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MLBTR Live Chat With Tim Dierkes
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Phillies Phan
2:33
What do you think of the phillies GM comments on not signing Machado? Something on the line of "we had our valuation". It is a far cry from "stupid Money"
Tim Dierkes
2:34
Having been doing this chat I haven't caught those comments yet.  In a way, free agency is binary - you either get the player or you don't.  If the Phils walk away with Harper at a similar price, I don't think fans would complain.
Ed-c
2:34
You think Gio, Keuchel, Bundy or Duffy or even Michael Fulmer is going to make San Diego a playoff team.    Even with Machado, they are at least 3 years from Challenging the Dodgers
Tim Dierkes
2:35
I didn't say that.  Keuchel + Gio though would push the Padres firmly into the WC mix.  I think you're overconfident about the Dodgers, though.
Cubbie Blue
2:35
What's more laughable - Cubs hurting for cash or Cubs signing Harper?
Tim Dierkes
2:35
Wow, I can't decide.
2:36
More comical statement:
The Cubs don't have any more money. (76.1% | 813 votes)
 
The Cubs will sign Bryce Harper. (23.9% | 256 votes)
 
Total Votes: 1,069
Optimistic White Sox Fan
2:36
Besides Arenado, who are possible big name free agents available next season?
Tim Dierkes
2:38
Paul Goldschmidt, Xander Bogaerts, Anthony Rendon, J.D. Martinez, Aaron Hicks, Madison Bumgarner, Chris Sale, possibly Stephen Strasburg, Justin Verlander, and...of course...my boy Rich Hill
Turanna
2:39
Why do we let rebuilding teams get away with not trying to sign big-ticket FAs when elite players with years of control could net huge prospect returns after 1-2 years of salary absorption?
Tim Dierkes
2:40
That's usually not true for a free agent - for most free agents, they are less valuable a couple of years into their deal.  It's just rare for a star to reach free agency at 26.
Rosenthal
2:40
FYI...Sox deal was apparently 8/$250M + incentives/options that could add up to $350M.  Lower guarantee, higher ceiling
Tim Dierkes
2:41
Yeah, I mean, an additional $50MM in guaranteed money is huge, so it's hardly a surprise Machado chose the Padres' offer.  I'd be curious to see what $100MM in incentives looks like.  Also wondering if the White Sox had a similar opt-out clause in there, because the one the Padres gave him has to be worth more than $20MM.
Evaschuk
2:41
Do you think the Yankees are regretting adding Stanton after seeing Harper still available
Tim Dierkes
2:43
No, I still think the Stanton deal was good for them.  It's also notable that they didn't take a huge luxury tax hit on that contract as compared to a possible $30MM+ per year.
Austin
2:43
There's no way Ken Williams was *actually* surprised Manny didn't sign with them, right??
Tim Dierkes
2:44
Yes, I think he was genuine in saying he was shocked.  It's not as if there were media reports saying the Padres would go to $300MM.  The White Sox made a guess that the Padres wouldn't go that high.
Neil
2:44
You stated that you think the Dodgers win the NL West with relative ease and in the next breath tell a chatter that they may be overconfident about the Dodgers...I think this may be the Rockies year to win their first pennant...
Tim Dierkes
2:45
Yes, I think both things are true.  1) the Dodgers are a 93 win team and no other NL West team is close and 2) a projected 93 win team could easily win, say, 87 and 3) there's certainly nothing suggesting the Padres can't pass the Dodgers in 2020 and beyond.
BK
2:45
Give me % odds Arte comes out of nowhere and signs Harper?  The one consistent take on the Angels FA signing were they were reporting absolutely nowhere until they were literally completed.  Trout/Harper would be SO exciting.
Tim Dierkes
That's not true at all.  Odds that Arte signs Harper...2%.
BRAD
2:48
Why does the Ricketts family keep saying there is no money? $500 Million in revenue last year....
Tim Dierkes
2:48
Barring some sort of leak, we'll never know the Cubs' profits.  Obviously people are skeptical that they are not able to spend more on player payroll.
Doug
2:48
Harper ultimately signs a contract that is
1. less than Machado’s in total value
2. more than Machado’s in total value but less than Stanton’s record value contract
3. more than both Machado’s and Stanton’s contracts, but less than Greinke’s AAV
4. more than Machado, Stanton, and Greinke
Tim Dierkes
2:49
I'll take 3
PATigersFan
2:49
how can you say "likely" the Padres pose a threat and also say they're an 80-win team?      or are you assuming the threat comes IF they address their starting pitching??
Tim Dierkes
2:49
I already lost track of exactly what I said, but yes, the Dodgers should take the Padres seriously if they add a decent SP or two and perhaps less seriously in 2019 if they do not.
Announced Attendance
2:50
What was the attendance of the chat today?  Seems like a record.
Tim Dierkes
2:50
We have 1,969 people in the room at present.  I think it's been higher maybe during the Winter Meetings.
Max happy Padres fan
2:50
What do you think about the Padres grabbing Keuchel and Buchholz? Buchholz 7-2, 2.01 last year, great under the radar value maybe 2-3mil per year. 2 competent starters for a staff that really needs it.
Tim Dierkes
2:51
Buchholz is worth grabbing for a couple mil, but I don't know that he's healthy or could be counted on for even 100 innings.  So he's not the answer - he's a calculated risk.
Moonarc
2:51
Do you think San Diego’s aesthetic beauty, and Cali location made a difference? Chicago is way too cold throughout the year compared to SD
Tim Dierkes
2:51
Having been in both cities recently, I feel that Chicago's nasty winters help one better appreciate good weather.  However, I've never lived in a year-round warm climate.
Jeff Luhow, Astros GM
2:52
Chances of me resigning both Verlander and Cole after this season?  Can I at least keep 1 of them?
Tim Dierkes
2:53
First question: 0.5%.  Chances of signing one of them: 35%.  I think Verlander more likely than Cole, because Cole may be flirting with records whereas Verlander at least will be on a shorter term.  But, I think both players leave if I had to guess.
Don’t Mess with the Farhan
2:53
If Bumgarner was a FA this offseason, what is your estimated contract for him?
Tim Dierkes
2:55
I think MadBum would top $100MM, but probably would have fallen short of Corbin.  Teams may see him as a 4.00 ERA guy moving forward, after 2018.
Jeff
2:55
Still weird there were not more suitors for Manny though. Right?
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