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Jeffrey Todd

4:20

BIG LEAGUE CHEW

Frustrated Angel fan

4:21

Jeffrey, do not want Angels to wait on Cole, should they get another starter first so not to be left with nothing? Hamels, Burgarner, Roark or some other pitcher first.

Jeffrey Todd

4:21

How about Wheeler?

Stan Lee the Manly

4:23

What team has surprised you the most in how they have performed this year, whether it be over or under performing?

Jeffrey Todd

4:23

Think I'd take the Pirates on the low side and the Twins on the high side

Scooty B

4:24

If you think Donaldson can get close to 90 on 3-years, why wouldn't JDM expect to get 3/75 on the market? Sure he's AL-only, but his road numbers exceed his Fenway numbers.

Jeffrey Todd

4:24

The AL-onliness impacts his market. Highly stratified American League. Donaldson has a lot more teams to shop his services to.

Jeff Todd

4:25

"And he's older than at the time of his last deal"
Hot Take alert!!
;)

Jeffrey Todd

4:25

Hey was I wrong???

Venters

4:25

Myth, man, or legend?

Jeffrey Todd

4:26

Can't wait til he's pitching at age 56 with an orangutan arm.

"Just sew it on, doc. I still got this."

Eileen Onner

4:26

Todd, wondering why stat-geeks like here on MLBTR don't seem to value RBI? Is it because most have never played past t-ball and don't realize hitting with runners on is really kind of important to win games?

Jeffrey Todd

4:27

I am no pro ballplayer, but did play through high school and for quite a while in high-quality mens' leagues. Not that it means anything.

4:28

Just please try to understand this. Nobody disputes that hitting with runners on is important. It's just that there's no reason to believe that the number of RBIs accumulated in a given season reflects a particular skill at that task.

RBI is more a function of a) how good you are at hitting anyway and b) what other guys on your team do

4:29

If there is a "hitting with runners on" skill, it would need to be assessed by different means and likely wouldn't really be reliably determined until a guy was too old to tell anymore.

4:30

I like to cite the catcher framing thing. It was long appreciated as having value, even though it couldn't be quantified. Then, it could be quantified, and everyone of all stripes appreciated it.

4:31

This is ... sort of the opposite. RBI is a misleading stat as it has been used historically. It doesn't tell what it has been believed to say. There may still be some underlying thing -- a combination of good nerves, situational awareness, exceptional bat control, etc -- but we'll have to devise better ways of identifying it.

Todd

4:32

The Astros have spring training in Florida? What was Andrew Miller thinking?

Jeffrey Todd

4:32

I might've screwed up some aspect of that. Maybe it was that the Yanks trained close to his house.

4:33

*I did screw up some aspect of that. Can't remember exactly what. Bottom line: geography mattered.

random braves fan

4:33

what would have to happen, so that the next offseason would not be as boring as the last one ?

Jeffrey Todd

4:35

Was it, though? I don't know. I would find it boring if all the action happened in one day. I think it would be best if it unfolded over a long time but was almost entirely wrapped up in mid-January or so, giving everyone time to ramp up for camp and get excited about actual baseball. Not sure how to make that happen other than to trust that the market has adjusted somewhat and will have less trouble finding resolution. (No, I don't think a signing deadline is a good idea.)

Jose

4:36

It's not the best player award. It's the most valuable award.

Jeffrey Todd

4:36

In that case, I choose Mike Trout

4:37

I mean, if you want to have arguments about whether a guy has to be on a playoff team and all that ... whatever. I don't care. I don't find it interesting to debate that. If you tell me Trout is ineligible, then I will pick someone else. But I believe he's well over 1 WAR ahead of the field in the AL. While I would never advocate for WAR alone to dictate anything, that's a pretty hefty margin.

Sen. Smith

4:38

a pack of big league chew says Rendon gets $200+

Jeffrey Todd

4:39

I love Rendon, but that presumes 7 years at 30-ish mil. Or 6 at an AAV that shatters records. Given recent trends, I'm going a bit lower than that.

Sad Mets Fan

4:39

Shouldn't there be a 'middle path' with Wilson Ramos and Syndergaard? Ramos seems indifferent to framing. Shouldn't that be a relatively easy fix (for anyone but the Mets) and keep Ramos' bat in the lineup without stealing strikes from his pitchers.

Jeffrey Todd

4:40

Ramos isn't indifferent. He just ... is what he is to an extent. Everyone isn't good at every aspect of the game. He has some significant limitations as a catcher but is a great hitter. We don't know what he has already done to work on it, but I certainly wouldn't assume he just doesn't care.

Billington

4:40

Why no RAYS questions answered, their shocking the surprise playoff team?!

Jeffrey Todd

4:41

Not sure I saw any, honestly. But ... agree, great season. Amazing how they extract value.

RBI's are a skill

4:42

Because you have to be skilled to make them happen, and some are clearly better than others.

Jeffrey Todd

4:43

This is utterly conclusory. I don't disagree that RBIs reflect some skill -- not like you can get a lot of them if you are a terrible hitter, even if you always hit with guys in scoring position -- but they are an incredibly imperfect tool for assessing the thing they've long been claimed to reflect.

Venters

4:46

Yanks Tampa astros are Kissimmee

Jeffrey Todd

4:46

Now I've thoroughly confused myself ... I am going to have to revisit this tale I told about Andrew Miller and figure out what it was I was trying to remember. I will do that and report back next week!

4:47

Thank you everyone for the chat, talk soon!

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