JotCast | NLDS Games 4 Chat

NLDS Games 4 Chat

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Jay Jaffe

3:04

Hey folks, good afternoon and welcome to our NLDS Braves-Cardinals Game 4 chat. Tony Wolfe will be joining me. First pitch is coming in four minutes, and right now, in the only game that's live, the Rays are pouring it on the Astros 8-1 in the fourth inning, so it looks like that series will not end with a sweep

Manta

3:06

Just a question, but why aren't we talking about the Rays-Astros?

Jay Jaffe

3:07

We didn't have enough bodies available to cover all four games today, and this time slot worked better for me when I planted my flag in our spreadsheet.

Roger

3:07

How long does Keuchel go with the platoon disadvantage and Teheran and Tomlin available?

Tony Wolfe

3:10

I have to think Keuchel gets a little bit of wiggle room. It isn't as though Teheran is dominant against righties, though he did pitch well against St. Louis this season (10 IP, 1 R, 4 H).

Jay Jaffe

3:11

I imagine this will be dictated by results to some degree. He's at a disadvantage (.314 wOBA vs RHB career, .267 vs LHB, against a lineup with 2 lefties). With a 2-1 lead, he definitely has a longer leash than if the Braves were down 2-1

Charlie Swanson

3:16

Braves in 4 -- also, thoughts on the de-juiced ball theory for the playoffs?

Jay Jaffe

3:18

Have we heard from Justin Verlander yet? I'm interested to hear what he thinks. Scoring is down about 18% relative to the regular season (from 4.83 runs per team per game to 3.96) and homers are down about 23% (from 1.39 to 1.08), but I'm not sure how that compares to years past, and it's worth noting that we've had a higher share of front-rotation types throwing innings thus far, since we're only talking about 2-3 Division Series games per team

3:19

until we get at least some amount of anecdotal information from pitchers and a larger sample size of games, I'd be very skeptical that the ball has changed. And even then, i'll be at least somewhat skeptical.

Tony Wolfe

3:20

Right, I'd be hesitant to draw any conclusions from the small set of games we've had so far. This might be naive of me, but I honestly just think the number of dominant arms we've seen has been what's suppressing offense.

Jay Jaffe

3:20

yup

3:21

i'm working on something about the starter/reliever balance and I think a good bit of it is just that so far

Adam

3:22

Do either of these two teams match up better than the other against the Dodgers? The Nationals?

Tony Wolfe

3:23

I think the Braves are better set up to score with LA.

Jay Jaffe

3:24

I haven't thought about it too hard — there's enough to try to analyze for actual matchups — but the Cardinals hitters were about 10 points worse in wRC+ versus lefties and the Dodgers have a lefty-heavy rotation (Kershaw, Ryu, Hill) so they might favor the Nationals; the Braves were more platoon-neutral (103 vs RHP, 99 vs LHP).

and there's Paul Goldschmidt with a towering solo homer on a 3-1 fastball

Tony Wolfe

3:25

If that Goldschmidt stroke would have stayed in the yard, I might have started listening on the de-juiced ball stuff.

Jay Jaffe

3:26

And there's Ozuna going yard too, so that theory is losing steam as we type

Tony Wolfe

3:26

Woah.

Jay Jaffe

3:28

439 feet on that one. No distance estimate published for Goldy's shot

Tony Wolfe

3:29

111.7 mph exit velo for Goldschmidt, 107.4 for Ozuna.

Josh

3:31

With Miley probably going to eat up innings here, does HOU go JV in Game 4, Cole in Game 5?

Tony Wolfe

3:32

I'd be really surprised if they did anything else

Jay Jaffe

3:33

it sounds like they're probably starting Jose Urquidy, inexperience and all, and could have Verlander available out of the bullpen if need be, and still have Cole on 4 days of rest for Game 5

Tony Wolfe

3:34

Well look at me, being surprised

Eel Ffilc

3:36

What's the rationale in having Monday day playoff games? I don't get it.

Jay Jaffe

3:36

less overlap in games. You can't put 4 games at night and not take a bite out of the audience for each. This isn't ideal but there's really no winning when things are this hectic.

3:37

keep in mind that the Game 4 teams have to travel, and they do have a travel day but they and the league would prefer to get them out earlier rather than later (hence the Dodgers-Nats g4 starting before Twins-Yanks g3)

James

3:38

If Verlander is available at all, doesn't it make more sense to start him and milk him for all you've got? Even if he only gives 4 or 5 innings you still have a rested bullpen and Cole in your back pocket for game 5. Don't want to lose the series and not maximize innings from the aces.

Jay Jaffe

3:41

I would probably lean that way, yes. I'm going on what an Astros beat guy reported re Urquidy. We'll almost certainly have an answer within a couple hours anyway.

stever20

3:41

also isn't another thing that most years this is Columbus Day and thus some folks off?

Jay Jaffe

3:41

Interesting point; I haven't checked but you may be right

Tony Wolfe

3:44

The other advantage to pitching Verlander in Game 4, because of the ALCS starting Saturday, is he would still be pretty well-rested to start Game 1 of the next series should they advance.

Andrew

3:44

As a Cardinals fan, these start times are terrible. Would the ratings really be worse if they had more evening games?

Tony Wolfe

3:46

I think they'd take a pretty big hit if they had to share Washington and LA's audience, even if it was for half the game or so

Jay Jaffe

3:46

I don't have any data but I suspect that's what MLB has concluded. Which isn't to say that they're right, but this is a challenging setup regardless, and you only have so much advance time to tweak things due to the teams and time zones involved. I haven't compared this year's schedule to last but I do recall that there were years with an extra off day thrown into the DS and that was horrible. This keeps teams on more even footing, so I think that's preferable, ratings be damned

Tony Wolfe

3:47

And I guess as a neutral fan in these (and virtually all) playoffs, I'd rather not have to choose between two elimination games going on at once.

Charles Finley

3:47

Do the Yankees regret not making a bigger offer to Dallas Keuchel yet?

Jay Jaffe

3:48

I thought they made a mistake not signing him but looking right now at his numbers (3.75 ERA, 4.72 FIP), I can't imagine they're lamenting it too hard even given their rotation issues. Even losing German, they felt pretty good about their rotation going into the postseason thanks to the return of Severino and the final 1/3 of the season from Paxton.

Charles Finley

3:49

Will the Phillies throw up their hands and trade Vince Velasquez this winter?

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