JotCast | MLBTR Live Chat With Tim Dierkes

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Tim Dierkes

2:56

I think so, yes. I predicted a 13-year, $390MM contract for Machado (cringe) because I thought he'd have a half-dozen teams legitimately going for him. That proved untrue.

Bryce Harper

2:56

Should I take a 1-2 year deal with the Yankees, put up ABSURD numbers in that ballpark with that lineup, probably win a title, and then hit the market again at 28?

Tim Dierkes

2:57

No...Trevor Bauer aside, few players want to go year to year to maximize dollars when they could otherwise sign a massive contract. If Bryce has to settle for the same contract Manny did (perhaps with more opt-outs or an earlier one) then he would do that instead of signing for one year.

Manny's Bro

2:58

DO you think Yonder's marriage is in trouble?

Big joe Mufferaw

2:58

So... Why are teams waiting til ST to sign Free Agents when they still end up making their big money? (upper tier FA that is)

Tim Dierkes

2:59

There is a proven correlation: the longer teams wait, the lower the prices goes. If the team is willing to risk not getting the player, it's a good strategy.

The Fonz

2:59

San Diego, like every other team, gets more than $100 million each year just from the MLB media deal alone. They have more than enough money to do whatever they want...also like every other team.

Tim Dierkes

2:59

I've seen several people write that any MLB team could have done this Machado deal (while remaining profitable) and I think that's correct.

The last 5 years

3:00

How much does it hurt the "good/bad deal" nature of the Machado contract that he has an opt-out, in that Padres will probably only be paying the last 5 years if Manny isn't worth it?

Tim Dierkes

3:01

Opt-out clauses like the one Machado got completely favor the player. So yes, the Padres accepted downside risk here. However, signing Machado to a ten-year term with no opt-out would theoretically have cost at least $20MM more.

Ben Waitin

3:01

Due to the past two offseasons, why doesn't MLBPA just negotiate the FA period to start January 1st and run through March 1st?

Tim Dierkes

3:01

Because it would be bad for players.

Alex

3:02

Chances Hosmer has one of his Odd-Year seasons and leads the upstart Padres to a Division Champ? Crazier things have happened...

Tim Dierkes

3:03

I generally just buy the project on Hoz...about a 2 WAR player, maybe 10% better than league average at hitting. It's not a contract you're happy with, but he's not dead weight either.

Alright, time for me to call it. Exciting day for Padres fans!

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