JotCast | NLDS Games 4 Chat

NLDS Games 4 Chat

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Jay Jaffe

3:50

the Phillies spent much of the season throwing up INTO their hands... oh wait. Eh, I can't imagine VV has significantly more trade value than he does as a potential late-game reliever.

Tony Wolfe

3:51

I'd be interested to see what another team might be able to do with him, but as Jay said, I'm not sure the risk of him hitting his stride elsewhere is worth whatever the Phillies would get back.

Russell

3:52

With Dallas not fooling anyone and getting a lot of contact do you think the Braves pull Dallas early?

Jay Jaffe

3:55

Again, the Braves lead the series. This game is still within reach. The bullpen ain't great. I don't think Snitker's going to rush into things and pull him after 3 innings. Maybe, as with Game 1, he won't get through 5, but unless this becomes a 3-4 run game, I think he'll at least get through the order a second time

Tony Wolfe

3:55

It is a lot of hard contact so far, but I wouldn't necessarily say he isn't fooling anyone either. I think he's still got some rope.

stever20

3:56

how long do you think Severino can go tonight? 5 innings?

Jay Jaffe

3:56

Somewhere between 5-6 unless he burns a lot of pitches in high-stress innings

Alfredo

3:58

If Yanks win but Astros lose, will they push the TB-HOU game from 4 to 8 EST?

Tony Wolfe

3:58

Yes. Here's the schedule: https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mlb-postseason-schedule

Jay Jaffe

3:58

ah, good call, Tony.

Tanaka

4:00

Why do I remember how to pitch in the fall?

Jay Jaffe

4:02

Some of it may be temperament — Tanaka is pretty unflappable, from what I've observed, and he's been through these situations before. But I think it has as much to do with the level of information and preparation that the Yankees provide their pitchers for a postseason start as anything

After his start the other night (which I covered), he said, “I actually don’t get too caught up on being good in the postseason and all that. Come to think about it, I think it’s still a small sample.”

Loved that!

4:04

and there's the Braves with their first run on singles by Swanson and Acuña Jr. and a sac fly by Albies. Good baserunning by Dansby, and probably a bit more leash for Keuchel

stever20

4:08

If the Dodgers lose Ryu this winter, are they going to be forced to go out and get a replacement? Know they have some young guys- but the last 1/3 of the season with Kershaw has to be concerning. Last 7 starts/8 outings of regular season he had a 4.35 ERA and 6.00 FIP, and then in game 1 he got hit fairly hard as well. Are they really going to want to go into the season with Buehler as a clear #1, Kershaw as an aging #2, and then young guys or Maeda?

Tony Wolfe

4:09

Hudson got a big K there, but it seems notable that he didn't get any chases that inning. He got four chases in each of the first two frames.

Jay Jaffe

4:11

I imagine they're going to sign somebody to a longer-term deal this winter, whether it's Ryu or a FA (Cole? Strasburg if he opts out?) to help bridge the gap; and don't forget, Rich Hill is also a free agent. They have a high volume of internal options to go behind Buehler, Kershaw, and Maeda (May, Gonsolin, Stripling, Urias) but some of them might work better in the bullpen, and they LOVE having depth and moving guys in and out of the rotation.

Fangraph's Lurker

4:11

Joe Girardi has been a great joy to listen as an announcer. Very informed, very insightful.

Tony Wolfe

4:12

And I think how they feel about Urias will have a lot to do with how much pressure they feel to go get a big name replacement. If they think he's ready to break out, then they may elect to stand pat.

Jay Jaffe

4:13

I've quite enjoyed him in this capacity, too. But then from a media relations point I always liked dealing with him as Yankees manager. Obviously he wants to go back to the dugout but he'll always have broadcasting as an option, I think.

Randy Marsh

4:13

Re:Stever20

There's a nonzero chance they go after Wheeler in FA for sure, but the farm is oozing w/ talent that KErsh still will be the no. 3 starter most likely>

Urias, May, Gonsolin are all probably starting more & same with Stripling, but another no 2 starter type would help immensely

Jay Jaffe

4:13

Wheeler is a good one to add to that list and may make more sense as a Ryu alternative - upside, but won't break the bank.

Go Barves!

4:15

Freddie doesn't look right. Elbow may be bothering him more than he's letting on. Swinging and missing at hittable pitches in the zone. How bad does he have to look for Snit to move him down the lineup?

Tony Wolfe

4:17

I think that'll probably rely more on conversations between those two and the trainers. The sample size is small enough that I'm not sure any lack of production would force someone's hand.

4:18

I do agree that he looks considerably less than 100 percent though.

Jay Jaffe

4:18

i'm skeptical it comes to a move unless he communicates that he's in pain. He came in to today with a .409 xwOBA despite going just 2-for-11, which suggests to me his quality of contact is pretty decent

Patrick

4:22

can you think of another team that made the playoffs with a WRC+ below 100? The cards hitting is awful ?

Jay Jaffe

4:23

There are a whole bunch even in just the two Wild Card era. Using OPS+ because it rarely differs by more than a couple points from wRC+ and because it's easier to search via the Play Index, here's the search results. 34 out of 80 teams in that span below 100, These Cardinals are 6th lowest http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/Cp1RK

Tony Wolfe

4:24

Heck, last year's Braves were at 97 wRC+.

Jay Jaffe

4:25

Welp, i think Marcell Ozuna has figured out Dallas Keuchel

4:26

429 feet on that homer. And we now have 376 on Goldschmidt's

4:27

And yet, just solo homers because Keuchel has only allowed one single and hasn't walked anybody

Eel Ffilc

4:28

You think Girardi lands a managing gig this offseason?

Jay Jaffe

4:30

More likely than not, yes. I think he makes some sense for the Cubs and Mets but I'm not sure he's willing to eat enough **** and take as little $$$$ to work for the Wilpons. Offhand I'd guess he gets at least one more interview besides those.

and there we have our answer on Keuchel, after he finally issues his first walk.

Tony Wolfe

4:32

Girardi was the Reds' top choice last year and pulled himself out of the search, saying he wanted to go broadcast another year and keep spending time with family. He's willing to be picky if he isn't all in on something.

Jay Jaffe

4:32

St. Louis is outperforming their Marcell projections in this NLDS

Fat Matt

4:34

I feel like a lot of what I've read on the Yankees lately is about Stanton needing to produce and maybe not being ready after so much time away. To me he's having better at bats than Sanchez has, and Gary only had a couple games coming off his injury.

Jay Jaffe

4:35

Whoops, I typed the answer before the question on that one.

4:36

Anyway, Statcast suggests that Stanton is closer to health, with an 88.5 mph average exit velo and a healthy .505 xwOBA, compared to 79.6 (cringe) and .266 for Sanchez.

OTOH, Stanton has looked terrible in the outfield, but Sanchez has been OK behind the plate, with the caveat that I didn't get a TV-level view of him in Game 2 since I was in the press box and only looking up at the pitch replays generally when there was contact.

Max Fried

4:37

Why am I not in the rotation over Keuchel?

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