MLBTR Live Chat With Jason Martinez: January 3, 2018
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Jason Martinez
So, I guess the Wade Davis signing wasn't the deal that finally got this offseason kickstarted. I propose a 2nd Winter Meetings. This one should be in San Diego, though.
I'm working on my Fantasy Draft Kit and have projections done for about 600 players so far. Feel free to let me know here if you're interested in knowing what I'm projecting for any player in 2018.
Chances Hamilton is in CF for REDS on opening day
Jason Martinez
I'll give it a 75% chance. Giants make sense, but might be too many good values on the free agent market. Might as well get Jarrod Dyson and/or Cameron Maybin.
Odds that the White Sox are actually a destination for Moustakas?
Jason Martinez
Pretty good, I think. They're one of the only teams in need of a 3B who can most likely give him a long-term deal and big $. Moustakas would have to be sold that they can return to contention by '19.
Can you come up with a legitimate/good reason for the Padres to spend $140 million on Eric Hosmer? I can't
Jason Martinez
Here's why I'm on board with it. If I ran an MLB team, I would never give $140MM to a pitcher (too risky) and I would never give it to a player over the age of 30 (too many years post-prime). If Hosmer wasn't a 1B, the Padres couldn't afford him because the price would be much higher. They don't really have any position players on the team that are extension candidates anytime soon.  They view Hosmer as a clubhouse leader who should be a very good player for a majority of the contract.
One more thing ... he's not blocking anyone at 1B. They could shop Myers or he can move to RF. Hunter Renfroe can boost his trade value by destroying AAA pitching for another few months.
Pine Tar
Last 7 year contract that worked out well for team?
Jason Martinez
Not too many 7-year contracts have been given out to players who have reached free agency. Chris Davis' isn't turning out well, but probably a bad idea to give that deal to a 30-year old 1B. Jayson Werth was good for about half of his deal. A lot of injuries, but I think it was about what you'd expect from a guy entering his age-32 season. Hosmer is getting a deal from age 28-34. That's most of his prime.
James Franco
Should Rays sell high on Archer because of a dearth of top-of-rotation options?
Jason Martinez
The Rays should sell high on Archer and I have to think they're trying. I'm guessing the price is very high and they're not going to budge. In case you haven't noticed, there's not much of a market for position players and there are only a few reliable starting pitchers available. Archer's value should be huge.
I think the Nats need to try and get Archer. Does Soto and Fedde and MAT get it done?
Jason Martinez
I don't think the Nats have enough to get that done without including Victor Robles.
Are GMs finally coming to their senses regarding loooooooong expensive FA contracts ?
Jason Martinez
It's a combination of there being more good position players than available starting jobs and pitchers are just too risky. So unless it's an elite player in his prime, I'm not expecting too many guys getting bigger-than-expected deals.
What is your suprise AL team this year? Too soon to call?
Jason Martinez
Difficult to call because of the slow offseason, but I think the Jays have the best chance to bounce back. And I believe that even if they trade Donaldson. They have a chance to add 2-3 good hitters without spending a ton of $.
Canadian brewcrew
Chase Anderson projection please
Jason Martinez
I have him falling back down to earth some, but still expecting a pretty good season ... 13-11, 3.38 ERA, 177 IP, 163 H, 53 BB, 159 K.
Atlanta add Realmuto/ Yelich for what Package
Jason Martinez
I don't see it for a couple reasons ... 1) Division rival trade will makes it at least slightly less likely. Marlins don't want to see those guys so often after they trade him.  2) Braves have bigger needs than catcher (Flowers/Suzuki were great in '17) and OF (Acuña, Inciarte and Markakis are fine).  If they trade Markakis, there are plenty of good values to pick up in free agency for LF.
By the way, my darkhorse team for Yelich/Realmuto is the Oakland A's.
Mike Hazen
Any news on Lucroy?  Dbacks seem like a great fit.
Jason Martinez
Haven't heard a thing. Dbacks seem like a good fit. I'm guessing that the 2-3 teams who are interested are waiting for his asking price to drop. I could see the Angels, Mariners and Nats having some interest.
Any chance the Dodgers actually keep Kemp and let him at least platoon in the OF? He might make a solid duo with Joc.
Jason Martinez
I don't think they can trade him, so it's very possible they at least hold onto him thru Spring Training and determine whether it's worth keeping him around. I think he'll help vs LHP. Not sure if he's too much of a liability in the OF and in the clubhouse.
Alex Cobb <,>, or = 16 million/year?  Who pays him?
Jason Martinez
I think he gets closer to $20MM and I think several teams will make a competitive offer. Cubs or Yankees, in my opinion. Twins are a possibility if they miss out on Darvish/Arrieta/Lynn.
Jay Bruce
Should the Giants go after Bruce for 3 years and sign Austin Jackson while Duggar gets ready for CF?
Jason Martinez
Not a bad plan. Jackson won't repeat what he did in '17, but he'll bring great value on a 1-yr deal.
Gleyber Torres projection? Also, no way he is opening day starter right? Gotta keep him under control that extra year...
Jason Martinez
Unlikely to make the Opening Day roster, but I currently have him projected for 537 PAs (initial projection: .271/.328/449; 17 HR, 29 2B, 60 RBI, 8 SB). Could be closer to 400-450 PAs if they sign a stop-gap 2B.
Brett Kaplan
Pace of Game.... has it been good for game or not in your opinion?
Jason Martinez
Doesn't affect us. More baseball is better for diehard fans, right? But the majority of baseball fans are casual fans who aren't willing to invest more than 3 hours on a baseball game with so many pitching changes and guys stepping out of the box so often. So I think some changes are necessary to improve conversion % of casual-to-diehard.
Who is the most likely second year player to make a huge impact?
Jason Martinez
I think Berrios is going to continue to get better. I think Margot takes a step forward. Moncada could break out. Not a lot of pressure. Not a lot of spotlight. He could still have some ups-and-downs, but he could put up huge numbers if he gets 600 PAs (30+ 2Bs, 20+ HRs, 20+ SB).
Kerley Pubes
Do the Astros have the prospect package required to acquire Realmuto?
Jason Martinez
Yes. I can see that. They have the prospects. McCann/Gattis can probably give them one more solid season, but acquiring Realmuto sets them up at catcher thru at '20.
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