Braves overpay for a partial season for Keuchel?
Jeffrey Todd
Seems like an awfully nice price to me with zero long-term commitment.
Now that the rays finished 2nd in the kimbrel running do you see them maybe doing a package deal for Trevor Bauer and brad hand from Cleveland?
Jeffrey Todd
Bauer-Hand is going to cost a mint in prospects. Presuming that the Indians decide to pack it in, which is premature but much more likely than the Nats, they'd still likely be looking to spur a quick reload with Lindor et al still in house. No doubt they'd set up a leaguewide bidding war for those two players.
Who’s next player to be dealt??⚾️
Jeffrey Todd
I guess I'll randomly choose ... Edwin Encarnacion?
We know Dipoto is in a dealing mood. He already did the Bruce deal and nearly moved Leake. Maybe he decided he better jump the market.
My gut says pitcher, but I wanted to be bold. So the veteran slugger, who is hitting rather well.
Is Minor pitching his way into the Rangers future instead of being on his way out at the deadline?
Jeffrey Todd
I actually think the better he is the harder it is not to sell. I know that Jon Daniels (TEX GM) says he thinks they really have a core coming together. And I know they want to gear up with the new ballpark. But .... there are tons of questions on that roster when you think about the next 2-3 years.
So much as it'd be nice to keep him or even extend him ... does that outweigh the possibility of selling 1.5 years of a really good, quite cheap SP on the trade market? I'm guessing it won't. Plus the better Minor throws, the higher the cost goes for a new deal.
The Twins once faced a decision like this. They scored big on Phil Hughes on a low-cost 3-year deal. Could have cashed him in but doubled down with an extension.
Seems necessary to a) Call up Cease and b) Trade some depth prospects for maybe a Stroman?
Jeffrey Todd
Necessary to what end, exactly? The White Sox still don't look like a playoff team. Or even really close to one.
Now they can go ahead and give Cease his shot. He's been pretty good but not off the charts at Triple-A. And I guess they could be in the market for a guy like Stroman, since he is controllable for another year. (More likely a clear contender pays more for him.) But I wouldn't consider near-term contention all that strongly in considering those kinds of moves.
High Jeff .. I think padres need a RP what do you think?
Jeffrey Todd
For sure. But basically every team within earshot of contention could improve its bullpen. The Pads have a really tough path with the Dodgers in the division. Maybe they can hang in the WC hunt and they shouldn't give up that possibility. But pushing in significant chips for a rental reliever feels questionable.
That said, I'm sure Preller has a good sense by now of what 40-man roster pressures and recent performance lapses from some younger players will mean for his near-future plans. Not hard to imagine some scenarios where they add some quality, somewhat controllable relief pitching while giving another team a shot at unlocking the full potential of one or more upper-level prospects/young MLB players.
So everyone there was wrong on Kimbrel
Jeffrey Todd
Everyone where? Here? At MLBTR?
I think we covered it correctly. The Cubs said very clearly they had no money. Like, in literally those words (nearly so). So we said that unless they found more (Ben Zobrist!) or decided to free up more money for mid-season moves, they wouldn't really line up.
From May 31, before the Cubs were reportedly involved: "The Cubs could clearly use Kimbrel, but their offseason payroll constraints were clear. Maybe they saved some money for in-season moves, but it’s rare to dig through the couch cushions for change and pull out a hundred dollar bill. We’re barely three months past owner Tom Ricketts declaring he had no more money to spend, and even if the Cubs aren’t paying Ben Zobrist’s full salary (which isn’t fully clear), they’re near the second luxury tax bracket. From a roster perspective, the Cubs are a perfect fit, but it’d require a pretty sizable pivot from ownership."
Can the twins add to their bullpen
Jeffrey Todd
Can and will.
What’s it take for Rox to get Marcus Stroman?
Jeffrey Todd
Get in line, man. Lots of Stro questions ... not surprising. I know what you all are thinking. You're not wrong. Dude had struggled, bouncing back, one more year of control. Perfect for my fav team! But also for others.
He looks like the same guy he was last year for the most part in key peripherals. Just better fortune and perhaps he's also buckled down and doing a better job of making key pitches.
Jays are in a spot not-unlike the Rangers with Minor, except that it seems much less likely Stroman would jump at an extension (just on the surface, since he's young and hasn't had Minor's huge arm issues) and the Jays are totally out of the postseason picture. Considering all angles, Stroman seems the likelier to go but I think both are on the high side of the range of likelihood.
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